Dion's popularity sinks even lower

[unimaginative2]

I agree - Justin Trudeau comes across as a total flake to me! Whatever one thinks of his father, by the time he was Justin's age he was one of Quebec's leading intellectuals and a prominent political and trade union activist. Justin did a little stint at some private school on the West Coast, did an MA in geography...and now we're supposed to think he's like the Second Coming of the Christ!

He was Gerard Kennedy's most prominent supporter...and Gerard's greatest claim to fame at this point is sticking the Liberals with Dion!

That, along with being a successful leader of Ontario's most challenging ministry, building up several food banks, etc. He was also the only leadership contender to publicly oppose the "nation" resolution. Remember that ploy that could have far reaching consequences that gave Harper a two day spike in the polls?

Y'know, for all the talk about Harper's experience and qualifications, basically all he's ever done in his life is work for a few right-wing lobby organizations. He's a self-proclaimed academic who never even got his PhD. Until he became Prime Minister, he hadn't run anything bigger than the National Citizens Coalition.

I think Kennedy's lucked out pretty badly with the long wait for an election. He's lucky that he has a home riding to run in, with a strong local base and machine. He's obviously not going to face the difficulties that, say, Ignatieff faced when he parachuted into Etobicoke. On the other hand, Rae, Findlay, and Ignatieff are all in the house, and Kennedy's on the sidelines waiting for an election. It's not helping his already-low profile. It's yet another reason why Dion's should have an election ASAP: his closest ally in the leadership isn't in the House.

Out of curiosity, have you ever met Justin Trudeau or at least heard him speak?

Dion's unpopular among many Francophone voters in Quebec because he has a history of being a fierce and uncompromising federalist who is quite hostile to nationalist concerns.

 

[Brandon716]

Dion's unpopular among many Francophone voters in Quebec because he has a history of being a fierce and uncompromising federalist who is quite hostile to nationalist concerns.

LOL, one of the reasons I actually like Dion.

Quebec is a wonderful, beautiful province and should feel welcome within a strong, united, multi-ethnic and multi-cultural Canada. Dion should never apologize for having such beliefs.

 

[King of Kensington]

That, along with being a successful leader of Ontario's most challenging ministry, building up several food banks, etc. He was also the only leadership contender to publicly oppose the "nation" resolution. Remember that ploy that could have far reaching consequences that gave Harper a two day spike in the polls?

Y'know, for all the talk about Harper's experience and qualifications, basically all he's ever done in his life is work for a few right-wing lobby organizations. He's a self-proclaimed academic who never even got his PhD. Until he became Prime Minister, he hadn't run anything bigger than the National Citizens Coalition.

I think Kennedy's lucked out pretty badly with the long wait for an election. He's lucky that he has a home riding to run in, with a strong local base and machine. He's obviously not going to face the difficulties that, say, Ignatieff faced when he parachuted into Etobicoke. On the other hand, Rae, Findlay, and Ignatieff are all in the house, and Kennedy's on the sidelines waiting for an election. It's not helping his already-low profile. It's yet another reason why Dion's should have an election ASAP: his closest ally in the leadership isn't in the House.

Out of curiosity, have you ever met Justin Trudeau or at least heard him speak?

Dion's unpopular among many Francophone voters in Quebec because he has a history of being a fierce and uncompromising federalist who is quite hostile to nationalist concerns.

Yup, the longer Kennedy's out, the worse for his chances in P-HP. Peggy Nash is an excellent MP and by the time an election rolls around (in 2009 most likely) her incumbency will be even more solidified. Meanwhile Kennedy hasn't been on the ballot since 2003 and since then the NDP has won it federally and twice provincially (and Cheri DiNovo actually increased her margin of victory from the byelection). I'm not saying it's impossible for Kennedy to take it - but I do think his supposed inevitability has diminished. Thing is Alan Tonks - who is loathed by a lot of card-carrying Liberals - probably could have been pressured to step aside to make room for Kennedy in York South-Weston.

