Dion's popularity sinks even lower

[Brandon716]

There was no way Harper was going to win the last election. The RCMP is as responsible for the election of Mr. Harper's government as anyone.

Dion isn't as weak as anyone thinks, he just needs to go with a spring election.

 

[King of Kensington]

http://www.hilltimes.com/html/index.php?display=story&full_path=2008/april/7/dion_party_message/&c=2

"They [Liberal Party leadership] just don't know what they're doing, that's the perception. I'm pretty sure, they think they know what they're doing and I'm pretty sure they've a strategy they have worked out for themselves. But outside of Ottawa, people are saying, 'What the hell is going on?' " said one senior Liberal who spoke to The Hill Times on condition of anonymity last week.

"They've run away from every battle saying, 'I don't like this, but I'm not going to oppose it.' That creates a perception problem just not only for the rank and file Liberals but also for the general public also. I see them as weak, others see them as weak, it might be good strategy, maybe a short-term strategy that has long-term negative consequences. They have left the field open to the Conservatives on a whole range of issues. How can you say, 'We've been opposed to what the Conservatives have been doing when you haven't voted against the Conservatives.' How do you go into an election saying that?"

Couldn't have put it better myself.

 

[afransen]

That would be rather draconian, non?

See, I resisted making that joke.

To answer the question, at this point it is probably too late to try and replace Dion. They have to go through an election defeat first, most likely.

 

[JasonParis]

If he were replaced before an election, would that make him a historical anomaly? Or has that happened before?

 

[afransen]

It's just a bad idea. That would require a leadership convention, which takes many months. The other parties would capitalize on Liberal weakness and cause an election while the Liberals are in disarray.

To be frank, there is no saviour out there who, freshly installed, would be any stronger than Dion is right now.

 

[Brandon716]

I fully believe Dion should just make it a go, fight hard, run a competent and fair campaign and just see if he can win this spring or summer. If he can't do so, the Liberals could do some soul searching and have another convention in the fall. Either way something needs to be done. Sitting around and doing nothing isn't something any political party can do for long. Who knows, if Dion shows some more backbone and just forges forward with SOME plan, he might gain more respect across all Liberals aisles even if he loses a close campaign. There may not need to be another convention, unless Harper ends up with some freakish majority government out of nowhere. I highly doubt that scenario could happen, but whatever...

Either way, now is the time for action. We've had more than 2 years of the Harper minority government and there is never a fantastic time to have an election.

In my opinion, with all the Harper government problems (completely pissing off Ontario as a whole, scandal from Cadman to Harper suing and acting like a baby) the government could easily be beaten. The pollsters and pundits don't want to believe it, but its true. Harper can be defeated.

 

[Brandon716]

BTW, a Liberal campaign slogan could easily become a message of how the Conservatives have become competent at incompetence.

If I were a Liberal team member, I'd do the following:

*Highlight the hypocrisy of WHY the Conservatives gained power in the first place. The Conservatives blamed the Liberals for being out of touch for all their "many scandals" as they put it. Sponsorship and the RCMP investigation that didn't reveal anything in Winter 2006, suspiciously released weeks before an election. Right now is the PRIME TIME for talking about Cadman and positioning Harper as a weak leader who cries to get things done (suing the Liberal party for name calling is weak leadership, not real leadership). Makes Harper look like the paranoid pansy that he is.

*Focus on the bad policy decisions. Harper's government has spent more time focused on issues that don't help Canadians. Simply highlight what has happened: they killed the national child care program and gave people pocket change, they brought gay marriage up as they promised and wasted precious Parliamentary time on an issue that was already finished by the previous government (using this with the new tape of Tom Lukiwski, Conservative MP with a cabinet position, bashing gays can remind people where Conservatives stand, and how out of touch it is with Canada's Charter of Rights and Freedoms), showing how the Conservatives have given people pocket change tax cuts in the form of a miniscule 1% GST break while allowing the federal surplus to basically dwindle to a near-deficit, and forecasted deficits if it keeps up.

Policy-wise, the Conservatives have done nothing since the Paul Martin health care accord to help fund health services. His inaction is hurting Canadians. Conservatives can easily be placed as out of touch, not a party representative of Canadian values.

HELLO. The makings of a great Liberal comeback are all there.

Someone please get Dion's marketing and election team together. I'd hate to see this golden opportunity wasted.

Cadman
Lukiwski
Harper suing and crying like a baby
..the list goes on and on of Conservative failure.


The Dion campaign could easily advertise "Conservative: Out of Touch, Out of Mind." The Conservatives kept their promise alright: close to deficit, anti-gay, anti-diversity, pro-corruption, and outright lame. What LEADER sues when someone calls you a name? Harper is the ultimate paranoid Conservative pansy.

 

[billonlogan]

let me repeat again....

