Five Condos (Graywood Developments, Mod Developments) - Real Estate -

Sunny Batra

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No one seems to be talking about the immigration. Approximately 100,000 people immigrate to Ontario every year out of which 80% immigrants settle in GTA. Assuming that these 80% or 80,000 people have family of four that means 20,000 families settling into GTA every year. That means we need about 20,000 more homes each year in GTA to shelter these immigrants. So demand is there. Those people have to live somewhere and that demand will result in increased home prices.

Prices in Toronto are still low compared to some of the major cities in North America. London and Manhattan cities are averaging at $2,000 per square foot and Vancouver is around 1000 - 1200 per square foot. Toronto is still around 500 - 600 per square foot. Therefore Toronto seems to attract investors from around the world.

I have mentioned some of these in my February's newsletter http://sunnybatra.posterous.com/hot-real-estate-market-continues-its-trend-in

Also there isn't much land left in Toronto. Most of these building are being built on parking lots. We are beginning to see developers buying older developments and demolishing them for the purpose of building a condo. Some of the examples would be X2 Condos, One Bloor, Five Condos, Chaz On Charles etc. It reminds me of an old expression, “Have you bought your land yet, we are not making any more!"

If you are buying for the purpose of flipping then you might win some and might loose some similar to stock market. This is not investing; it is called gambling. However if you are buying with the intention of keeping it for lets say 10-15 years or even more you will surely enjoy very good returns.

Sunny Batra TREB average price.jpg


Invest with confidence and stay away from gambling. :)
 

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luxome

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No one seems to be talking about the immigration. Approximately 100,000 people immigrate to Ontario every year out of which 80% immigrants settle in GTA. Assuming that these 80% or 80,000 people have family of four that means 20,000 families settling into GTA every year. That means we need about 20,000 more homes each year in GTA to shelter these immigrants. So demand is there. Those people have to live somewhere and that demand will result in increased home prices.

Prices in Toronto are still low compared to some of the major cities in North America. London and Manhattan cities are averaging at $2,000 per square foot and Vancouver is around 1000 - 1200 per square foot. Toronto is still around 500 - 600 per square foot. Therefore Toronto seems to attract investors from around the world.

I have mentioned some of these in my February's newsletter http://sunnybatra.posterous.com/hot-real-estate-market-continues-its-trend-in

Also there isn't much land left in Toronto. Most of these building are being built on parking lots. We are beginning to see developers buying older developments and demolishing them for the purpose of building a condo. Some of the examples would be X2 Condos, One Bloor, Five Condos, Chaz On Charles etc. It reminds me of an old expression, “Have you bought your land yet, we are not making any more!"

If you are buying for the purpose of flipping then you might win some and might loose some similar to stock market. This is not investing; it is called gambling. However if you are buying with the intention of keeping it for lets say 10-15 years or even more you will surely enjoy very good returns.

View attachment 4368

Invest with confidence and stay away from gambling. :)

that seems to be what most realtors are saying....very optimistic...not saying i totally disagree with your post...the ones who enjoy the good returns are the realtors with higher commission with resales...
 

cdr108

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No one seems to be talking about the immigration. Approximately 100,000 people immigrate to Ontario every year out of which 80% immigrants settle in GTA. Assuming that these 80% or 80,000 people have family of four that means 20,000 families settling into GTA every year. That means we need about 20,000 more homes each year in GTA to shelter these immigrants. So demand is there. Those people have to live somewhere and that demand will result in increased home prices.

Prices in Toronto are still low compared to some of the major cities in North America. London and Manhattan cities are averaging at $2,000 per square foot and Vancouver is around 1000 - 1200 per square foot. Toronto is still around 500 - 600 per square foot. Therefore Toronto seems to attract investors from around the world.

