Hamilton: General Service Discussion

[mdrejhon]

A few HSR improvements as well this fall, most notably new 10 B-Line service evenings and Saturday.

HSR also bought several new articulated buses and they've finally come online.

2018 was a nasty year for HSR -- just google #FixTheHSR

They are a bit behind in the 10 year Rapid Ready plan but hopefully this is the start of a continued 10-year Rapid Ready momentum to the upcoming LRT build -- the bidders are already shortlisted now. Contract award spring 2020 and major construction start later 2020.

Oh, and they just added a 10 B-Line Express stop at Delta! That's the bus stop nearest Gage Park. And probably to respond to the upcoming B-Line LRT which had a Gage Park stop (Delta) added due to popular demand.

I'm curious to know this as well, you've been upvoted

Thanks!

Looks like a few upvotes by a few lurkers here already, as well as from my Twitter tweet too.
Seems like quite a few Hamiltonians are demanding to know when Metrolinx plans to address the dead-end nature of West Harbour.
Many are eager to see this station be properly utilized.

 

[blaixx]

Oh, and they just added a 10 B-Line Express stop at Delta!

I'm very pleased with the service changes. Saturday and evening express bus service are the first signs of gearing up service in anticipation of LRT. In addition to Delta (Gage Park) , they are also adding stops at Wellington and Melrose (Scott Park); all three of which will be LRT stops.

 

[mdrejhon]

A Merger Of Hamilton Regional Rapid Transit Ideas
I've suggested these ideas separately in the past. This is the first time I'm combining all ideas into a single post -- and reinterpreting through the current "GO Expansion" lens instead of the previous "GO RER" lens.

With the B-Line construction decision slowly approaching in Spring 2020, it's time to revisit the existing "master plan". While many call this a fantasy map, most of this is already in 25-year masterplan documents -- but this is the first time I've merged several major ideas into a cohesive Hamilton 2041 regional concept.

Hamilton 2031/2041 Regional Rapid Transit
I've recreated the Hamilton portion of the existing Metrolinx 2041 masterplan map (Metrolinx 2041 RTP), that includes the BLAST network, City of Hamilton's long-term vision.
Except, I made a few minor modification that is a popular local suggestion -- a theoretical Dundurn GO station added and Gage GO station added

Hamilton Regional Rapid Transit. A mostly carbon copy of Metrolinx 2041 RTP (with minor modifications). Local buses would feeder into this network.

Now, I personally introduce a collection of ideas that I've already posted in the past, but with the B-Line LRT construction contract award approaching in a few months.
(Side note -- that's going to be a powerkeg though, if Ottawa LRT continues to have teething issues, even though the ION LRT seems to be operating relatively reliably thus far).

IDEA #1: All Day GO Train Service to Both Hamilton GO Stations
Initially, Hamilton plans all-day GO service to West Harbour GO and Confederation GO instead of Downtown GO (the current GO Expansion plan), nominally before the end of the 2020s (Word was that Wynne's "RER" 2025 date was changed to Ford's "GO Expansion" 2028 date, and the targeted station was switched (as I correctly predicted) to West Harbour instead of Downtown GO. Beyond 2025, the Metrolinx 2041 RTP plans 15-minute train service to Hamilton. I suggest a modification, (if CN/CP agrees) that this alternates after Aldershot between West Harbour 30-minutes and Hamilton Downtown 30-minutes. Then both stations get all-day GO train service. This would be vastly superior to Hamilton's long term rapid transit network connectivity, especially with the Dundurn GO idea. Many Metrolinx documents keeps the door open to which stations get allday, but currently Metrolinx is focussed on upgrading West Harbour (with some successful ridership increases finally starting to happen)
Date: Year 2041, as indicated in Metrolinx 2041


IDEA #2: One-Stop LRT Extension of B-Line to Confederation GO Station
Some Metrolinx maps show Hamilton B-Line connecting to Confederation GO station initially before the extension beyond to Gateway (Winona). This is the northern stub of the S-Line bus route, but it could also be served by LRT north of Main street, since it would connect to all-day 2-way GO service that will be running at Confederation GO station (at the same time as West Harbour). The new GO layover yard is in Grimsby, so if West Harbour gets all day service, Confederation also automatically gets that too (All-day 2-Way Confederation also shows up in the GO Expansion Business Case). That in itself, is a strong incentive for a 1-stop LRT extension to the Confederation GO station -- it would greatly increase utilization of Confederation GO.
Date: Unknown, but potentially part of LRT Phase 2 funding (2022, 2026).