Liberals avoid election over immigration reforms

April 09, 2008
Alexander Panetta
THE CANADIAN PRESS

OTTAWA–The federal Liberals were taunted and ridiculed by opponents as they avoided triggering an election over immigration reforms they have spent weeks denouncing in the most scathing terms.

Their opponents in government and on the other opposition benches poured scorn on the party as it allowed the Tory government to survive yet another a confidence vote in the House of Commons.

The Liberals warn that there will be other occasions to defeat the immigration reforms this spring, and continue to describe the changes as mean-spirited, anti-immigrant, short-sighted, and as an affront to Canadian values.

But when they raised the issue again as the centrepiece of their question period attacks Wednesday, they drew mockery from Prime Minister Stephen Harper.

"I look forward to seeing whether the Leader of the Opposition believes his own rhetoric on this," the prime minister replied when Stéphane Dion condemned the measures. (continue reading)

Enough said

 

[King of Kensington]

Harper can be defeated.

Absolutely true. Harper seems to be stuck around the 36% he got in the last election, and Canadians seem very wary to give him a majority.

That being said, the Liberals have to offer some sort of alternative, and effectively hit at the government. Someone like Rae at the helm may have been able to do it effectively. But the current Dion strategy of what seems to be let's wait until the inevitable time that people turn against Harper and then we can slip back into power. A very arrogant assumption for an arrogant party that seems to think that as the "natural governing party" they don't have to offer anything.

Also, the Liberal strategy of mock outrage at the Harper government and then voting for practically everything Harper wants is a big problem. We keep hearing how terrible this government is from the Libs, but then they keep propping it up.

 

[Brandon716]

Speaking on Immigration, I have a bone to pick.

My work permit was rejected last summer for no real plausible reason just because of some immigration officer's personal discretion. I do NOT approve of giving immigration officers more power to just do what they want. There needs to be established rules that if you qualify, you can get into Canada. I have a college diploma (and wish to finish a bachelors university degree in Ontario someday, based on my current 80 credit hours already earned), I have 4 years of work experience in technical support and call centre servicing, I very much speak native English and have no problems settling in Canada. Yet MY application was denied?? Give me a break... The rules should have allowed me to come in no problem, but some immigration officer made the voluntary decision not to.

Conservatives cannot bash Liberals too much on this issue. Immigration affects me greatly because I've wanted to live in Canada (legally) for many years now, and several applications (and hundreds of dollars) later I'm up a creek without a paddle in 2008.

The "problem" with the Canadian immigration system is that Canada has gotten insanely popular in the world over the past 10-15 years. When the Liberals had power 10 years ago, the average wait time in the late 1990's for a full permanent resident application to go from submission to decision was 3-4 months. Today, in AMERICA, if you submit your application at the only office that accepts permanent resident applications in Buffalo, it takes an AVERAGE wait time of 24 months. Yes, that's average, many take longer.

In other nations, like India, it can take 48-70 months for applications just to be considered in the consulate offices there.

You aren't guaranteed an answer of yes, and barely 50% of applications even make it.

The reason for this increase isn't because Liberals failed, it is because the same existing immigration staff has seen an upswell in Canadian interest as more people are considering Canada as opposed to other places. The United States receives the vast majority of its current immigration from Mexico and Latin America. Canada has become the favorite for everyone else in North America.

The answer isn't to give the immigration office the power to reject at will, its to hire about 4x the staff and grow the consular offices sufficiently.

People who submit for residency are paying for it, it can be done efficiently. I've spent my hundreds on wasted applications at this point.

What the Harper government proposes is absurdity. It supposedly would help people applying based on economic or work incentives, but it is highly opinion based instead of rule based.

I don't like it when an immigration officer denies my application because he just decided he/she personally doesn't think I fit the bill.

That's just not the way Canada should be settling new immigrants.

 

[Brandon716]

BTW, only a few thousand Americans may have moved north legally last year, but if only 2 or 3 thousand people move north, little do you know that nearly 24,000 people applied to move to Canada from the US within a 12 month period.

There is little reason for Canada to be only accepting 2-3 thousand US immigrants when tens of thousands are applying. No one wants to be an illegal immigrant, and I'm not moving until I'm completely legal.

I'm talking about permanent residency applications, not temporary work permits that number probably in the hundred thousands for all I know.

 

[Brandon716]

Here are the official numbers for those interested:

http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/information/times/international/02a-skilled-fed.asp

The Buffalo office is the only office in the US that accepts permanent residency applications. All other consular offices deal with temporary permits, including most border crossings that tend to be able to offer work permits within 24-48 hours (theoretically speaking).

Some samples..

If you want to immigrate to Canada via the office in Beijing if you are a Chinese resident, expect only 30% of the applications to be processed by 53 months. YEARS just for 30% of applications to only be considered.

In jolly old England, but have a desire to get to Canada? Well if you're an English person who wants to settle in your brother to the west, expect only 30% of applications in London, England to be processed by the 31st month after submission. Again, takes years just to be considered....