I have mentioned some of these in my February's newsletter http://sunnybatra.posterous.com/hot-real-estate-market-continues-its-trend-in

Also there isn't much land left in Toronto. Most of these building are being built on parking lots. We are beginning to see developers buying older developments and demolishing them for the purpose of building a condo. Some of the examples would be X2 Condos, One Bloor, Five Condos, Chaz On Charles etc. It reminds me of an old expression, “Have you bought your land yet, we are not making any more!"

If you are buying for the purpose of flipping then you might win some and might loose some similar to stock market. This is not investing; it is called gambling. However if you are buying with the intention of keeping it for lets say 10-15 years or even more you will surely enjoy very good returns.

View attachment 4368

Invest with confidence and stay away from gambling. :)


2006 Census: Immigration in Canada: A Portrait of the Foreign-born Population, 2006 Census: Findings


Immigration in Canada: A Portrait of the Foreign-born Population, 2006 Census: Immigrants in the provinces and territories
Ontario: Province of choice for most newcomers to Canada


Ontario continued to be the province of choice for more than half (52.3%) of the 1.1 million newcomers who arrived in Canada during the past five years. This was down slightly from the previous cohort of recent arrivals when 55.9% of newcomers to Canada who settled in Ontario between 1996 and 2001.

In total, the census enumerated 3,398,700 foreign-born individuals in Ontario. They represented 28.3% of the province's population, the highest proportion of all 10 provinces and the highest in Ontario's history.

Most foreign-born Ontarians lived in the census metropolitan area of Toronto (68.3%). The other Ontario metropolitan areas that were home to at least 2% of the province's foreign-born population were the Ontario part of Ottawa - Gatineau (5.3%), Hamilton (4.9%), Kitchener (3%), London (2.6%) and Windsor (2.2%).

http://www12.statcan.ca/census-recensement/2006/as-sa/97-557/p11-eng.cfm

Let's assume there are 17,500 families of 4.
Considering the majority of condo units being built are small 1B and 1B+D ranging from 500 - 700 SF, i doubt these are the units being desired.

Also, considering the current average price of $500 PSF, are you expecting the new immigrant family, whose income tends to be very low, to be spending $250,000 - $350,000 ?!?!?



The oldest Market Watch on the TREB site (Jan 1996) has historical data using the same average prices that you use in your chart. The report cautions against making historical comparisons because of district changes. Another agent, Randy Emmott, says that the changes were made between 1986 and 1996. Yet another agent, Mark Argentino, writes that TREB has been expanding outward into lower price areas for years. That has the effect of lowering the average/median price.
 
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interested

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No one seems to be talking about the immigration. Approximately 100,000 people immigrate to Ontario every year out of which 80% immigrants settle in GTA. Assuming that these 80% or 80,000 people have family of four that means 20,000 families settling into GTA every year. That means we need about 20,000 more homes each year in GTA to shelter these immigrants. So demand is there. Those people have to live somewhere and that demand will result in increased home prices.

Prices in Toronto are still low compared to some of the major cities in North America. London and Manhattan cities are averaging at $2,000 per square foot and Vancouver is around 1000 - 1200 per square foot. Toronto is still around 500 - 600 per square foot. Therefore Toronto seems to attract investors from around the world.

I have mentioned some of these in my February's newsletter http://sunnybatra.posterous.com/hot-real-estate-market-continues-its-trend-in

Also there isn't much land left in Toronto. Most of these building are being built on parking lots. We are beginning to see developers buying older developments and demolishing them for the purpose of building a condo. Some of the examples would be X2 Condos, One Bloor, Five Condos, Chaz On Charles etc. It reminds me of an old expression, “Have you bought your land yet, we are not making any more!"

If you are buying for the purpose of flipping then you might win some and might loose some similar to stock market. This is not investing; it is called gambling. However if you are buying with the intention of keeping it for lets say 10-15 years or even more you will surely enjoy very good returns.

View attachment 4368

Invest with confidence and stay away from gambling. :)
Regarding immigration: It is true that for the last decade there has been a huge influx of immigration. However, as was pointed out, historical trends do not inherently guarantee future trends. Immigration may shift location, province. Prices rely also on the general state of the economy.