IDEA #3: Incremental conversion of A-Line BRT to A-Line LRT
The current plan for A-Line is a BRT, but with the door open to future LRT. Some recent suggestions I made to Hamilton, Metrolinx and city councillors is that while A-Line can be a BRT initially, there should be an eventual progression to incrementally turn it into an LRT. This is the suggested A+T Line Hybrid (pictured). which I also posted in UrbanToronto too
A1 Line -- LRT Waterfront to Limeridge
A2 Line -- BRT Waterfront to Airport (sharing LRT track thru downtown)
This is much cheaper than converting the BRT all the way to LRT in one step. First, BRT. Secondly BRT+LRT. Thirdly, LRT. It does not yet make sense to build LRT all the way to the airport because there's enough density to warrant the expense of an LRT yet. However, with sufficient airport growth, it may. An incremental build of A-Line LRT should be masterplanned.
Date: Theoretically, I speculate the 2022 provincial election could be a funding opportunity for this.

IDEA #4: Gage GO Station with T-Line Connection
Also, I previously suggested a Gage GO station since the city owns land next to the railroad corridor. If that is considered, then the T-Line BRT could be redirected to terminate at the Gage GO station instead, since it makes a lot of sense with future all-day 2-way GO trains. Metrolinx already evaluated Gage Rd GO station when considering infill stations. It could be considered again in a theoretical urbanization of Barton street, and increasing usage of the stadium (Forge FC, TiCats, and other uses), combined with expansion of Gage Park events and theoretical future GagePark-MountainPark gondola. With the recent pro-developer focus for infill stations (With Beamsville GO station potentially beating Grimsby GO station) -- this is also a potential future developer-funded mobility hub opportunity to make Gage GO happen.
Date: Unknown, but could be 2030s

IDEA #5: Dundurn GO Station with B-Line LRT Connection
Idea #5 is more from scratch while ideas #1-4 above are already suggested at least indirectly in several Metrolinx documents or City of Hamilton documents. This idea is a popular Hamilton resident idea that's slightly more aspirational but realistic in a long-term timeline. This idea was submitted to several provincial and municipal officials by a few residents (myself included) including as a public suggestion to Metrolinx during the 2041 Public Information Centres. Several Metrolinx employees have previously "Liked" social media posts about this station, so it's already in the minds of several. This could be a theoretical contender in the 2032 or 2036 provincial election, if there's a future arrangement with CP that makes this possible.
Date: Unknown/unplanned. But currently a popular idea among some Hamilton progressives.

Given the theoretical land-value capture opportunity in a theoretical Dundurn Mall redevelopment + Frid Street redevelopment, this is a obvious attractive addition to a long-term master plan -- with the main caveat; that it's the line owned by CP -- and may be a difficult addition at this stage. However, the crossing of LRT+GO produces a very obvious infill station opportunity -- LRT, GO, 403, buses -- with GO bus connections in all directions including Brantford and Kitchener-Waterloo.

For Dundurn Mobility Hub -- the land is surprisingly plentiful (unbeknownst to an average Hamiltonian navigating the 403 onramp/offramp) -- just revisualize a demolition-rebuild of Dundurn Mall to capture the parking lot -- and possibly Cathedral Park development -- and possibly nearby Frid Street potential redevelopment. There's a lot of land to unlock.

* Dundurn Mall, development ideas from 2014
* Cathedral Park development in a park-for-park trade (raising Cathedral Park into a rooftop Cathedral Park)
* 80 acres of land along the upcoming Frid Street rebuild to MSF (funded by B-Line LRT).

Theoretically a developer could build an underground bus terminal and parking garage underneath densified retail/residentials. Or more cheaply, Cathedral Park could be replaced with a rooftop (nicer, more accessible) Cathedral Park that's on top of a 403 bus terminal / kiss-n-ride / parking garage that's built in the current location of Cathedral Park in a park-for-park concession. Many theoretical possible routes to unlock the transit hub.

