I would suspect any sentence, if and when it arrives after the inevitable appeals, will be comparatively inconsequential and, for some, disappointing. At the end of the day, he is a first-time offender, it is a non-violent crime and the dollar value is not particularly significant.
Another complication factor is, unless they change the legislation, the US Secret Service would have to be somehow embedded into the state prison (unless he specifically declines protection - which he wouldn't, just cuz).
This won't impact his base, or those committed Democrats. It might move the middle third of voters; moreso if there are further convictions between now and November.