GO Transit: Construction Projects (Metrolinx, various)

[crs1026]

Going out on the limb, no one over 20 on this board will see the missing link in their life time.

Unless CN & CP work together on a joint line or one buys the other, Metrolinx is going to have to build 1-2-3 extra tracks in those corridor to get RER to work on their dime.

The problem with the missing link is - we can't wait the 5-7 years it will take to build it (longer, if the NIMBY's mount court challenges) to begin the upgraded services to Kitchener and Cambridge. So, as you say, ML will spend the money to add the tracks so that RER and freight will coexist. That removes any short term incentive to build the bypass.

Neither CN or CP should be paying the bill since CP has own their corridor since 1880's while CN since 1920's.

We should not be expecting the railways to invest their own capital or sacrifice the quality of their own operations to support passenger. Capital investment for passenger rail, and any operating subsidy, has to come from the public purse.

I'm not so sure the current system is fair and transparent in keeping these things in balance. I would be happier if the contracts between GO and the railways were public documents, and the accounting subject to regulatory oversight. One senses that the railways have the upper hand in setting the prices. GO's capital projects appear to include improvements that the freight railways arguably ought to pay for. I'm not sorry to see GO paying a premium to incent the railways to cooperate - whatever that premium might be, we just need to know how much it is and be sure the railways give it due weight.

Of course, regulatory oversight hasn't brought us cheap electricity, for instance, so maybe my faith in regulation is a bit naive.

- Paul

 

[ShonTron]

Both CN and CP have had it far too good for far too long and it's about time they starting putting in a big chunk of their own cash to make way for passenger rail and not just in Toronto.

I think CN has actually been quite good for passenger rail here in Toronto. In the 1960s, when CN built the York and Halton Subs and the new hump yard in Langstaff, it allowed GO Transit to start operations, using the freed-up space on the Oakville and Kingston Subs and the old freight yard at Mimico for storage and maintenance of its freight trains. CN has been quite open to selling its properties to GO/Metrolinx since. For GO Transit, there's only one major CN obstacle: the Halton Sub through Brampton, which was made part of the 1960s-era freight bypass. A much smaller obstacle is between Aldershot and Bayview Junction.

(For VIA, CN's dispatching on its lines is another story.)

 

[crs1026]

I think CN has actually been quite good for passenger rail here in Toronto. In the 1960s, when CN built the York and Halton Subs and the new hump yard in Langstaff, it allowed GO Transit to start operations, using the freed-up space on the Oakville and Kingston Subs and the old freight yard at Mimico for storage and maintenance of its freight trains. CN has been quite open to selling its properties to GO/Metrolinx since.

There have been good times and bad times in the relationships with both CP and CN. GO's willingness to buy up the central Toronto lines, which had market value but were not generating freight revenue, likely was a turning point as it resolved a fundamental balance sheet issue for the railways. CP has been far mellower in the Harrison-Ackman era than I would have predicted. Of course, their freight volume has been dropping; one suspects that GO is actually helping their bottom line on the Galt Sub right now (as it likely was all along). CN's resistance to electrification on their lines is not a balance sheet issue so much as an operational/risk issue - one can't fault them for viewing it as a showstopper.

- Paul

 

[robmausser]

Going out on the limb, no one over 20 on this board will see the missing link in their life time.

Unless CN & CP work together on a joint line or one buys the other, Metrolinx is going to have to build 1-2-3 extra tracks in those corridor to get RER to work on their dime.

Neither CN or CP should be paying the bill since CP has own their corridor since 1880's while CN since 1920's.

You want transports off the roads and goods in your place, then the goods must move by rail since most stuff comes off shore and 1,000's miles away in the first place.

GO Transit (Metrolinx) need to rethink how they are going to move people not only 5 years from now, but 25+ years down the road. This will require grade separations along the corridors, more stations, 200 km service on long haul routes, let along higher speed. You are looking at Ottawa-Kingston-Windsor-Niagara Fall corridor as the backbone of the system as well going north to North Bay.

The Province needs to understand that it must build an HSR system and be part of the RER. VIA Rail will cease to exist in southern Ontario like it does today and only provide service outside of Ontario or beyond Thunder Bay. It will offer service along the route that meets their needs compare what it does today.

To do this, the current budget on funding is a drop in the bucket and will take decades to build.

Most of all, smaller trains with high service is needed yesterday, let alone tomorrow. It means a totally different system to service the 416 & 905 that doesn't exist today and accepting it than the burying the head in the sand that taking place today.

If Metrolinx were to pay 100% of the costs to do this "missing link", would you think CP/CN would comply?

I am wondering because if it was cheaper to do this than add tracks in the existing corridors, I could see Metrolinx pursuing it.


If it costs Metrolinx $30 billion to add tracks to Kitchener line, Midtown Line, Milton Line, but only $8 billion for missing link, why wouldn't they go this route?