Related Tweet:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1184323100202164224

 

[mdrejhon]

One (ehm) error in the transcribed Metrolinx 2041 routes:
The A-Line should turn onto Fennel instead of Mohawk towards James, like in the original BLAST plan -- more development opportunities on James St South.

-- The T-Line jog to Gage GO station was intentional, but the A-Line jog was accidental.
-- The dotted A-Line across escarpment is intentional, as it could either be a James St access route, or a ramp tunnel (tunnel = better winter protection from slippage of a steep slope). I'm more of a fan of the subway-ramp idea even though that is more expensive, but it would allow higher-capacity, a smoother straighter ride, and provide winter protection to maximize climbing traction. LRVs can climb dry drail at a 10 degree slope, but definitely not when wet. Realistically, the tunnel would be a 5-to-6 degree slope maximum -- this allows it to surface in a shallow cut-n-cover subway station underneath West 5th next to Mohawk/StJoe. If there's a good densification master plan for the area between StJoe-Mohawk-Limeridge, the short-subway-segment option can be considered. The Skytrain offered to Hamilton in the before it was offered to Vancouver, was going to be a subway north of escarpment to Limeridge mall. Funny full circle, if that happens.

 

[mdrejhon]

Brantford / London / Kitchener / Waterloo / Waterloo buses

This could be served by the conceptual Dundurn GO station that is conveniently adjacent to the 403. A bus terminal can be built at that location. If one needs more room, Cathedral Park could serve as the bus terminal in a park-for-park trade (raise the park to a more easily accessible rooftop park that's flush to a Dundurn Mall redevelopment).

For Niagara connections to these buses, a theoretical Niagara bus routes could take Tesla Expressway (Burlington Boulevard) to first connect at West Harbour GO, then onwards to Dundurn GO. That would allow those coming from the Niagara Falls / St.Cat direction, to be able to connect into this regional bus network, via Dundurn GO.

 

[doady]

It's nice to see HSR finally getting increased funding to try to reverse the ridership decline. I hope they will be patient and continue to invest in transit, despite the protests of some councillors. 15 years ago Hamilton's ridership was way better than Waterloo, Brampton, and Mississauga, and on par with London, but now it is worse than all of them. Maybe only Durham Region has been more pro-car.

RIDERS PER CAPITA
Municipality  2003  2008  2013  2018
Hamilton      47    45    45    41
London        50    63    63    61
Waterloo      29    33    50    45
Mississauga   38    44    47    53
Brampton      22    27    35    50

 

[mdrejhon]

What happened to transit ridership 2003-2018 is shameful. The legacy of transit funding neglect + expansion of the car (not turning Main 2-way when opening LINC + RHVP).

 

[blaixx]

The population of Hamilton increased by about 17% during that time, with most of the growth around the edges of the city which are underserved by transit.

 

[blaixx]

A Merger Of Hamilton Regional Rapid Transit Ideas

Thanks for writing this up, I found you're proposals very interesting. Some of those ideas are very bold and far-sighted but that's no reason not to discuss.

IDEA #1: All Day GO Train Service to Both Hamilton GO Stations

Although this is an unpopular opinion, personally I don't think that all-day GO train to Hamilton is a priority given the capabilities and service patterns of the Lakeshore West line. An all-stops trip to Union Station from Hamilton would currently take about 85 minutes which is far worse than the current #16 express bus that takes only 60 minutes outside of peak hours. I realise not everyone wants to go to Union, but for most Hamiltonians AD2W wouldn't actually be a huge improvement. I'd certainly be on board for slightly expanded weekday service and a stop on the Express Niagara trains on weekends.

IDEA #2: One-Stop LRT Extension of B-Line to Confederation GO Station

This one seems like a no-brainer, especially in conjunction with idea #1. I might even throw in a stop at Barton because why not. Only issue might be if you wanted to run LRT under the new rail bridge which is only 2 lanes wide (per direction) and not very high!

IDEA #4: Gage GO Station with T-Line Connection

I saw your previous post about Gage GO so linking it up with a 2 km extension of the "T" Line is an interesting idea. Gage GO wouldn't be the biggest priority if the other two GO stations are easily accessible from the A and B lines but I could see a need eventually. It would also be interesting to see BRT go all the way the West Harbour GO along Barton Street.