Interestingly, in the paper today, they talk of Toronto breaking into the top 10 (currently in 12th position) for global financial centers. To compare our prices to London and New York, both tied for #1 as financial centers while useful for making us look cheap, may not be a totally fair comparison, at least not yet. Who is to say London and New York won't decline vis a vis todays prices as opposed to us going up. I am not saying this will happen. I am only pointing out that immigration alone is not a basis to hang ones hat on for price increases and that other economic and otherwise factors will play into real estate prices.

"Prices are low compared to some cities in North America". True but this applies to the minority of cities by far. Real estate in Canada is quite a bit more expensive than most of the US, in particular in Vancouver but also Toronto. Note: Chicago which is roughly comparable as a financial center according this article to Toronto has had massive price declines recently. I do not know their immigration numbers but I am just saying prices can come down drastically. New York at least at present is THE financial capital in North America and there is only one of these.

Land shortages: On this note we agree. I have seen in 2007 that at the rate of consumption, vacant Class A land (land in the core worth land value only) had 3 years supply. This may extend beyond 2010 due to the slowdown in 2008/2009 first quarter but afterwards, builders will have to use Class B and C land, land which has structures on it that make it more valuable than land value alone. Hence, at least the land costs will be higher going forward since I believe that in the core most of the land has been owned for a long time and likely will not be sold unless it attracts a good price.

Buying right now even for investing (I am referring to downtown TO condos) presents more downside potential than upside gain I believe. In regards to living for the longer term, that is a different issue and can be justified since it is not to be viewed as a pure investment and the over the long term, will increase, if only on average by the rate of inflation, and if lucky, perhaps more if immigration, increased financial status of Toronto occurs, or other factors to justify a reason for prices to increase by more than inflation.

I will say one thing. I don't know if posting here and talking about Sunny so much helps him get referrals and known. They say there is no such thing as bad publicity, just publicity , and he is certainly getting that.
 

interested

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Re: "running out of land"

You have got to be kidding! There's enough vacant and underused land in Toronto, south of the 401, to house another 10 million people! That's without knocking down a single pre-1970 building!

Actually, Class A land will run out in the core in a matter of a year or 2 barring an almost absolute halt. Remember, all this is is land that is at land value only or with a structure which does not enhance the value beyond land value. I am referring to the downtown core.

Unfortunatly I don't have the report but I recall seeing it in 2007 when I was looking at investing(along with a group of investors) in some land which we partnered with the developer to build condos (which are now under construction). I can tell you that land value is up since we bought (though that may again change if the market "adjusts downward"). I cannot recall who did the land study. May have been Urbanization but don't quote me on that last detail.
 

Sunny Batra

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I will say one thing. I don't know if posting here and talking about Sunny so much helps him get referrals and known. They say there is no such thing as bad publicity, just publicity , and he is certainly getting that.

I am not here to get any publicity of any kind rather I am posting my opinion similar to you. Yes I am realtor but that does not stops me to post my opinoin let it be good or bad regardless of my profession. You can certainly agree or disagree with my opinion and I respect that as I would expect the same from you in return.

All I know is that investing in Real Estate runs in my blood since my family has been investing in Real Estate for the last 30 years. They haven't flipped any property rather they kept it till today (long term investing). They bought it for just few thousands back then and are worth in millions today. In last 30 years market has gone down a few times but good thing with Real Estate is that it goes back up again and Real Estate does not dissappers like few companies on stock market.

