Some excellent posts!
Please correct me if wrong, but I believe it's safe to assume HSR is dead. If they can't even keep the fantasy fed, (the reality never was there to begin with), then it's not going to happen. Not to mention that if any cash is going to be thrown around, it has to benefit GO and VIA HFR.
Pardon the reverse order on some of these quotes:
Even if not HSR, there is a need for all-day 2-way electrified service of some sort to KW eventually,
"Eventually" is the key word. It's not going to happen anytime soon. KeithZ asked in a GO forum if (gist) "is there going to be any electrification before the next election"? I hesitated from answering, as I'm very cynical on events, and some other posters are much more believing in announcements. I don't fault their enthusiasm....but I just don't see it happening. When we see it started on the UPX/Bramalea stretch, I might change my mind. I honestly believe we'll see it as a result of VIA HFR before we do by way of Metrolinx, and even with VIA, only because it will be a newly built line with massive investment behind it.
So should the Kitchener Go line be extended to London Paul?
Paul gave an excellent answer with fodder for more discussion, but it brings up a point conditional on whether the Northern Tier is upgraded further or not. VIA have already invested a bundle in signalling, and yet speeds haven't notably increased, for VIA or GO. One question I have is whether London would be better served by increased investment on the southern tier, and a second question is so cynical I hate myself for posing this: "Is it even worthwhile at all to throw any amount of money at trying to improve rail service to London?"
GO to K/W can definitely be improved, Paul addressed that well, save for the short stretch west of Guelph with "Slow Orders" on it. That has to be addressed for both VIA and GO, it's a huge time waster.
Let me throw this in the mix: If VIA does decide to consolidate operations on the southern tier, and GO assumes all passenger on the northern one, how much traffic is there between London and K/W to even make GO to London worthwhile? It's going to take a bundle of cash just to get service to K/W down to a reasonable time. The two hours + now is ridiculous. There has to be an arbitrary cut-off to GO's mandate, and K/W is it, at least for rail. Brantford has only just got bus service via GO. At some point, the mandate beyond those destinations becomes VIA's.
Paul discusses it:
Assuming GO proceeds with the Halton bypass and a fourth track on the Weston, all that's needed is a second track from Silver to Kitchener. That would be enough to give GO 15 minute electric RER to Mount Pleasant and frequent peak trains to Kitchener. West of Mount Pleasant, I would give VIA all the off- peak Kitchener-Toronto business, but an hourly VIA train with comingled RER is doable at some level of service.
It could all be GO, or it could be a GO/VIA joint use arrangement.
Special emphasis: "Assuming GO proceeds with the Halton bypass and a fourth track on the Weston" which changes everything. Yet another massive unknown, and the clock is ticking.
"an hourly VIA train with comingled RER is doable at some level of service." Absolutely agreed, even if one is 'express' and the other 'maximal speed local'.
I don't know what you base your assumption of 7-8 minutes avoidable travel time per skipped stop on, but I refer to a
previous post, where I have made an exemplary calculation which suggests that the travel time saving associated with skipping certain stops would not exceed 3 minutes for conventional rail speeds, 3.5 minutes for Higher-Speed rail and 5 minutes for HSR:
This is crucial! This was a point I awkwardly made yesterday, as cutting stops ends-up defeating the purpose and ridership of a service in many (not all) cases. The largest factor of this being a problem or not for GO is in power to weight ratio of loco to coaches. There's no way in the world for the next generation that GO will need 10 coach trains on all day runs to K/W, which brings me back to three coach consists, both for off-peak runs to K/W, and for Bramalea (perhaps Mt Pleasant later) to Union (perhaps further east later) frequent service runs, *even before the great confabulator 'electification' can be used to stymie it*! It will be used to nix it, given the chance. Here's where flexibility comes in, because I know damn well electrification is nothing more than a theory at this point: Use the equipment that cascades down from the ongoing new acquisitions to run these 'secondary' services. 'Not as reliable'? Fine, one trainset breaks down, there's another in fifteen minutes or an hour, depending on which service. This isn't rush-hour, just inconvenience. Meantime when the great theory of the almighty second coming of electrification arrives (they had it on some lines a century ago) then the cascaded stock can finally be retired, or shifted further afield. Put the rationed monies into getting service up and running now (within a couple of years) not decades away.
Shorter consists will have more than enough seats, and accelerate/decelerate even with detuned for cleaner emissions F59s to meet the timings Urban itemizes. It isn't the number of stops that slows things down markedly, it's the power to weight ratio.
That problem with the co fare solely due to the city budget problems. Once that gets sorted out, it should improve.
Guelph has been cutting back bus service for the last six years! I know the present Mayor, jammed with him, great guy, but he's considerably to the right, and makes Tory's "no tax increases" look like the rabid braying of a communist. Guelph is more at odds with itself that Toronto core is with the suburbs. How in hell they think they can attract a larger industrial tax base when cutting bus service, God only knows. When the Guelph Mercury folded, one of Ontario's finest voices of municipal reason disappeared. Contrary to claims, btw (and I have this from the former Editor and staff) it was in the black and making money. Go figure. The future may not have been bright for print, but the Merc could have survived a lot longer. Without it, Guelph will eat its young. And is already. "Sprawl" is their new God.
Halton hills rejected a Brampton transit line. There has to be an incentive, otherwise Halton Hills will just be more sprawl. Compare them to Milton, who is doing better at building a livable community?
Trust me, I'm with you on this, but as that pertains to denying GO stopping with empty train coaches, you've lost me. The operating loss must be an investment in densifying nodes surrounding Toronto.
Even without Blackberry, the tech sector in Waterloo Region dwarfs that of London. OpenText alone is a $2.4 billion company. Also despite its decline, Blackberry isn't going anywhere.
K/W is not my kinda town, looked at it a number of times, along with Hamilton before deciding to return to Toronto, but Waterloo especially seems to be doing expansion in a reasoned and exciting way. More construction cranes in the sky per-capita than most any other city in Canada. Hamilton has its own charm, not least the magnificent setting and abundant cycle paths to escape on. Prices in Hamilton are now second only to Toronto for Ontario places most unaffordable. It's the third highest after Van now in Canada. Hamilton is unique, and not easily compared to K/W or London.
PS:
But then you could say London has 3M and the credit unions and such. Lets give London a chance with some transit upgrades before writing him off.
I don't think that's anyone's intention, it comes down to practicality. If there's already a barrier for people from K/W to face the time it takes the present GO train to get to Toronto (even slashed a half an hour) then how is all-day service to London going to sell? The best bet is to let VIA handle the challenge, not GO, bus express besides.
