GO Transit: Service thread (including extensions)

[ericmacm]

I'm not clear on why one would spend money to upgrade someone else's corridor, and potentially increase its ultimate sale price, if one is also in the market to ultimately buy it.

Cheaper to buy it in the devalued state.

That's a good point. I was initially thinking that CN would not want to part with the entire Guelph Subdivision and this would be the only real way to get better service on the line, but then I saw this article from 2020 that says CN is actually trying to sell its low-density rail lines in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Ontario. CN Guelph is a low density line so they are actively looking to get rid of it.

I'd say it's roughly twice the length of Metrolinx's purchase in 2014 and probably in terrible condition so $160M actually isn't too outrageous of a number to value that section of the line at.

 

[robmausser]

I'd remind folks that one of the first things Ford did, when he came to power, was cancel the rail bypass of Brampton and Georgetown and the proposed high-speed-rail service between London & Toronto. A fast TO-Airport-Guelph-Kitchener-London would have brought London into the Tech corridor, one slow GO Train each way per day does nothing for jobs in London & the SW.

The rail bypass was a mistake. It looks good on paper but its infeasible. Unless it was done by the federal government and forced on CN, they would never agree to it. Plus the project could take decades to come to fruition. A third track through the CN region of the Kitchener Line is a much more feasible thing.

The High Speed Rail project was a mistake too. We should have HSR between Toronto and Montreal, but anywhere else is overkill. There simply isn't the population in London for HSR.

 

[crs1026]

The numbers add up quickly. I actually did a back of envelope fantasy scribble about the London route a while back. Here's the product.

It's hard to know exact prices for anything - for obvious reasons contractors and buyers keep their prices under wraps. But one can use this template to insert whatever figures one wishes. I did do a Streetview tour of the route and counted crossings.

The good thing about past VIA investment is, most crossings have fairly modern protection with gates. I wondered however if upgrading and raising speed limits would require consistent installation of overhead gantries with more lights.

The condition of the crossings themselves however, is not great and crossings are a fairly significant source of slow orders.... so I assumed that most would have to be renewed with the modern concrete shoulders and removable road plates (to allow automated surfacing).

Again, just something to kick the tires with, using an "err on the side of more" approach.

PS - In the context of Ontario's transit investment budget, even under the most stingy of the three parties.... this is chickenfeed. Let's just get on with it.

- Paul

 

[Krypto98]

That's a good point. I was initially thinking that CN would not want to part with the entire Guelph Subdivision and this would be the only real way to get better service on the line, but then I saw this article from 2020 that says CN is actually trying to sell its low-density rail lines in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Ontario. CN Guelph is a low density line so they are actively looking to get rid of it.

I'd say it's roughly twice the length of Metrolinx's purchase in 2014 and probably in terrible condition so $160M actually isn't too outrageous of a number to value that section of the line at.

As far as I know they only run 1 local on that line, maybe 2 if I'm mistaken.

 

[reaperexpress]

I'm not clear on why one would spend money to upgrade someone else's corridor, and potentially increase its ultimate sale price, if one is also in the market to ultimately buy it.

Cheaper to buy it in the devalued state.

This. CN has been negligent on their maintenance and now the Conservatives want to give them 160 million dollars for the maintenance they should have been doing for the past twenty years.

Instead of giving handouts to one of the richest companies in the country, we should offer to buy the line at a price which takes into account the backlog of work the line needs.

 

[littlewill1166]

It's not looking good today, in any case:
View attachment 400039

I had also noticed the 10 mph operation west of Kitchener station. I think your hypothesis is correct: new slow orders west of London have decimated the on-time performance of the London GO train and VIA 84 (Sarnia-Toronto).
Via 87 (Toronto-Sarnia) was hopeless regardless, but at the very least they should shift its departure time from Kitchener about 8 minutes earlier to account for the Metrolinx track upgrades between Georgetown and Kitchener, and give a bit more time to tiptoe from Kitchener to London.

Also, it is occuring to me that the London train departs for a more practical time for me (11:33 Central European Time) than the for the people in London Ontario.

I'm wondering if we could make a program to automatically estimate the current track speed profile summarize using the GO and VIA GPS traces. If you plotted speed over distance for all trains in a month, then traced the maximum speed for any train for each given segment of track, you would have a "maximum speed profile" for the line which could be compared from one month to the next to identify new or lifted slow zones.

I personally am not tech savvy enough to do it, but it seems like it would be quite doable for someone who has worked with GTFS data before.

More than 15 minute delay=free ride. As long as I'm not in a rush, I kinda hope I get delayed. Probably not sustainable if it keeps happening though...