As for Quebec, I think what's happening is a breakdown of the federalist-sovereigntist cleavage, as well as a repudiation of the Libs because of the sponsorship scandal. In the Chretien and Martin years, it was enough to say "I'm a federalist ergo I vote Liberal." That is no longer the case. The NDP has captured much of the social democratic urban Bloc vote as well as left-Liberals (Outremont), while the Conservatives seem to have taken the ADQ vote that has been moving away from the Bloc and PQ.

 

[cacruden]

Dion should take the first opportunity to trigger an election.... If he wins, then he the opposition to him within the party will quiet... if he loses.... a replacement will be found....

 

[unimaginative2]

Yup, the longer Kennedy's out, the worse for his chances in P-HP. Peggy Nash is an excellent MP and by the time an election rolls around (in 2009 most likely) her incumbency will be even more solidified. Meanwhile Kennedy hasn't been on the ballot since 2003 and since then the NDP has won it federally and twice provincially (and Cheri DiNovo actually increased her margin of victory from the byelection). I'm not saying it's impossible for Kennedy to take it - but I do think his supposed inevitability has diminished.

Hahaha. Now there's some wishful thinking for ya.

Thing is Alan Tonks - who is loathed by a lot of card-carrying Liberals - probably could have been pressured to step aside to make room for Kennedy in York South-Weston.

Kennedy has a huge base and machine in P-HP, and he'll take back a lost seat. I don't know why he'd run anywhere else.

I don't know too many actual Liberals who have a strong opinion about Alan Tonks either way. I know a lot of NDPers who don't like him, probably because he holds one of the ridings they consider "rightfully" theirs.

As for Quebec, I think what's happening is a breakdown of the federalist-sovereigntist cleavage, as well as a repudiation of the Libs because of the sponsorship scandal. In the Chretien and Martin years, it was enough to say "I'm a federalist ergo I vote Liberal." That is no longer the case. The NDP has captured much of the social democratic urban Bloc vote as well as left-Liberals (Outremont), while the Conservatives seem to have taken the ADQ vote that has been moving away from the Bloc and PQ.

Yeah, that's what the pundits have been saying. Outremont was a fluke, and there's no chance of the NDP taking any other seats. That being said, their increased support is a great thing since it comes at the expense of the Bloc. It could mean several more Liberal seats in Montreal where the Tories aren't a factor. Liberal support in Quebec has reached its floor, so any votes bled away from the Bloc will mean lost seats for them.

Oh, and so I'm right to conclude that you've never met Justin Trudeau or heard him speak?

 

[JasonParis]

My card-carrying Dipper parents saw Justin speak in Hamilton on the weekend and were very impressed.

 

[jade_lee]

Why force an election when the liberal party is not ready for one? As far as Dion not being the best leader of choice, I don't believe that just because the conservatives tell me that and nor should others. Dion is a bright guy and has a track record to illustrate this ie his career choices. The election is certainly coming soon and it'a all about how we vote. As far as I am concerned Harper lost me when he stated that bombing Lebanon was a "measured response"! His party continues to think that $100 per month to parents solves daycare and a2% drop in the gst gives us more purchasing power.........that is just plain nutz and for those of you who think these things make economic sense.......goodluck finding a daycare space and I hope that 2% reduction helps you because it certainly doesn't make that much of a difference in my life.

 

[King of Kensington]

Even more delusional is the idea that Gerard Kennedy is a shoo-in for Parkdale-High Park.

Tonks is hated by a lot of Liberals (and NDPers) because he is a rightwing social conservative with a voting record like Tom Wappel and a grade-Z MP. The NDP hasn't held York South federally since David Lewis represented it under very different boundaries (i.e. it didn't include Weston or North York but included Forest Hill). If they lost York South-Weston under Dion I would be shocked.

I've seen Justin Trudeau speak. He wasn't impressive to me. Sacha is far more impressive I think.

 

[Observer Walt]

I agree - Justin Trudeau comes across as a total flake to me! Whatever one thinks of his father, by the time he was Justin's age he was one of Quebec's leading intellectuals and a prominent political and trade union activist. Justin did a little stint at some private school on the West Coast, did an MA in geography...and now we're supposed to think he's like the Second Coming of the Christ!

