^The third track is certainly not needed, if all that's intended is an hourly 2WAD service that terminates at Confederation.
It's only 5.3ish miles from Confederation to West Harbour, so a GO train can easily go east from West Harbour, reach Confederation, lay over and set up in the other direction, and return to West Harbour before the next hourly train reaches West Harbour. 30 minute headways are also quite doable with a longer layover at Confederation (one train would leave upon the next's arrival). The media reports suggest that Confederation will be a 2-track station (not surprising, since they already built two bridges) - so all GO requires to run 30 minute 2WAD is one track.
CN's use of the line is not so heavy that it needs both main lines all day long. What may be most constraining for CN if they relinquish one track is - while there is double track from Hamilton to Nelles Road, once a freight leaves Hamilton, it must be able to proceed all the way to Jordan without encountering an opposing train. From Hamilton to the end of double track at Nelles Road, there are road crossings spaced close enough together that freights cannot be held for meets. It is possible for two trains to pass between Millen and Nelles Road, provided the meet is timed well enough that neither train has to stop. To work within this limitation, there will be dispatching headaches at certain times of day, but CN may have seen advantage in letting GO use up the extra capacity (one wonders about the price....)
One more thing that may take some work is - last I heard, the zone speed from MP 39 (Woodward Ave) to West Harbour (MP 43.7) was only 30 mph. Hopefully some of the money saved by not adding track will be used to increase track speeds here. We don't need 30 mph GO service.
I wonder however about what this means for service east of Confederation. GO cannot expect to tie up one track all the way to Grimsby. It's hard to believe that 2WAD GO service isn't already justified all the way to St Catherines, given the development happening along the lake and given that the QEW is packed at all hours. This latest announcement is only a trickle of added service.
- Paul