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Future of Toronto condo prices

rbt

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The comment that people on average generally make more in US cities is completely false .

It certainly used to be true before 2007 and several decades leading up to it. Having up to a 25% unemployment rate brings down the US per-capita averages by a lot. USA ferility rate is also much higher than Canada's now (2 kids per female versus 1.5) which can throw out the numbers if not restricted to working age.


At this time Canada's per-capita income level is higher than the United States as is the Canadian per-capita GDP; it stands to reason that Canadian cities would be doing comparatively well over US cities.

Of course, I also expect this to revert again over the next decade once the US starts firing on all cylindars again.
 
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brockm

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It certainly used to be true before 2007 and several decades leading up to it. Having up to a 25% unemployment rate brings down the US per-capita averages by a lot. USA ferility rate is also much higher than Canada's now (2 kids per female versus 1.5) which can throw out the numbers if not restricted to working age.


At this time Canada's per-capita income level is higher than the United States as is the Canadian per-capita GDP; it stands to reason that Canadian cities would be doing comparatively well over US cities.

Of course, I also expect this to revert again over the next decade once the US starts firing on all cylindars again.

The exception is the tech sector. The wages in the tech sector in the US have continued to rise, even through the recession. In fact, companies like Google, Oracle, Apple, VMWare, Red Hat all hired like crazy through the recession.

The truth is, Canada sucks for tech salaries, TBH. In Toronto, a senior software engineer will make like $60-$80k. In NYC or San Francisco Bay Area (aka. Silicon Valley), they'll make $200k+.

Anyone in the industry will tell you this. It's as true today, as it was before the financial crisis.

But the tech sector in Toronto isn't really dynamic at all. It's conservative, there's little risk capital, and Canadian companies tend to choose credentials over experience. Unlike the US, where a high school drop out with 10 years relavant experience can get a $200k offer from any major firm because they're desperate for talent -- that's of course, assuming they're talented as evidenced by they're experience. (I know plenty of software and web people like this who work in the valley)

In this industry, the talent still largely goes south.
 
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marsh

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Don't forget that even if people make more money in the US, they have to pay a lot more for health insurance, which we don't. My understanding is that property taxes can also be very high in certain metropolitan areas. Anyways I'm not quite sure what the point is about whether US people are paid more or less than in Canada.
 

brockm

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Don't forget that even if people make more money in the US, they have to pay a lot more for health insurance, which we don't. My understanding is that property taxes can also be very high in certain metropolitan areas. Anyways I'm not quite sure what the point is about whether US people are paid more or less than in Canada.

Pretty much any employer who pays more than a $35k salary in the US, provides health insurance as an employment benefit.
 

cdr108

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My understanding is that property taxes can also be very high in certain metropolitan areas. Anyways I'm not quite sure what the point is about whether US people are paid more or less than in Canada.

not sure about property taxes throughout the US; however, i have family in the SFO bay area.
their property taxes (1%) are based on the purchase price:
* so if you bought say 15 years ago for $100K, you pay $1,000 annually.
* if one bought at the peak for $1MM, you pay $10,000 annually, which sucks to be you b/c in some of those areas prices have dropped to less than 1/2.

again, i don't know if this is based state wide, or by county, but last year for them, there was a referendum to change property taxes to reflect market value and it was voted down.

more income = greater ability to pay more
 

avenirv

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Pretty much any employer who pays more than a $35k salary in the US, provides health insurance as an employment benefit.

1. usually they pay 50% of the health care
2. 90% send their kids to private schools
3. certain cities have their kind of income taxes
4. family doctors make more in canada
5. spe3cialist doctors working in academic hospitals or goverment ones do not make more than their canadian counterparts; those working in the pure private clinics working very hard make very big bucks

if your income is below 150K it is better in canada. but if you have guts and make more it is better in the states.
 

CN Tower

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their property taxes (1%) are based on the purchase price:
* so if you bought say 15 years ago for $100K, you pay $1,000 annually.
* if one bought at the peak for $1MM, you pay $10,000 annually, which sucks to be you b/c in some of those areas prices have dropped to less than 1/2.

it's incomprehensible to me how this policy persists when california is always on the verge of insolvency.
 

