GO Transit: Service thread (including extensions)

[cbrown2009]

Ok. I ask because to this day there are still locos, cars and cab cars on order to grow the current fleet. I'm sure those orders aren't going to turn on the dime. Also I wondered what kind of capacity we would be looking at in a new fleet.

 

[muller877]

Hmmm.... Ok. And what of the current fleet? Retirement? Or sell off?

Another reason for incremental change. The environmental cost of scrapping a perfectly good train car will probably outweigh the benefits of electrification.

Once Lakeshore West is electrified, use these trains to increase service on Milton and other lines.

Once the UPX is electrified, use these smaller trains to test out the recovery ratios on potential new GO Train routes (e.g. Orangeville, Bolton).

The diesel fleet would remain constant over time and when they slowly reach the end of their life the Province can either purchase diesel or electrical.

Their current plan sounds like they just bought a shiny new car. But now the Prius has come out so they will sell/scrap their shiny new car for pennies on the dollar just to show off to their friends.

The slow conversion makes the most economic sense but will take significant foresight. Not sure if Metrolinx/Ontario has the long-term planning for this.

 

[ShonTron]

Express rush hour trains still make sense with an electric or diesel locomotive push/pulling unpowered cars. There will still need to be Lakeshore East and West express runs (and hopefully trains headed all the way to Kitchener), plus peak-only rail extensions such as Stouffville (where EMUs may logically extend as far as Mount Joy) or Cambridge. This configuration makes less sense for frequent service/frequent stops on regional rail.

Bolton is certainly a viable commuter rail route. I've always doubted the utility of Orangeville, especially north of King Street (Brampton Airport).

The oldest bilevel cars are over 35 years old. Passenger rail cars can last a very long time (VIA operates cars dating from the 1950s on the Canadian, Skeena and several trains on the Corridor.) but eventually GO will be looking to replace its oldest cars; but so far since the late 1980s, every car order was for fleet expansion rather than replacement.

 

[innsertnamehere]

Stouffville, Bowmanville, etc. maybe but even then I'm kind of doubtful. run 3 car trains of them or something? Murray is talking RER to Niagara, Barrie, etc. which while I am sure is much longer away than the urban routes, he is also talking Kitchener and Guelph and whatnot. Short term you may be able to retire a few and move them to other lines, introduce the Seaton line, Bolton line, etc.

I can see a phased in thing where They electrify the urban sections of lines and out to Kitchener, and as that occurs the trains slowly get shifted to the further edges of the GTA, and not have full buildout of electrified 2 way rail running on the promised lines until 15 years from now, but still. Large amounts of retirements are incoming I feel.

 

[ShonTron]

Murray is saying lots of crazy things right now. Like 4-laning the TCH right across Ontario, like HSR from Toronto to London, like electric REX everywhere and anywhere GO operates.

Building one of these will take a minimum of 10 years. Complete four-laning of the TCH will take at least two decades (based upon how slowly work on four-laning Highway 69 is progressing).

 

[innsertnamehere]

it can be accelerated provided they have the money to do it I presume. Money flow is more of the issue for highway 69 from my understanding, its not like they couldn't just accelerate the contract awards. Aboriginal negotiations probably create a bit of a snag on that one as well.

I agree however, the chances of all this coming to actually occur is slim. Lots of it will likely happen, but I am doubtful that all of it will. Stuff like Niagara 15 minute service is likely very far away, beyond the 10 year window. I can forsee GO installing some traditional commuter service in the meantime which would use the trains for a while longer. Even with that though simply switching the Lakeshore line to 15 minute EMU service would probably cut GOs bi-level requirements by close to 50%.

 

[gweed123]

What I foresee is this:

1) Electrification of the Lakeshore line from Aldershot or Hamilton to Oshawa or Bowmanville, of the Kitchener line to Mount Pleasant, and the Stouffville line to Mount Joy.

2) Increased service to Niagara Falls, Kitchener and Lincolnville/Uxbridge, with traditional GO trains running express after Aldershot, Mount Pleasant, and Mount Joy, respectively. Maybe a stop or two at places like Oakville and Pickering (major intermediate points).

3) Increased service on other existing GO lines, but using current stock.

4) Electrification of the Richmond Hill line, and hopefully incorporation into a GO REX DRL.

5) Electrification of the Milton line, hopefully including a spur to Square One.

6) Possibly long term electrifications of the Barrie line, and the remainders of the Kitchener and Niagara Falls lines.

 

[salsa]

Murray is saying lots of crazy things right now. Like 4-laning the TCH right across Ontario, like HSR from Toronto to London, like electric REX everywhere and anywhere GO operates.

Building one of these will take a minimum of 10 years. Complete four-laning of the TCH will take at least two decades (based upon how slowly work on four-laning Highway 69 is progressing).