 

[crs1026]

If Metrolinx were to pay 100% of the costs to do this "missing link", would you think CP/CN would comply?
I am wondering because if it was cheaper to do this than add tracks in the existing corridors, I could see Metrolinx pursuing it.
If it costs Metrolinx $30 billion to add tracks to Kitchener line, Midtown Line, Milton Line, but only $8 billion for missing link, why wouldn't they go this route?

To be simplistic, yes they would cooperate. There are lots of examples of similar projects across North America.

The less simplistic part is what goes into "cost". There would be a list of things the railways need in the new corridor. Issues like how to serve existing customers on the line they are giving up would have to be solved to their satisfaction. ML would have to do the heavy lifting with NIMBY's and regulators. And there would be how much the sold and acquired lines are worth - it's not likely to simply be a "trade" of one for the other. The railways can't give away an asset worth $X if the asset they get back is only valued at $X-Y......that's giving away the shareholders' equity.

ML might be quite happy to work this through and reap the savings, but the political level might not. If it takes a decade or more to come to fruition, will Kitchener be happy to wait? Will the Premier be happy to wait that long to take credit for it all? Will the highways fill up in the meanwhile? How much is the Province willing to spend to get a faster outcome?

- Paul

 

[Bojaxs]

Both CN and CP have had it far too good for far too long and it's about time they starting putting in a big chunk of their own cash to make way for passenger rail and not just in Toronto.

A sound business practice!





/sarcasm

 

[mdrejhon]

Going out on the limb, no one over 20 on this board will see the missing link in their life time.

I believe you.

But let's run some optimistic scenario, from the Missing Link perspective.
(Albiet, alas, dystopian from other perspectives.)

In your opinion, will the increasing climate change urgency, create government incentives that may, perhaps, accelerate Missing Link, so that people who are under 45 today, will see it happen within their lifetimes? Can one speculate on unexpected factors like this, given the best-case predicted scenario is a 2C temperature raise.

Even if you don't believe in human-accelerated climate change (though I do, myself), let's for one moment, perhaps just assume government thinks is true and is pushing initiatives forward -- could such an acceleration happen with a massive infusion of funding from federal climate-change pressure, during say a future climate summit (e.g. circa 2030, especially if specific governments get elected) even more ambitious than this year's Paris summit?

And, assuming, today's condo boom continued mostly unabated, given Canada's enviable attractiveness as one of the few countries that will (on average) benefit from climate change?

And, assuming, of course, there was no other easy/practical way to squeeze frequent high speed service through Brampton?

And, assuming, the scenarios play out for about 20 years? (Multiple opportunities for supportive governments to push things along).

 

[gweed123]

To be simplistic, yes they would cooperate. There are lots of examples of similar projects across North America.

The less simplistic part is what goes into "cost". There would be a list of things the railways need in the new corridor. Issues like how to serve existing customers on the line they are giving up would have to be solved to their satisfaction. ML would have to do the heavy lifting with NIMBY's and regulators. And there would be how much the sold and acquired lines are worth - it's not likely to simply be a "trade" of one for the other. The railways can't give away an asset worth $X if the asset they get back is only valued at $X-Y......that's giving away the shareholders' equity.

ML might be quite happy to work this through and reap the savings, but the political level might not. If it takes a decade or more to come to fruition, will Kitchener be happy to wait? Will the Premier be happy to wait that long to take credit for it all? Will the highways fill up in the meanwhile? How much is the Province willing to spend to get a faster outcome?

- Paul

There's also nothing stopping Metrolinx from building an extra pair of tracks along the missing link to provide rail service to Northern Mississauga and Southern Brampton. At least then the people living near the new rail corridor (I say near as in "on the other side of the 407 and the hydro corridor") would actually see some benefit from it, as opposed to it being all negative.

GO could branch the RER service just south of Bramalea, and run it parallel to the 407, hitting the Hurontario LRT, and potentially going as far as Mavis or Winston Churchill.

 

[SaugeenJunction]

There's also nothing stopping Metrolinx from building an extra pair of tracks along the missing link to provide rail service to Northern Mississauga and Southern Brampton. At least then the people living near the new rail corridor (I say near as in "on the other side of the 407 and the hydro corridor") would actually see some benefit from it, as opposed to it being all negative.

GO could branch the RER service just south of Bramalea, and run it parallel to the 407, hitting the Hurontario LRT, and potentially going as far as Mavis or Winston Churchill.

I think that Metrolinx should also look at GO service on the Orangeville-Brampton Railway's Owen Sound Sub (rail ends in Orangeville). It would service Orangeville, as well as a growing Caledon, Brampton, and Mississauga. Could act as a western transit link that would be faster than LRT. Orangeville's Mayor is supportive of GO Transit Rail and it would be a boost for Caledon, Brampton, and Mississauga. Yes upgrades would need to be made so trains could go faster than 35mph, but rail is in pretty good condition otherwise.