 

[mdrejhon]

Although this is an unpopular opinion, personally I don't think that all-day GO train to Hamilton is a priority given the capabilities and service patterns of the Lakeshore West line. An all-stops trip to Union Station from Hamilton would currently take about 85 minutes which is far worse than the current #16 express bu

Not 85.

West Harbour Trains already sped up to be almost as fast as offpeak #16 express today! It's only 64 minutes (06:09->07:13 Union) and 67 minutes today (16:02->17:09 Hamilton) for the two fastest West Harbour trains. All current and future West Harbour trains go express. Although not all West Harbour trains are this fast, they compactly vary from 67 minutes to 70 minutes -- all faster than Downtown GO trains. And ridership is currently surging.

Also, the train is expected to become faster. The September 2019 Metrolinx Blog for Hamilton says "Our customers will be happy to hear that this will improve journey times through the area ". Also, in the current GO Expansion Business Case, the hourly allday 2way trains skip Appleby and Bronte too, speeding things up more. (Though I think it should skip Clarkson and stop at Port Credit for interchange with Hurontario LRT). Sub-60 minutes is technically possible.

Figure 1: The express nature of the hourly allday West Harbour trains (red=diesel, yellow=electric) and Niagara trains.

Now, when they electrify, the allstops are faster because of EMU acceleration/deceleration. The 15-min RER trains (that takes 40 minutes to Burlington), when extended to Hamilton, would probably only add 10-15 minutes extra (for a 55 minute trip).

Yellow = electric (circa year 2028), see 45 minutes allstop to Burlington.

For year 2041, when Metrolinx expects 15-min frequency to Hamilton, it is expected to be the extension of the electrified lines. There is a good question of electrifying Hamilton on freight lines, but that can come in many forms
-- Electrification of freight thanks to future climate-change accords/legislation etc.
-- Or Battery operation when crossing freight gaps
-- Or Rail-to-rail grade separation to jog the Metrolinx track to the opposite side of freight tracks
-- Combination. Diesel to Downtown GO, electrified to West Harbour GO

By year 2041, the West Harbour trip would be only about ~50-to-55-minutes, relative to the 45-minute Burlington benchmark that they want to do by year 2028. It is also possible other upgrades along Lakeshore West, will also speed up Burlington to approximately 35-40 minutes, making possible the 45-minute Hamilton EMU train commute.

My map is based on the actual Metrolinx documents, Metrolinx 2041 (full network map) and GO Expansion Business Case (Page 45 onwards).

Also Metrolinx just recently raised the priority of West Harbour -- currently, West Harbour is undergoing a surge of ridership just by doubling trains. Based on what I am currently witnessing on the ground, I think West Harbour will be one of the top5 fast-growing ridership stations on the GO network for at least two or three of four of these fiscal years: FY2020, FY2021, FY2022, FY2023 -- videos below.

Today the fastest West Harbour train is now more than 5 minutes faster than Downtown GO trains, and this is expected to speedup a bit more, once signals on that new third track over Desjardins are fully active. The track is connected now, but the signals still need to be fully commisioned. The GO Expansion Business Case uses a 68 minute value, but that number is already beaten today (67 minute).

Check out this below Twitter thread (multiple videos)

https://twitter.com/x/status/1181321688870510592

...West Harbour in well under an hour has already been achieved with a sufficiently express train
My 2015 Pan Am GO express train ride of lore -- actually zoomed past Burlington only 30 minutes after departing Union, (plus reaperexpress data) even with only the 90mph rail speed limit (143mph max). My actual trip Toronto Union to Hamilton West Harbour was only 47 minutes. This is a good demo of the potential to beat the #16 Express with future corridor capacity/speed/electrification upgrades. Even if the future EMU was still allstop to West Harbour, it would still be less than an hour, thanks to EMU fast re-acceleration after stops. The service plan of future Hamilton 15-minute service, as of yet undetermined, may theoretically also include express EMUs.

