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General railway discussions


I believe this article shows the route: https://riverreporter.com/stories/a...ranton-to-nyc-rail-line-picks-up-steam,126898

It has a map:

1730692626042.png


Update: this article is connected to the video above and has even more details and an additional map.

 
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If a certain somebody gets elected in the US next week, I can see an unravelling of NAFTA in a manner that might undo the current tri national structure of our railways. That might move Canada forwards, but that's a smaller gain in. larger loss.
I expect Trump will strongly consider outright canceling free trade with Mexico and renegotiating a separate FTA with Canada. If we find this week that Trump has gained both chambers of Congress we should expect dramatic changes to trade, including impacts on rail issues. I wonder if Amtrak will take a hit.
 
I expect Trump will strongly consider outright canceling free trade with Mexico and renegotiating a separate FTA with Canada. If we find this week that Trump has gained both chambers of Congress we should expect dramatic changes to trade, including impacts on rail issues. I wonder if Amtrak will take a hit.

Agreed. Also I expect part of a new FTA with Canada will be a requirement that we match all USA tariffs, both existing and future, to prevent Canada from being a route around their new global tariffs.

If that's an ask, it'll be a very difficult decision for Poilievre as every other trade agreement Canada has will be void.
 
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Agreed. Also I expect part of a new FTA with Canada will be a requirement that we match all USA tariffs, both existing and future, to prevent Canada from being a route around those tariffs.

If that's an ask, it'll be a very difficult decision for Poilievre as every other trade agreement Canada has will be void.

One significant sector to watch is the auto industry. If the US decides to retract that deal, a great deal of cross border shipping (both rail and trucking) is going to change dramatically.

- Paul
 
I expect Trump will strongly consider outright canceling free trade with Mexico and renegotiating a separate FTA with Canada.

While this is certainly possible..............

I would point out, that with a few notable exceptions, Trump's rhetoric and often his advertised policy moves did not really align.

As example, much was made of his tariffs on China during his last term. Worth noting trade with China did dip briefly, then was further impacted by COVID, but by 2023, Imports from China and the U.S/China Trade deficit were fairly comparable to 2018.

Not the high impact that was advertised.

That notwithstanding that the Biden-Harris regime maintained most of those tariffs and actually increased several.

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Meanwhile, the ripping up of NAFTA was supposed to favour the U.S.......but lets have a look at those trade numbers:

1730901183722.png

From: https://www.statista.com/statistics/218273/total-value-of-us-trade-in-goods-with-canada-since-2004/

Canada's total exports to the U.S. have grown substantially as has its trade surplus.

But at least he penalized the Mexicans right? Ummm

Mexican Exports to the U.S. - 5 year trend:

1730901397614.png



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None of which is to say that this time won't be different.

Just be careful not to conflate rhetoric or superficial gestures with substantive policy.
 
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None of which is to say that this time won't be different.

Just be careful not to conflate rhetoric or superficial gestures with substantive policy.

Several people have pointed out that Trump is unlikely to directly criticize the current trade deal, as it was negotiated on his watch, so he would be admitting he did a poor job.

Nevertheless, the data you presented does give the buy-American faction grounds to argue that the deal must have been flawed - in that it gave Canada and Mexico so much room to increase trade. That argument has so much room to bend the sub-data back and forth that I won't go there....the point is merely that the argument doesn't have to be proven to be used.

My fear is not Trump so much as a majority Congress who will feel the onus to restore American jobs, and won't be any more inclined to reasonble arguments.

I would predict that a negotiation is coming, and Canada should prepare for it wisely.

- Pul
 
Thought this was interesting. Wabtec testing out a battery powered freight locomotive. I wonder if Wabtec can perfect this technology could they come out with a battery powered MPIExpress locomotive? Perhaps GO could have electric trains without overhead wires?

The second half of the video was more interesting with the locomotive idling.
 
Thought this was interesting. Wabtec testing out a battery powered freight locomotive. I wonder if Wabtec can perfect this technology could they come out with a battery powered MPIExpress locomotive? Perhaps GO could have electric trains without overhead wires?

The second half of the video was more interesting with the locomotive idling.

It looks like the test was the battery engine working against two diesels in dynamic brake mode. Much of the sound was the traction gear and blowers, and the dynamic brakes on the diesels, which are likely identical between the two modes.

There's no doubt that a battery loco can "equal a diesel" in the sense that the amps going to the traction motors will be identical and therefore the traction motors won't know the difference...... until the battery is drained. I wonder what the duty cycle consisted of, and how much regen energy the battery unit collected. BHP is a one-way railway in the sense that it is (net) mostly downgrade for loads from the mines to the docks at sea level, and upgrade for empties back to the mines. I wonder how that impacts the duty cycle.

- Paul
 
. BHP is a one-way railway in the sense that it is (net) mostly downgrade for loads from the mines to the docks at sea level, and upgrade for empties back to the mines. I wonder how that impacts the duty cycle.

- Paul
Wouldn’t that be reasonably similar to the Quebec/Labrador iron ore operations?
 
Wouldn’t that be reasonably similar to the Quebec/Labrador iron ore operations?

Very much so - although I am not knowledgeable about how much up and down there is along the way, but for example Hedland on the BHP is 1780 ft above sea level, and Schefferville is about the same amount above Sept-Iles. Not a large grade for 200+ miles of line, but the energy requirements will include that gradient.

- Paul
 
I wonder if Wabtec can perfect this technology could they come out with a battery powered MPIExpress locomotive? Perhaps GO could have electric trains without overhead wires?
I have a feeling the MPI brand is dead, so any new locos reverting to GE, such as their P47AC proposal

Meanwhile electrek reports on a UK trial of a Hitachi battery intercity trainset. Mind you, the distances between cities in England are not exactly Canadian distances.
 

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