carturo15
Active Member
I don't see anything special about that "I" model, the closets are very small, for smaller units I have seen much bigger closets. for that small place an island is a waste of space, making the living are very tiny.
Five Condos (Graywood Developments, Mod Developments) - Real Estate -
- Thread starter grp
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Sunny Batra
Active Member
I agree however everyone wants this model 'I' since it is the lowest priced 1 bedroom in the tower. When demand is high and supply is less you know what happens then...
myfive
Active Member
Interesting comments but nothing out of the ordinary.Don't know if you could have had the door coming into the kitchen. May have been too tight with the island there. I think the layout is pretty spectacular and it amazes me for a small unit like this they were able to get the bedroom on the window. The kitchen and living area combo the way it is laid out is absolutely fantastic for what i like. You'll have a heyday with with some of the other units, as one can always fiind something.
myfive
Active Member
I don't think the island is a waste here. The remaining living area is perfect for a couch, recliner and flat panel with a few setup options. It is what it is, and people looling for more space won't like it.
myfive
Active Member
They just increased the price of the 'I' unit by $20,000. This was over and above the early increase of $5,000. I believe when they go public there is likely to be another increase, which i think is 3rd weekend in June.
KA1
Senior Member
I think I read somewhere that real estate prices are supposed to drop by 10 to 15%, or even more, in the next 2/3 years. Did any body else read the same story?
interested
Senior Member
Yes. Benjamin Taal, economist at the CIBC is quoted I believe as calling for 10% stating as well that about 23% of housing is overpriced. Derek Holt whom I believe is an economist at RBC or Scotia (don't remember which) echoed similar feelings.
I personally still believe it boils down to fundamentals. I was asked if I would buy as an investor a unit at $550/sq. ft (not in this development bit a very desirable hot building) but I just can't make the math make any sense at these prices. I would think that most investors will be thinking the same way and if that is the case, up to 50%(my guess of the investor percentage) of the market will be staying away now.
That said, in Europe prices are much higher and rents generally lower as a percentage of purchase price and yet prices still hold. I realize people will say look at Spain,England etc where prices dropped but I am not talking about those markets that experienced 200-300% growth over the past 5-10 years much like Florida and Arizona did. I am talking about other countries where the growth was more reserved and the price declines therefore more modest.
luxome
Active Member
i have 2 units... i thinking about letting go one on the high floor...anyone interested?
myfive
Active Member
Just my thoughts on this:
1. They almost always say this. I bought my first condo in 2002 at 18 Yonge..it was pre-construction. I got a corner 2 bedroom for $205k. All the articles in the paper and on the radio were calling for a drop in prices. I was even a bit embarrased to tell my family about it as i could tell they were thinking was a dumb investment i'd made. Everybody believes the media!
2. You have to make your own call. IT'S YOUR CALL!! Be careful you don't get manipulated by the media..in all things.
3. Eventually they will all be right. Prices will not go up indefinately, so you have to be careful you don't overleverage yourself.
I think 5 years out, there is definately some risk, which is why i only bought a small unit. It's also why i cancelled my 1 Bloor purchase. That was for more money, they wanted 25% down over the next 2 years, and i think that project will take 7 or 8 years to build (The Pemberton one across the street will be about 6) and i thought it was just too much money and too far out. The risks get bigger, but maybe the appreciation potential gets bigger as well. I may regret the decisions i made on these projects, (i make mistakes all the time!), but heh, you have to take some risks!
KA1
Senior Member
Thanks for your wise thoughts, myfive.
interested
Senior Member
I think this is sensible advise, however, if alot of "investors" are speculating on price increases with no intention of being landlords if the market does not escalate in value, and further, if alot of those same "investors" are not financially solid enough to close in the event of a downturn(say speculating on 2 or 3 condos in different projects), the situation could unravel quite quickly. And as prices drop, it drags other somewhat better capitalized investors down with it.
I am not saying this is the case. Alot of speculation out there is that 30 to50% are investors. The question is, how many of those investors are in the situation I described above. If it is less than 5-10%, shouldn't be a big problem. If it is 25% or more, then it could get very ugly over a few years: 2012 to 2014 is where I would predict. It may soften in 2011 but the real question will be 2012 onwards. (investors can hold on in the short term but longer term usually either willingly or unwillingly cut their losses).
Of course all of this is predicated on prices dropping and as you say, maybe it will keep going up for a few more years. I just doubt this is the more likely scenario.
aguduser
A part of UT
Just send you a PM!
myfive
Active Member
interested....yes, there is always the risk of the house of cards coming tumbling down. I like your timeframes here. I'm very comfortable until the US elections in 2012. I think we will go up until then. Thereafter is the more difficult call to make. But we will be sitting at higher prices then. Let's call the the CIBC prediction the $600 sq ft prediction in terms of putting a start price on it. $600 because X2 and Five are selling for about $600 sq ft, and you can get a decent resale now at CASA for about the same $600. So let's see where we go from here. I'm projecting $750 sq ft by 2012. So even if we dropped a whopping 20% from that , it would bring us back to the $600 price range again....so we'd have to get a pretty hefty drop to lose money.
There is a really good long term cycle prognosticator i follow and he sees U.S. real estate bottoming in 2012 and moving up for the next 3 to 4 years thereafter. So if that were to actually happen, then it's reasonable to assume we would carry on up with them over this time frame. This would put the price per sq ft in the $900 to $1000 range as a best case scenerio into 2015/16. I'm not saying this is going to happen, but it's a consideration that helped me pull the trigger. And remember, nobody wants the masses to think like this, as you can imagine the speculation would really get out of hand. But the possibility exists.
So i kind of see the worst case scenerio a breakeven one over the next 5 years until the project is completed, and perhaps a small loss if we tumble a lot. But the upside based on the numbers i've quoted could be quite exciting as well.
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interested
Senior Member
My Five,
I must admit that I do not share your enthusiasm for 2012 hitting $750. My personal view is that there will be no price appreciation or minimal to 2012. Best case scenario would be $650 and I would tend to think it will be more like $600 to $625 range this year and next. Then, if you take off 10% I think we may be looking at a slight decrease to $550 to $600. I think personally prices will hold at $600 or $625/sq. ft but that you will see incentives creeping in to continue to stimulate sales.
I am not disputing your decision to buy. I think the $1000 is very optimistic. Not saying it can't happen but I think if it does, it will be another bubble of massive proportions and very disruptive. The economy would have to have runaway inflation almost for this to happen.
Consider that in 2002 costs were in the neighbourhood of $200/sq. ft. They are now closer to $500-$600/sq. ft. Let's allow there are somewhat better finishings being offered. If in 5 more years, it was $1000, you are talking about a five fold increase in price in 13 years. In the US, they tripled in 6 years in the very hot markets and you see the result.
As well, for selfish reasons, I have kids in their 20's and I would like them to be able to afford to buy housing. Let's remember that while people can make money at this (and lose) the principal purpose of residential real estate is to house people and give them a home, not a commodity to be traded.
One final point, the reason that I suggested 2012 was because in the initial parts of the downturn, human psychology is to believe things will improve again. As time goes on, the reality/mood changes, the carrying costs come more into play, and the trend tends to fulfill itself.
With the above caveats, I really don't know what will happen and am only making a somewhat educated guess based on some assumptions and history.
myfive
Active Member
interested...the $200 is incorrect and skews your analysis. Don't know if you're talking about Scarborough! I'm just talking about the Yonge corridor around Bloor. I was in 18 Yorkville around 2002 or so and it was well over $300 sq ft. Prices were fairly flat for a while there. In 2005, CASA opened around $375 sq ft.