In Metrolinx 2041, they mentioned 15-min RER extension to Hamilton, Ontario after ~2025. (I imagine, possibly as early as 2031).
I imagine they're aiming for the downtown.
That would mitigate the theoretical downgrade (if they planned to do a "Stoufville line" style move of discontining the frequent Hamilton 16 to replace it with an infrequent hourly train) and from my 47-minute scorchingly fast Pan Am Express GO Train ride between Toronto and West Harbour in 2015 -- it's at least technologically possible to replace the convenience of the Hamilton 16 Express.
Ultimately, by 2041 -- when it's warranted -- the Lakeshore extension could alternate every other train (in true Paris RER-style fashion!) between West Harbour and Downtown -- both stations getting all day. Hourly or 30-minute service for both. Basically, allday electric service to the U.S. border (if Empire Corridor is ever electrified by 2041+) and dual-mode service to Hamilton downtown (by diesel or hydrogen dual-mode).
In the near interim,
what station gets hourly is still practically up in the air at the moment.
I wrote about this in my large
Major Hamilton GO Train Construction article for RaiseTheHammer -- where I also broke out the first exclusive photography of the Lewis Railyard (in Grimsby) under construction.
The official word is downtown. But look closely: Read between the lines. As early as 2017, Metrolinx was reportedly thinking of switching to West Harbour for the all-day service:
This is a decision that is alas, unfortunately a fast-moving target,
caused by CN negotiations, CP negotiations, Hamilton LRT route changes, construction scheduling opportunities, HSR rerouting to station, politics, and many other factors.
Ultimately, both stations ARE important concurrently for very different reasons, and both will continue to get service. Neither station will be shut down since one is downtown, and the other is a strategic station on Niagara service and long-term-future (Note: Amtrak/VIA to USA -- international trains pass West Harbour, and USA repeatedly talks about electrification/HSR on the Empire Corridor which may happen later this century). So because both stations are so strategically important to continue to exist one way or another -- I am seeing a likely scenario of both stations getting all-day service within one human generation. However,
right now, the question is which gets how much service, and which gets all-day service
first. Playing "analyst" on this, produces a very cloudy crystal ball at the moment that will only become clearer in the years to come, but the door is open on both stations.
Currently, playing "analyst of Hamilton GO service", I currently nail Downtown GO as the 50%-50% candidate to get all day service, and
weekday all-day service probably may not happen till 2026. This is only an analyst's opinion, and not indicative of what GO/Metrolinx will do. I'm rooting for them nontheless, even as fellow Hamiltonian piranhas are biting on "why is it taking so long for the low lying apples" questions.
That said, easiest first step to more trains is probably the low-lying apple:
Stopping the Niagara summer seasonal GO train in Hamilton to "
put more bums in seats". But this, even is a bit complex and taking a few years to solve. Obviously, is all complicated by CN negotiations, construction phasing, merging small work into large contracts, delicate politics, and horrendous inter-agency work complexity of a 100 meter segment.
My current Hamilton All-Day 2-way GO predictions
- Niagara summer seasonal stops at West Harbour in either 2018 or 2019
This would be summer weekend semi-all-day equivalent. There is currently a 50%-50% chance that the 2018 Niagara Summer Seasonal is not going to stop in Hamilton yet. Some of my actions right now is some awareness-raising to hopefully push that low-lying apple forward as an Election 2018 Issue. Allowing the seasonal to also become a Toronto-Hamilton-Niagara 2-way interurban.
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- Hamilton Hourly Weekday/Evening trains: Pick Either Option A or B
(A) Weekday All-Day Hourly Scenario A in West Harbour GO: 2021
This is the scenario where all stakeholders succeed on the CN side, and if Hamilton City Hall agrees to expand HSR service to the West Harbour GO station (e.g. A-Line/shuttle bus enhancements). Metrolinx decides to activate all-day 2-way Hamilton trains at West Harbour as part of the Niagara GO expansion. Currently low-traffic use of West Harbour ('duh' factor: only 2 trains a day, both that depart before I wake up) -- is a probable cause for concern to attempting it sooner than 2021, so getting the Niagara seasonal to stop at WH in 2018/2019 could help the "bums-in-seats" factor.
(B) Weekday All-Day Hourly Scenario B at Downtown/Hunter GO: 2026
During election 2018 or 2022, Metrolinx instead funds extra track from Bayview to the entrance of the tunnel. The trench before the tunnel entrance, has plenty of room already. This is thanks to early 1990s construction (before the Bob Rae / cuts era) that protected for future all-day service. Tunnel may not need to be expanded for hourly, as long as there's extra track to the entrance, with plenty of CP switching opportunities before/after GO trains, to make CP scheduling flexible for the infrequent (but kilometer-plus-long) freight trains, without significantly interrupting hourly GO trains.
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- Hamilton Weekday All-Day 15-min Expansion: ~2035
This is already mentioned as a "Big Move Next Step" in the new Metrolinx 2041 document, with a fuzzy timeline of "After 2025". Assuming Burlington electrification does not get cancelled, the first Hamilton election during electric construction (~2022 or 2026) will likely have politicians promising/demanding for electrification "the rest of the way". Announcement to begin construction by 2031, with completion by 2035.
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- Both Hamilton stations get true all-day service: ~2035-2041
Hourly on one, 15-min on the other. Or 30-min on both using Paris-RER-style "every other train goes left vs right at Bayview" arrangement commonly done in other cities. Wildcard is freight ownership. One leg could be electrified, and the other leg will require dual-mode trains.
I am potentially off-base, and open to be surprised at an acceleration, but these are currently my revised predictions for Hamilton all-day 2-way GO trains, based on political/LRT/funding/CN/CP/etc pressures that is not likely to coincide quickly enough to accelerate the year numbers above.
Everything beyond Aldershot (And even Aldershot itself) is incredibly complicated by freight corridor ownership making it hard to inexpensively run all-day trains beyond. I anticipate there are likely politics opportunities here. Incrementals (more trains, a few midday trains, etc), will almost definitely happen before 2021. But true hourly all-day 2-way appears to now have become a "won't happen till the 2020s" event.
What the Hamilton public can do: There is currently an opportunity for the public & politicians to tip the fence of 2018-vs-2019 for the pre-existing Niagara trains to stop in Hamilton. Currently it feels 50-50, and early pressure can push a command chain to get the increasingly-few pre-requisites finished by Victoria's Day 2018. Currently, there is photographed CN construction now working towards this, but it's getting close to winter. This puts the 2018 Niagara Season at risk of not stopping in Hamilton. Contact people accordingly (politicians, agencies, even CN/city, etc).
This is my "analysis".