...The GO EMUs (Burlington 2028, Hamilton 2041) may have a 200kph max speed.
In some parts of Europe is 200kph-rated EMU commuter trainsets -- The Stadler KISS that Metrolinx famously use in pictograms is a 200kph electric train! There's even a pictogram of a Stadler KISS at Confederation GO station. This may not be anytime soon, but -- imagine. Even if Metrolinx does not choose the Stadler, most of the EMUs that Metrolinx is considering all have a faster max speed than the GO locomotives, with a few of them around 200kph-ish max. This open doors to gradually speeding up the railroad.

...And after that, is possible high speed trains. (50-year window)
Ultralong Term: Strategically, there is a long-term desire to electrify to the US border eventually. If the USA electrifies the Empire Corridor (Buffalo-New York) in 50 years from now. We could have Acela Express equivalents coming to Toronto in 2041, with a stop at West Harbour GO. Current GO trains are 90mph but the speeds could someday be upgraded to 125mph on some parts of Lakeshore West for 2041 in theory. As early as 2028, there'll be a 45-minute allstop to Burlington. And not all EMUs have to be allstop (Burlington in 25-30 minutes). The high speed trains would have multiple stopping plans including nonstop to border, one or two stops (i.e. Hamilton, Oakville), and multistop (i.e. Union-Oakville-Burlington-Hamilton-Niagara) -- much like the service plans of TGV, Taiwan, China, etc. -- and double as long-distance commuter trains as they already do in those countries. Varies by country, but I rode one of those in Taiwan, unassigned seating, 20min frequency, missed my train, hopped onto next, ticket was not tied to any specific train, and it was just like hopping onto a 300kph GO train. Saw many commuters mixed in with the recreational travellers. This won't happen by 2041 I am sure, but certainly by the end of this century -- and this is yet another reason why West Harbour probably will get catenary before Downtown GO.

...If only one Hamilton route is electrified, it will probably be West Harbour and not Downtown GO
Strategically, West Harbour will be far more important to electrify for all the above reasons. If you combine express stopping plan and 200kph, Union to West Harbour becomes a 30-minute ride including having to slow down after Burlington on the CP tracks. That makes Hamilton-thru-Niagara trains quite much more bearable. It could be that Downtown GO gets the old hourly diesels, and West Harbour gets 15-minute allstop trains (55-min to Union), which would be far faster than a #16 on a 2041-extrapolated-congestion QEW. CN won't let it happen now, but eventually they'll have to capitulate under increasing climate-change-law pressures of the future decades (cheaper to permit catenary happen than not) -- then you'll see cats popping above the freights or adjacent tracks later this century.

...There's lots of time between now and 2041 to make trains faster than bus
By 2028, we'll already have an EMU that's ready to speedup to 200kph. While Lakeshore West is rated 90mph (143kph) at the most, it doesn't have to stay that way till 2041 especially if we have unused speed sitting around in an EMU we've already purchased. Plenty of time to upgrade Lakeshore to support that speed, to make it easily beat the #16 Express by a wide margin (Consider in 2041, the QEW and 403 will be WAY more congested). Now, imagine, we may have an express EMU that goes express Union-Burlington, that goes allstop after Burlington, for stops between Burlington and Niagara Falls, with about 35-40 minutes Hamilton, and 1h20min to the US border, if the Lakeshore West is slowly upgraded to 200kph standards where it makes sense by 2041.

...Climate change legislation will probably accelerate funding for this
The next 20 years is going to increase pressure against freeway expansions. Only small climate-change dominoes would need to fall between now and 2041 to suddenly fund upgrades. That is more sustainable than 403/QEW expansions. Also, due to corridor constraints, it is easier to speedup West Harbour than Downtown GO.

 

[blaixx]

Not 85.

Thank you for the added details. To be honest, I missed in your original post that idea #1 was targeting 2041 (I was thinking 2021). The hot topic in Hamilton that I've noticed is "why don't we have all day GO trains, NOW"? As far as I know, there are no (or few) express trains on LW outside of peak hour so I got 85 minutes by adding 15 minutes (Hamilton to Aldershot, current) to the 70 minute Aldershot–Union all stops. As I'm sure you'd agree, 85 minutes is not very attractive and is probably part of the reason there's no off-peak service right now.

Thinking about your post from a 2041 perspective makes way more sense. Even the 68 minutes hourly service to WH proposed for 2028 is something that excites me! Breaking 60 minutes at some point would be a huge milestone.

