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Future of Toronto condo prices

Prices are going up everywhere and it won't stop for the next while. At the beginning of the Condo Building craze (mid-late 2000's) , builders were selling units at more than generous prices. People started to buy , renovate and flip for a nice profit return. In the past few years (starting from 2010), new projects demanded more money from buyers, so that they could eat up more of the profit instead. People still bought units , started to rent it out more , and either flipped it a few years later or are still holding it to flip it at a later date for higher profits. Today, Builders are including some very nice upgrades, building eco friendly buildings to entice buyers but still selling at the same price, if not higher.

With Toronto considered one of the most exciting up and coming cities in the world, attracting immigration and world investments, imo prices are going to just keep rising (new or resale). If construction of condo's stay at the current rate, for some of the older buildings, prices will stay stagnant or perhaps lower a little. If construction slows down (which won't happen for the next 5 to 10 years), then actually condo prices may go up dramatically.

Look at NYC, UK for the past 20 years, to understand what is going to happen to Toronto's condo/apartment prices in the next 5 to 10 years
 
yaz16 said:
Prices are going up everywhere and it won't stop for the next while. At the beginning of the Condo Building craze (mid-late 2000's) , builders were selling units at more than generous prices. People started to buy , renovate and flip for a nice profit return. In the past few years (starting from 2010), new projects demanded more money from buyers, so that they could eat up more of the profit instead. People still bought units , started to rent it out more , and either flipped it a few years later or are still holding it to flip it at a later date for higher profits. Today, Builders are including some very nice upgrades, building eco friendly buildings to entice buyers but still selling at the same price, if not higher.

With Toronto considered one of the most exciting up and coming cities in the world, attracting immigration and world investments, imo prices are going to just keep rising (new or resale). If construction of condo's stay at the current rate, for some of the older buildings, prices will stay stagnant or perhaps lower a little. If construction slows down (which won't happen for the next 5 to 10 years), then actually condo prices may go up dramatically.

Look at NYC, UK for the past 20 years, to understand what is going to happen to Toronto's condo/apartment prices in the next 5 to 10 years
Click to expand...


Toronto and GTA population 2012 is probably around 3.0 million (or 6.0 million for GTA) if we extrapolate the <100,000 new immigrants each year added to 2006 census that Toronto had a population of 2.48 million people (5.5 million in the GTA - Greater Toronto Area)
http://www.toronto.ca/toronto_facts/diversity.htm

NYC population 2010: 8.2 million; http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_New_York_City
last time NYC population was around 3.0 million = 1900 with 3.4 million;
last time NYC population was around 6.0 million = 1920 with 5.6 million to 1930 with 6.9 million

so shouldn't we be paying NYC 1920's price (adjusted for inflation) for real estate which was $15 psf to 1930s price of $5 psf ???

http://ny.curbed.com/archives/2012/01/11/a_century_of_nyc_real_estate_history_condensed.php
 
yaz16 said:
With Toronto considered one of the most exciting up and coming cities in the world, attracting immigration and world investments...

Look at NYC, UK for the past 20 years, to understand what is going to happen to Toronto's condo/apartment prices in the next 5 to 10 years
Click to expand...

I've lived in Toronto my entire life, mostly in the downtown core, (Annex, Queen West, etc), and I've traveled extensively worldwide (NYC, London, Dubai, Paris, Russia, Turkey, Ukraine, Germany). Toronto has a lot of good qualities - safe, clean, fair, lots of trees/parks, efficient and with a strong protestant work ethic

But if you think that Toronto is "...one of the most exciting up and coming cities in the world...", then you have led a very sheltered life.

Toronto is seriously deficient in the following areas
-nightlife
-fashion
-architecture
-gambling/gaming
-cultural influence
-political influence

People from foreign countries are dumbfounded when they see what $300k buys in Toronto. A friend of mine visiting from Europe recently said "But its just Toronto, its not like there is anything special here".