 

[Allandale25]

It's not looking good today, in any case:
View attachment 400039

I had also noticed the 10 mph operation west of Kitchener station. I think your hypothesis is correct: new slow orders west of London have decimated the on-time performance of the London GO train and VIA 84 (Sarnia-Toronto).
Via 87 (Toronto-Sarnia) was hopeless regardless, but at the very least they should shift its departure time from Kitchener about 8 minutes earlier to account for the Metrolinx track upgrades between Georgetown and Kitchener, and give a bit more time to tiptoe from Kitchener to London.

Also, it is occuring to me that the London train departs for a more practical time for me (11:33 Central European Time) than the for the people in London Ontario.

I'm wondering if we could make a program to automatically estimate the current track speed profile summarize using the GO and VIA GPS traces. If you plotted speed over distance for all trains in a month, then traced the maximum speed for any train for each given segment of track, you would have a "maximum speed profile" for the line which could be compared from one month to the next to identify new or lifted slow zones.

I personally am not tech savvy enough to do it, but it seems like it would be quite doable for someone who has worked with GTFS data before.

What's the length of this new 10 mph slow order?

 

[afransen]

More than 15 minute delay=free ride. As long as I'm not in a rush, I kinda hope I get delayed. Probably not sustainable if it keeps happening though...

As @Reecemartin points out in a recent video on youtube, such customer service promises tend to lead to schedule padding/slower service which is just another way of planning to be late every day.

 

[littlewill1166]

As @Reecemartin points out in a recent video on youtube, such customer service promises tend to lead to schedule padding/slower service which is just another way of planning to be late every day.

Personally, I'd rather a service be slow and on time (GO), rather than fast and late all the time (VIA). It makes personal planning and scheduling easier, and it reduces the likelihood of me becoming anxious about being late getting somewhere. It's a zero-sum game since either the transit agency or the passenger has to pad their schedule at the end of the day. I'd personally rather the transit agency do it since they should theoretically know their own operations better.

 

[ARG1]

I'd remind folks that one of the first things Ford did, when he came to power, was cancel the rail bypass of Brampton and Georgetown and the proposed high-speed-rail service between London & Toronto. A fast TO-Airport-Guelph-Kitchener-London would have brought London into the Tech corridor, one slow GO Train each way per day does nothing for jobs in London & the SW.

From what I understand, very little progress was actually done on the London - Toronto HSR route by 2018. Even if the current government would've went full steam ahead on the project (disregarding all of the problems with the project), its unlikely we would've actually seen anything up and running prior to 2030.

 

[reaperexpress]

From what I understand, very little progress was actually done on the London - Toronto HSR route by 2018. Even if the current government would've went full steam ahead on the project (disregarding all of the problems with the project), its unlikely we would've actually seen anything up and running prior to 2030.

It was clear from the beginning that the Windsor HSR plan was just a fancy thing for the Liberals to say before an election, and nobody had any intention of actually building it. I don't blame the Conservatives for cancelling it. However they definitely did pull funding for valuable transport projects like the Niagara GO extension (Confederation and Casablanca stations), and initiatives such as the 50% discount on TTC when transferring to or from GO

 

[anb]

I love when GO accidentally leaks things in schedules. A little while back Mount Dennis showed up on schedules. Makes me wonder if the GO station might open before the Crosstown.

Metrolinx should really execute on 30 min all-day weekday and weekend service from Union to Bramalea. The trains would be well-used.

I think they might wait until the bus terminal is finished at Bramalea GO to coincide with the 30 min service and as both the Zum and local Steeles buses would finally serve the station proper, Bramalea will already be turned into a frequent transit hub and will heavily drive up ridership on the trains. If that isn’t the case then September is most likely as said earlier.

 

[SaugeenJunction]

I think they might wait until the bus terminal is finished at Bramalea GO to coincide with the 30 min service and as both the Zum and local Steeles buses would finally serve the station proper, Bramalea will already be turned into a frequent transit hub and will heavily drive up ridership on the trains. If that isn’t the case then September is most likely as said earlier.

The beauty of regional rail incremental improvements. All of the sudden it’s like “hey! Here is a very useful and useable service!”.

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

They should aim for Mount Pleasant. No need for crowding in Bramalea.

 

[anb]

They should aim for Mount Pleasant. No need for crowding in Bramalea.

After we see the success of Main LRT and Queen BRT, its hard to see why they would waste the opportunity not to extend 15-30 min service to DT Brampton (in before they call it Brampton Metropolitan Center or some ridiculous name by then). Mount Pleasant would be a dream to see that type of service but maybe we’ll see it one day in the far distant future if we ever strike a deal with CN or just build our own tracks.