 

[44 North]

Both these ideas sound pretty solid. And no doubt bringing anything up to Orangeville/Caledon would be an excellent preemptive move to curb future sprawl in that area of the GTHA, not to mention it gives way more network coverage to the system. If anyone wants a refresher of GO's portion of 2006 MoveOntario2020, this is what was hoped to be in place. I think "SuperGO" on Lakeshore E/W was to be the only electrified line though.

 

[TOareaFan]

I believe you.

But let's run some optimistic scenario, from the Missing Link perspective.
(Albiet, alas, dystopian from other perspectives.)

In your opinion, will the increasing climate change urgency, create government incentives that may, perhaps, accelerate Missing Link, so that people who are under 45 today, will see it happen within their lifetimes? Can one speculate on unexpected factors like this, given the best-case predicted scenario is a 2C temperature raise.

Even if you don't believe in human-accelerated climate change (though I do, myself), let's for one moment, perhaps just assume government thinks is true and is pushing initiatives forward -- could such an acceleration happen with a massive infusion of funding from federal climate-change pressure, during say a future climate summit (e.g. circa 2030, especially if specific governments get elected) even more ambitious than this year's Paris summit?

And, assuming, today's condo boom continued mostly unabated, given Canada's enviable attractiveness as one of the few countries that will (on average) benefit from climate change?

And, assuming, of course, there was no other easy/practical way to squeeze frequent high speed service through Brampton?

And, assuming, the scenarios play out for about 20 years? (Multiple opportunities for supportive governments to push things along).

I think the missing link (don't like the name but seems to be the one being used) has a much higher chance of happening and, even, accelerated greatly with our new government.

It fits the platform in so many ways

1. if it allows (as we think) for greater transit expansion it fits with the greening strategy
2. if it allows for better/smoother freight it could be sold as a "national" economic initiative (even though it is a GTA project)
3. it is the sort of infrastructure that they said they would build with the controlled/limited deficits they proposed.
4. it has legacy potential....and I sense that this is something important to the new prime minister.

I think it is a project that could be sold to the nation as a "grand and modern" initiative.....and, you know, even as a non-Liberal I don't think I would have any qualms supporting it. Of all the things they could do with their spending/building plans, it likely is one (perhaps the one) with the greatest potential for payback and "nation building".

So, while i get Drum's pessimism on the date...and in a normal context would not disagree with him.....I could see this being a project pushed up and pushed out in record time as a grand gesture.

 

[ShonTron]

No, no, no.

With the exception of an occasional major snowstorm, or a collision that shuts down Highway 10, bus service will always be faster between Brampton and Orangeville than a rail service. In the distant future, maybe, service could be extended to Mayfield Road or King Street on a spur of the Kitchener or Milton trains, but even that's fantasy map territory.

 

[crs1026]

I can't imagine the residents along the Forks of Credit line accepting increased rail service past their tony estates. There is a lot of money in the backroads up that way. Folks up there value their seclusion, that's why they live there. They accept the current tour train business, because it's slow, quaint, and it only runs occasionally (although its business is booming, actually - autumn leaf tours, snow tours, Santa tours, you name it).

I also can't imagine the community accepting the impact on all the parks up there. Bringing the line up to GO standards, and raising speeds through the Forks/Cataract part, would change an awful lot of recreational land and activities.

- Paul

 

[SaugeenJunction]

I can't imagine the residents along the Forks of Credit line accepting increased rail service past their tony estates. There is a lot of money in the backroads up that way. Folks up there value their seclusion, that's why they live there. They accept the current tour train business, because it's slow, quaint, and it only runs occasionally (although its business is booming, actually - autumn leaf tours, snow tours, Santa tours, you name it).

I also can't imagine the community accepting the impact on all the parks up there. Bringing the line up to GO standards, and raising speeds through the Forks/Cataract part, would change an awful lot of recreational land and activities.

- Paul

Yes the OBRY tour train is booming... its very hard to get seats on the train. This summer they even purchased another passenger car. An interesting alternative to full GO service would be a summer service, like Niagara. If GO re-built the interchange from the Kitchener line to the Owen Sound Sub (just west of Brampton GO, at the diamond), trains could run from Union via Brampton to Orangeville, with stops along the way connecting to trails ect. It would benefit Orangeville and running trains at slower speeds would be acceptable. Credit Valley explorer would continue to operate, as it is a different "niche" service (serves food, has a dome car) than a summer tourist GO.

 

[robmausser]

I think the Missing Link has potential to really benefit the city of Toronto too.

We could very easily (after building the Missing Link of course) build a GO RER line along these then-unused CP corridors for a Weston-Midtown line that creates connectivity with a lot of GO/TTC services and offer express transit to currently unserviced areas of Toronto.

Highlighted in blue on map:

The nice thing is that none of this would compete with current Metrolinx tracks: Even the current CP track along the Weston Sub is a separate track.

We could even call it Smarttrack North! /s