I'm proud of my city, and we're a lot less boring then we were 20 yrs ago, but let's not get carried away.
 
also Toronto doesn't have the money and influence of NYC when it comes to:

- high paying finance jobs where 6 figure bonuses are the norm
- theatre like broadway, etc
- big international fashion designers and mags
 
cdr108 said:
also Toronto doesn't have the money and influence of NYC when it comes to:

- high paying finance jobs where 6 figure bonuses are the norm
- theatre like broadway, etc
- big international fashion designers and mags
Click to expand...

And this is precisely why I don't think the current pricing is sustainable. People don't really make that much money here (Some make a lot but many are middle of the road). Salaries also don't go up that much here. I have friends in the States getting $20K raises regularly. In Toronto, I've heard of people getting promotions with either minimal raises or no raise at all. Cost of living's too high. Salaries aren't high enough and aren't growing at a high enough rate.

So I look at these high condo prices for shoeboxes and wonder who in the hell is buying these things?
 
TheKingEast said:
And this is precisely why I don't think the current pricing is sustainable. People don't really make that much money here (Some make a lot but many are middle of the road). Salaries also don't go up that much here. I have friends in the States getting $20K raises regularly. In Toronto, I've heard of people getting promotions with either minimal raises or no raise at all. Cost of living's too high. Salaries aren't high enough and aren't growing at a high enough rate.

So I look at these high condo prices for shoeboxes and wonder who in the hell is buying these things?
Click to expand...

People with cash and access to capital I presume. Considering that every building out of the ground is 80%+ sold with non-refundable deposits I suppose the question then becomes, what difference does it make who bought them? Nor is vacancy any problem at present. I suspect when The King East first rose from the ground there were rumblings about the sustainability of prices in that fringe area as well. And look how far we've progressed in urban renewal!

As was discussed in another thread, Feb 2012 new condo sales are down 59% from Feb 2011. Clearly there is growing evidence of a slowdown in this sector. Let's all hope that it is not too severe for the benefit of everyone with a vested interest in its ongoing success, including supporters of urban renewal and revitalization.
 
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yaz16 said:
Look at NYC, UK for the past 20 years, to understand what is going to happen to Toronto's condo/apartment prices in the next 5 to 10 years
Click to expand...

Look at Toronto 23 years ago, to understand what is going to happen to Toronto's condo/apartment prices in the next 5 to 10 years
 
daveto said:
I've lived in Toronto my entire life, mostly in the downtown core, (Annex, Queen West, etc), and I've traveled extensively worldwide (NYC, London, Dubai, Paris, Russia, Turkey, Ukraine, Germany). Toronto has a lot of good qualities - safe, clean, fair, lots of trees/parks, efficient and with a strong protestant work ethic

But if you think that Toronto is "...one of the most exciting up and coming cities in the world...", then you have led a very sheltered life.

Toronto is seriously deficient in the following areas
-nightlife
-fashion
-architecture
-gambling/gaming
-cultural influence
-political influence

People from foreign countries are dumbfounded when they see what $300k buys in Toronto. A friend of mine visiting from Europe recently said "But its just Toronto, its not like there is anything special here".

I'm proud of my city, and we're a lot less boring then we were 20 yrs ago, but let's not get carried away.
Click to expand...

+1
 
^^^
I find the 2 threads overlap a fair amount. Hence I think it would be more interesting if all of us discussing this concept discussed it in 1 forum. I don't really care which of the 2 "survives". Just strikes me we could have a more lively conversation if there was 1 instead of the 2 threads.

I did not mean to strike any low blow Ka1.

Frankly, I did not even realize you started the thread. I shall have to pay more attention in the future.
 
The comment that people on average generally make more in US cities is completely false .....

Comments along the lines of, Toronto is not a New York or Paris or London. Sure, but how many cities are ? You're comparing Toronto to the top 5/10 cities in the world ... and real estate in Toronto does not compare to those other cities in cost, regardless of the price increases over the last 5/10 years.
 
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Top 10

Toronto is typically in the top 15-20 cities worldwide in most categories. I'd love to see us crack the top 10.

Any thoughts on how we can achieve that result my fellow UT'ers?
 
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