 

[Midtown Urbanist]

Ideally, I would like to see Hamilton transit riders using the GO train not just for commutes to Toronto, but for commutes within Hamilton.

If the GO Line had stops at West Harbour, Wentworth, Gage, and Centennial (and lets add one more in Stoney Creek for fun), that would provide enough coverage for it to be useful for Hamilton residents traveling within the city. Then you would just need to beef up local connections.

 

[blaixx]

If the GO Line had stops at West Harbour, Wentworth, Gage, and Centennial (and lets add one more in Stoney Creek for fun), that would provide enough coverage for it to be useful for Hamilton residents traveling within the city.

That would be cool. A SmartTrack-like super-express service through Hamilton. The issue of course is that the track is the CN mainline and what sort of frequency you would be able to run. Plus the 9km Centennial–WH journey would probably take around 15 minutes with just 2 intermediate stops. That trip would compete against the Eastgate–James LRT trip which would take under 25 minutes, travel up to 10 times per hour, and bring you right downtown.

I like the idea though. In general I'm more in favour of ideas that improve inter-city trips in Hamilton (B-Line LRT) rather than taking people out of the city (Centennial Pkwy. GO station), although both are needed.

 

[mdrejhon]

Ideally, I would like to see Hamilton transit riders using the GO train not just for commutes to Toronto, but for commutes within Hamilton.

If the GO Line had stops at West Harbour, Wentworth, Gage, and Centennial (and lets add one more in Stoney Creek for fun), that would provide enough coverage for it to be useful for Hamilton residents traveling within the city. Then you would just need to beef up local connections.

Essentially a Hamilton version of the infill stations going on in Toronto. (The Toronto SmartTrack idea)

However, they also need to consider train trip times to Niagara Falls, which would be slowed down by a dense array of stops. But they could have a mix of stopping plans, if it's 15-minutes electric to West Harbour and hourly diesels (or battery train) to Downtown GO. Every 30 minutes would be pretty much express between West Harbour and Confederation and every 30 minutes would be allstop. That's the formula they are planning to apply to Toronto's Park Lawn GO station; they were worried it would slow trains but the business case made tons of sense when they stopped only every other train.

In Paris, RER has a lot of layers of stopping plans (as much as 4, 5 or 6 layers of different stopping plans that alternate with each other every few minutes!), so it can be done to Toronto's electrified GO network if the trains are sufficiently frequent. So, yes, it could happen to have a bunch of stations -- though it might be a 2051 idea instead of 2041.

I only think that two more stations can be built in Hamilton by the 2040s, and the big jackpot of transit connectivity would be Dundurn GO on the condition that (A) CP finds a way to agree with Metrolinx and (B) allday occurs to both West Harbour and Downtown GO. So many nodes converge there (403, bus, train, LRT) but it could only really happen if there is also allday service to Downtown GO too.

Now, if 100% of the focus was only on upgrades to the Grimsby sub and Downtown remained peak-only, and no Dundurn GO was built -- then some simple unmanned stations could easily be built cheaply, if you interspersed the stopping plan (allstop/expresses). That will likely require at least two Metrolinx dedicated tracks, which the corridor does have (eventual) room for.

 

[Midtown Urbanist]

However, they also need to consider train trip times to Niagara Falls, which would be slowed down by a dense array of stops. But they could have a mix of stopping plans, if it's 15-minutes electric to West Harbour and hourly diesels (or battery train) to Downtown GO. Every 30 minutes would be pretty much express between West Harbour and Confederation and every 30 minutes would be allstop. That's the formula they are planning to apply to Toronto's Park Lawn GO station; they were worried it would slow trains but the business case made tons of sense when they stopped only every other train.

I'm not too concerned about Niagara Falls because:

• Few people will be commuting from Niagara Falls to Toronto on GO, considerably more people might be interested in intra-Hamilton trips.
• Day trips from Toronto to Niagara for leisure are less elastic to the delay of a few extra stops in Hamilton, and as you say they can run express trains anyway
• More people may be interested in commuting from Niagara Falls to Hamilton (!!!) and the extra coverage within Hamilton is a bonus to those purposes

I think Hamilton needs to begin thinking big, and positioning itself as not a bedroom community for Toronto but as a major employment centre and rival to Toronto for the Golden Horseshoe's labour pool.