T.O.Condo

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I agree tech companies in Canada pay far lower compared to our neighbor. Matter of fact my friend who making 60K in Toronto was got an offer for at MS for 110 k+. Not to mention bonus, stock, and other benefits. Almost all new Canadian graduates look for jobs in US. Health system sucks however most jobs offer very nice health coverage. It's unfortunate we don't get treated equally for exactly the same type of work, when they see all the smart people leave hopefully companies will change their mind about being competitive.
 

littlemissJJ888

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It's unfortunate we don't get treated equally for exactly the same type of work, when they see all the smart people leave hopefully companies will change their mind about being competitive.

LoL - this is exactly why things are being outsourced to India...cuz someone will do it for 1/10 the price.
 

TheKingEast

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I agree tech companies in Canada pay far lower compared to our neighbor. Matter of fact my friend who making 60K in Toronto was got an offer for at MS for 110 k+. Not to mention bonus, stock, and other benefits. Almost all new Canadian graduates look for jobs in US. Health system sucks however most jobs offer very nice health coverage. It's unfortunate we don't get treated equally for exactly the same type of work, when they see all the smart people leave hopefully companies will change their mind about being competitive.

As someone who works in IT, this is so true. Really sucks. My buddy who I went to school with is making double what I am.
 

daveto

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USA ferility rate is also much higher than Canada's now (2 kids per female versus 1.5).

At this time Canada's per-capita income level is higher than the United States as is the Canadian per-capita GDP; it stands to reason that Canadian cities would be doing comparatively well over US cities.
.

At first I thought this couldn't be true, but sure enough it is indeed. So surprising, that seems to me to be a huge difference
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_and_dependent_territories_by_fertility_rate

At this time Canada's per-capita income level is higher than the United States as is the Canadian per-capita GDP; it stands to reason that Canadian cities would be doing comparatively well over US cities.
.

But on this one I think you're off, as the World Bank says that in 2011, the US per-capita GDP was 20% higher than Canada ($48k to $40k)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita
 

daveto

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1. usually they pay 50% of the health care
2. 90% send their kids to private schools

#1 is 40% according to Aon Hewitte (half premiums, half deductibles/co-pay)
http://www.prnewswire.com/news-rele...n-2012-according-to-aon-hewitt-130847468.html

#2 is 10% according to the Council for American Education (vs 5.6% for Canada, according to Google)
http://www.prnewswire.com/news-rele...n-2012-according-to-aon-hewitt-130847468.html
http://www.prnewswire.com/news-rele...n-2012-according-to-aon-hewitt-130847468.html

The missing piece of the puzzle is of course income taxes. As it happens, income tax in Canada vs the US is surprisingly similar, although there are big differences by states or even some cities (Like NYC which has a city resident tax). But the big income tax savings in the US comes from various tax deductions (ie Mortgage Interest, Retirement Contributions ($50k+ in US, vs $22k in Canada)). Also, the US has sales taxes that are typically 5-6% lower than Canada as they have no Federal Sales tax (unlike Canada)
 

avenirv

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i worked for about 10 years in the states. all the people i was working with and talked with had their kids sent to private schools. but they were not poor or on social assistance or living on projects. they were solid middle class.
california has a problem because it reduced the property taxes and that is the main source for funding the public education.
but my perception may be wrong...
 

rbt

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But on this one I think you're off, as the World Bank says that in 2011, the US per-capita GDP was 20% higher than Canada ($48k to $40k)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita

Yup. US GDP per capita is higher but that doesn't all get translated into salaries for employees, particularlay for unemployed. A small uptick in unemployed really drags down median income.

GDP also goes into dividends, topped up corporate bank accounts, etc. and corporate profits in the USA are at record levels; far outstripping inflation since the crash.
 
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daveto

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RBT, I'm not sure I understand your point about unemployment. And wouldn't your point similarly affect Canada's figures? (US unemployment at 8.3%, and Canada at 7.3%)

Could you provide a data source showing that either average or median Canadian employment income is currently higher than the US? Thx in advance
DT
 

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