A common question I get all the time is,” is it too late to buy? Have prices gone up too much and should I wait for them to fall before I enter the market? I have tracked home prices since 1970 when they were $29,492. I am sure there are people from 1970 still waiting to buy when prices come down! As the population increases, demand causes prices to increase. Over a long period of time, you cannot make a mistake of buying a home. If you want to speculate, buy today and sell tomorrow, that is a risky business. For the long term investor or the home owner who plans to live in the home 5-10 years there is no better investment than real estate.
 

interested

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I am not here to get any publicity of any kind rather I am posting my opinion similar to you. Yes I am realtor but that does not stops me to post my opinoin let it be good or bad regardless of my profession. You can certainly agree or disagree with my opinion and I respect that as I would expect the same from you in return.

All I know is that investing in Real Estate runs in my blood since my family has been investing in Real Estate for the last 30 years. They haven't flipped any property rather they kept it till today (long term investing). They bought it for just few thousands back then and are worth in millions today. In last 30 years market has gone down a few times but good thing with Real Estate is that it goes back up again and Real Estate does not dissappers like few companies on stock market.

A common question I get all the time is,†is it too late to buy? Have prices gone up too much and should I wait for them to fall before I enter the market? I have tracked home prices since 1970 when they were $29,492. I am sure there are people from 1970 still waiting to buy when prices come down! As the population increases, demand causes prices to increase. Over a long period of time, you cannot make a mistake of buying a home. If you want to speculate, buy today and sell tomorrow, that is a risky business. For the long term investor or the home owner who plans to live in the home 5-10 years there is no better investment than real estate.

I did not mean anything bad by commenting about the publicity. It was just an observation. I am sorry if you took some offence. I was simply expressing an observation. I believe though from your posts you would agree you are very bullish to the point of almost expounding there is never a bad time to buy real estate which I am not sure I totally agree. Now I believe is just such a time (speaking investment real estate, not home ownership). Just my opinion. I will be right, wrong or in between.:D

I agree with everything you have said about long term and in fact more fortunes (90%) of the wealth in the world has historically been made in real estate. However, I believe people may disagree with your comment that there is no better investment than real estate (though I like you like realestate for the long term as it does not disappear like stocks/bonds can). However, I believe from what I have read in the past if you look at indexes eg. Dow (and I have not done this but I am sure others have or can comment), stocks have outperformed real estate in the past 40 years though with the last correction, that may no longer be the case but I am quite sure was the case until the 2008 "correction" (read massive devaluation which has recovered to a degree).

I believe you will have to appreciate however that we have just come off the greatest 30 year bond period as well with interest rates dropping from 1981 to present. I am sure bond holders too made as much as real estate owners provided they did not land on land mines (companies that disappeared). Also, this massive decrease in interest rates significantly contributed to the inflation in property values and one could argue with the expected period of rising rates (they can't go down more and can only hover at these levels for so long or we will have deflation eventually) that real estate will be adversly affected.

My only thought Sunny is that in fact one may do better the next 2-4 years holding cash returning nothing or Triple A bonds, possibly gold because these will not decrease whereas in the short term frame and I emphasize short term, real estate I believe will go down and not up. I think one will be able to invest in real estate in the future but now is not the time in my view.

That said, the trick will be to figure out when to get out of the cash and back into the real estate or other investments. Not an easy task. I am not saying "timing the market" because that has been shown not to work. I am just saying making some educated guesses as to what to do. One can't hope to hit the bottom or the top, only hope to buy on the way up and sell on the way down. One can if they are priviledged and blessed as your family sounds it has been hold onto all of its real estate and never sell but the reality is most of the population does not have this luxury.

With 30+ years for your family in real estate clearly you have alot of experience, however, like they say in mutual funds (which are lousy investments in my opinion though I own some), "Past performance is no guarantee of future earnings"
 

luxome

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so is there any bad investments in real estate in the downtown core? because a lot of the attention is focused on buying buying buying generalizing that buying anywhere in the downtown core will generate a "good return". So what are there even any bad investments in the downtown core?

Because a good investment, you should be able to calculate the Rate of Return. If you can't then you are just speculating and a lot of assumptions.

I'm not trying to argue against anything, or try to offend anyone, but it just really annoys me to hear from so many real estate agents saying "buy buy buy, ALL real estate prices will go up! and you will get a GOOD return"....