Looks like times have gotten better at Buffalo. If you submit at Buffalo as an American 50% of cases are completed within 19 months... Not bad relative to the rest of the world. Still about 4x the time it should reasonably take though.


And its not like you have a choice, people who are citizens of the UK have no choice, they must submit in London. If they apply in Buffalo its automatically denied before they accept the application.

So its not like you can choose which consulate office to use, not that I'm against that policy, but Canada needs more staff worldwide. Canada is just too popular these days.

 

[unimaginative2]

Wow, Brandon. I couldn't agree more. If we just accepted well-educated Americans who want to move up here, many for social and political reasons, all of our labour market problems could be solved. Same with immigrants from all over the world. We used to rant and rave about the brain drain, but here we are throwing up every barrier in sight against a northward brain drain of Americans to Canada.

The biggest tragedy is that the very people that we desperately want and need (the well-educated, skilled, or wealthy) are the people who are least likely to bother if they are forced to wait years for their applications to be processed.

 

[Brandon716]

Thanks, not much you can do about the immigration system in the immediate, but its just the way things are!

Back to the election, another theme Liberals need to tap into is the heated Ontario commentary.

This is something that particularly Atlantic Canadians can relate to. The Conservative government has had its moments in the past with Atlantic Canada and at present with Ontario. The Liberal team could easily get some video and audio clips together showing how regional the Conservatives are and make some great advertising that hits home.

The Conservative party has a habit of putting down entire regions of Canada at a time. Doesn't matter if they discounted Atlantic Canada a year ago, or they openly lash against Ontario - the economic engine of the nation - the Conservatives have consistently shown they are strongly against significant portions of the Canadian public.

These are themes, not a singular incident. It is very easy to paint the Conservatives as a bunch of paranoid, hate filled, revenge artists. I mean they are what they are.

Someone just needs to get a competent marketing team over to Liberal headquarters and get this show on the road.

I don't know if these kinds of advertisements could help in Quebec, but showing the Conservative party members lashing out at significant regions of Canada could theoretically show the hypocrisy to the Conservatives in a region they are betting on to pull off any kind of win.

If there's one thing I've learned in politics, its not to be afraid of running in areas that you aren't typically considered strong in. If the party shows some effort, it'll pay off more than anyone could anticipate.

It'd leave Chantal Hebert's mouth dropping when she has to opine the Liberal win.

If I were doing a storyboard for upcoming Liberal advertising, I would start with an ad where Conservatives - caught on tape - were bashing Atlantic Canada. Then add in the Ontario bashing they've done. Then I would end the advertisement with a phrase that goes something like exactly what part of Canada is there left for the Conservatives to care about when they hate so much of Canada.

Obviously the wording would have to be focus group tested and find the most politically correct way of saying it, but the Conservatives are like a stick house built on water. It could fall easily with just a little effort put against it.

BUT, it needs to be focus group tested. Those horrible Liberal ads where Harper was demonized in the last election were a total flub. Someone needs some marketing skill over at Liberal HQ's.

Instead of using the word hate, maybe it could be phrased "Since Harper's conservatives love so little of Canada, what part of Canada do they actually love?"

That would have a nice ring to it. And with the comments caught on tape letting the Conservatives speak for themselves, it would be a home run advertisement.

 

[unimaginative2]

The problem is that every time the Liberals go "negative," the media pounces on them. When the Conservatives do it, they're praised for their tactical acumen.

If there's one thing I've learned in politics, its not to be afraid of running in areas that you aren't typically considered strong in. If the party shows some effort, it'll pay off more than anyone could anticipate.

Totally agree! My number one target is Fort McMurray. It seems crazy, but when you think about it, it's not unreasonable at all. The area has a profound and growing concern with the pace of development and its environmental impact. The Mayor is a Liberal and City Council has voted to halt all new oil sands projects -- ignored by the province, of course. Plus, the incumbent is by all accounts a bit of a dolt. Moreover, the town is filled with immigrants from other provinces, especially Atlantic Canada, who are likely accustomed to voting Liberal. It also has a large First Nations population. With great turnout among First Nations, and enough support from new residents, it's swingable. What a symbol it would be! At the very least, it'll keep the Tories on their toes in their bastion.

The biggest problem is that the Liberals tend to have very weak riding outreach from central campaign. Most ridings, outside the downtowns of the big cities, are pretty much on their own when running their campaigns. They get packages of literature shipped in now and then, and that's pretty much it. Suburban and mid-size city ridings on the knife's edge of a swing are so starved for workers that they can barely canvass. Meanwhile, a handful of downtown Toronto ridings where they Liberals are pretty much guararanteed to win (and where their only competition is the NDP anyway) have more people than they know what to do with. Last election, a swing of a dozen seats would have produced a Liberal government. I guarantee that more energetic campaigns in places like Essex County, Barrie, and Waterloo Region could have changed more than enough results.