Steve Munro wrote a great article that really puts things into perspective. Whoever is excited by Murray's announcement will probably be disappointed sooner or later.

http://stevemunro.ca/?p=9487

 

[rbt]

Steve Munro wrote a great article that really puts things into perspective. Whoever is excited by Murray's announcement will probably be disappointed sooner or later.

No doubt that many things will change with the actual EAs. Some projects will be surprisingly expense, others will be dropped or reduced in scope.

The really exciting part is the committed non-revokable funding pool. If $29B in 30 year green bonds are issued and tied to public transit expenditures before an election takes place, they'll be damn difficult to get rid of. A future government could cancel the DRL and instead build high-speed rail to Peterborough but we know that money will be going into a transit project somewhere.

GO investments tend to be good ones. I could see the conservatives following through on those, though perhaps only 30 minute frequencies instead of 15 minute.

If, as usual you get half of what is promised, this is still going to be interesting.

 

[gweed123]

No doubt that many things will change with the actual EAs. Some projects will be surprisingly expense, others will be dropped or reduced in scope.

The really exciting part is the committed non-revokable funding pool. If $29B in 30 year green bonds are issued and tied to public transit expenditures before an election takes place, they'll be damn difficult to get rid of. A future government could cancel the DRL and instead build high-speed rail to Peterborough but we know that money will be going into a transit project somewhere.

GO investments tend to be good ones. I could see the conservatives following through on those, though perhaps only 30 minute frequencies instead of 15 minute.

If, as usual you get half of what is promised, this is still going to be interesting.

If the budget does somehow pass, I really hope the Liberals issue those bonds ASAP. That way even if the government does change, the transit funding stays.

 

[TOareaFan]

If the budget does somehow pass, I really hope the Liberals issue those bonds ASAP. That way even if the government does change, the transit funding stays.

??? So government issues bonds for $30Billion.....sticks money in account...starts to plan on how to spend that money......gets defeated before projects start....new government says "don't like those plans and we can't afford those bonds" (maybe even gets elected on that platform).....cancels transit projects....takes money from dedicated account and repays bonds.

How does issuing bonds immediately give greater certainty that any future government will continue with the long term plan?

 

[gweed123]

??? So government issues bonds for $30Billion.....sticks money in account...starts to plan on how to spend that money......gets defeated before projects start....new government says "don't like those plans and we can't afford those bonds" (maybe even gets elected on that platform).....cancels transit projects....takes money from dedicated account and repays bonds.

How does issuing bonds immediately give greater certainty that any future government will continue with the long term plan?

If the bonds are tied to transit expansion, would they not be more difficult to cancel? I'll admit, I don't know the details of bond issuance, haha. I just figured that once a bond is issued for a specific purpose, un-issuing it is much more difficult.

 

[rbt]

??? So government issues bonds for $30Billion.....sticks money in account...starts to plan on how to spend that money......gets defeated before projects start....new government says "don't like those plans and we can't afford those bonds" (maybe even gets elected on that platform).....cancels transit projects....takes money from dedicated account and repays bonds.

They can do that, but they'll be paying the 30 year value of the bond (principal + NPV adjusted interest) rather than just the bond value.

It seems far less likely to take a huge political hit from a $5B interest giveaway than to simply redirect to their own pet projects which fall under the rules (Premier Ford might build a Finch Subway from Pearson to SCC).

If the bonds are tied to transit expansion, would they not be more difficult to cancel? I'll admit, I don't know the details of bond issuance, haha. I just figured that once a bond is issued for a specific purpose, un-issuing it is much more difficult.

They can buy the bonds back off the market for market value.

 

[TOareaFan]

They can do that, but they'll be paying the 30 year value of the bond (principal + NPV adjusted interest) rather than just the bond value.

It seems far less likely to take a huge political hit from a $5B interest giveaway than to simply redirect to their own pet projects which fall under the rules (Premier Ford might build a Finch Subway from Pearson to SCC).



They can buy the bonds back off the market for market value.

Yes they can buy their own bond back with the money they raised from the issue and the loss (if any) would be minimal. In fact, if rates have gone up they can buy back the bonds at a discount. There is no NPV discount if the bonds are paying their interest in an annual coupon payment (as is the norm)....its not like the buyers of the bonds prepaid for the interest.

During the days of federal and provincial surpluses governments were regularly retiring bond issues.

 

[muller877]

If the budget does somehow pass, I really hope the Liberals issue those bonds ASAP. That way even if the government does change, the transit funding stays.

There's a great way to create public accountability. Can you say Quebec-sized disaster in the making?

The Liberals have burdened the taxpayer for billions of future inflated electrical costs (we pay 10 cents, it costs them 40-80 cents to buy some power and it's locked in for 10+ years). They will throw more money away and as long as they have green in the title will the taxpayer buy it?