Even if ALL real estate in the downtown core do go up...i would not want to tie up a lot of cash to make so little, relative speaking. Especially with pre-constructions nowadays requiring 20% down within ONE year! Why not just buy an existing building that just built 2 years ago for less psf and have a tenant build up your equity right away if you are going to put 20% down in ONE year!

Not feasible, IMHO. But i'm just a humble investor. That's all.

Sorry, just my rant about 100s of realtors I've encountered at "VIP events" saying the same thing...
 

interested

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so is there any bad investments in real estate in the downtown core? because a lot of the attention is focused on buying buying buying generalizing that buying anywhere in the downtown core will generate a "good return". So what are there even any bad investments in the downtown core?

Because a good investment, you should be able to calculate the Rate of Return. If you can't then you are just speculating and a lot of assumptions.

I'm not trying to argue against anything, or try to offend anyone, but it just really annoys me to hear from so many real estate agents saying "buy buy buy, ALL real estate prices will go up! and you will get a GOOD return"....

Even if ALL real estate in the downtown core do go up...i would not want to tie up a lot of cash to make so little, relative speaking. Especially with pre-constructions nowadays requiring 20% down within ONE year! Why not just buy an existing building that just built 2 years ago for less psf and have a tenant build up your equity right away if you are going to put 20% down in ONE year!

Not feasible, IMHO. But i'm just a humble investor. That's all.

Sorry, just my rant about 100s of realtors I've encountered at "VIP events" saying the same thing...

first let me preface: I am not a realtor.

Of course there are bad investments in downtown as in anywhere. Until now, a hot market has meant that everything (even poor quality offerings sell/rent.) that will now change. Poor properties will fetch less as people have choice and good properties will sell/rent for relatively more. Until now, sellers have been able to hold out for top dollar even on poor stuff. the discrimination will now start to show as less desirable properties will just sit.

Unfortunately it is difficult to expect a realtor whose livelihood depends on sales to be 100% forthright and say this is a bad time to buy. Some, like Ric on this site, has said that people should do the math and it frankly in my view does not work on a mid level condo at $600/sq. ft as an investment. I expect it will come down.

Timing the market is difficult. the best I think one can hope to do is buy closer to a bottom and sell near a top. Trying to land exactly is almost impossible. My experience with alot of realtors is that they are positive about the market and sometimes I think so engulfed in it that they don't see the change happening as clearly as someone on the outside looking in objectively.
 

interested

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Even if ALL real estate in the downtown core do go up...i would not want to tie up a lot of cash to make so little, relative speaking. Especially with pre-constructions nowadays requiring 20% down within ONE year! Why not just buy an existing building that just built 2 years ago for less psf and have a tenant build up your equity right away if you are going to put 20% down in ONE year!

Not feasible, IMHO. But i'm just a humble investor. That's all.

...

One additional point. As an investor, you appreciate that real estate is a highly leveraged investment, long term asset financed with short term (say 5 year or variable mortgages). Hence, the past few years it has been a wonderful investment. However, if it goes the other way, leveraging very quickly wipes out your hard earned equity.
 

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FIVE Condos' sales office opened to the public this past weekend, and the project is now two thirds sold.

Large numbers attended the public opening:




Gary Switzer, President and CEO of Mod Developments at Barbara Lawlor, President of Baker Real Estate (standing) review the brochure with purchaser David Gomez and Tina Amato, Vice President of Baker Real Estate.




The scale model shows the impressive design of FIVE – a sensitive blend of the old and new that is certain to become a landmark:

 

Sunny Batra

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One additional point. As an investor, you appreciate that real estate is a highly leveraged investment, long term asset financed with short term (say 5 year or variable mortgages). Hence, the past few years it has been a wonderful investment. However, if it goes the other way, leveraging very quickly wipes out your hard earned equity.

I completely agree with you.
 

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