He was Gerard Kennedy's most prominent supporter...and Gerard's greatest claim to fame at this point is sticking the Liberals with Dion!

In all fairness to Justin Trudeau, he's never said anything, as far as I know, about leading. He doesn't come across as arrogant, and he walked the streets in Laurier to round up support to be nominated, against a strong local opponent. He's just trying to get elected as an MP, which I think he probably will. What may come after that, who knows? He can't help who his father was, after all.

The next Liberal leader will most likely be Ignatieff, who has a strong base in Quebec. He drew more support in Quebec than Dion. Being based in Toronto won't hurt him, either.

 

[unimaginative2]

Absolutely, Observer Walt. His riding's Papineau, actually, but your point is very valid. He worked hard for that riding, and has been working hard for the party.

Even more delusional is the idea that Gerard Kennedy is a shoo-in for Parkdale-High Park.

Haha. Keep thinking that. Did you notice how the NDP did in Toronto Centre? Doesn't seem to bode too well, especially considering how popular Kennedy is. That's right, he's popular as much as NDPers might not like it.

Tonks is hated by a lot of Liberals (and NDPers) because he is a rightwing social conservative with a voting record like Tom Wappel and a grade-Z MP. The NDP hasn't held York South federally since David Lewis represented it under very different boundaries (i.e. it didn't include Weston or North York but included Forest Hill). If they lost York South-Weston under Dion I would be shocked.

I don't know what Liberals you talk to, but I've never heard anyone express an opinion about Tonks one way or another, other than the endless speculation that he's going to retire. I really think that he's going to hang on for five more elections with people every time talking about this is definitely his last go!

I've seen Justin Trudeau speak. He wasn't impressive to me. Sacha is far more impressive I think.

You're in the minority, but I have a feeling you may have gone into it with a few preconceived notions. Sacha is a very impressive, though very different, guy. He's a less classic politician than Justin. Their speaking styles couldn't be more different, either.'

I really think Ignatieff made a mistake by settling down in Toronto. Sure, the ridings are safe, but since he hadn't lived in Canada for a long time anyway, he pretty much could've gone anywhere. Vancouver might have been an excellent choice, or even Montreal.

 

[billonlogan]

Dion should take the first opportunity to trigger an election.... If he wins, then he the opposition to him within the party will quiet... if he loses.... a replacement will be found....

With a disloyal party, apathetic voters and a famous dog, Liberal leader Stéphane Dion seems like a match for, hmmm – Canada's longest-serving PM?

March 30, 2008
Jack MacLeod
Special to the Star

Jack McLeod is an emeritus professor, political science, University of Toronto. His novel Uproar will be published this fall by The Porcupine's Quill.


Who does Stéphane Dion remind you of? Oddly enough, he reminds me of Canada's most successful politician of the 20th century, our longest serving prime minister, Mackenzie King.

Oh, I know, it is presently fashionable to point out Dion's apparent shortcomings. Mackenzie King, through most of the 1920s, even after he became prime minister, also heard repeated demands that he be replaced. But to say that Dion is a liability to his party's electoral prospects is wrong and short-sighted.

The question should be: Compared to what? If the Liberal leader lacks dazzling charisma, so too does Harper, who has all the charm and warmth of a forensic accountant. I find Dion's obvious depth of character and diffident manner engaging. (read on)



Those academics sure stick up for each other.

 

[King of Kensington]

Did you notice how the NDP did in Toronto Centre? .

Uh, TC is a supersafe Liberal riding and Rae was the only strong candidate in that race. P-HP has an NDP incumbent.

 

[CDL.TO]

As of today Stephen Harper has had as long of a term as Prime Minister as Paul Martin did.

 

[adma]

I assume the main problem with Gerard Kennedy in PHP is that the "take out the NDP" optics are a little too brazenly bald for comfort--and big deal if he represented this turf provincially.

As far as York South-Weston goes: in its favour is that it covers more of the turf Kennedy held when first by-elected to Queen's Park in 1996. (Did I hear somewhere that he lives/lived in Weston? I could be mistaken, though.) And I agree that Tonks just blares out as the sort of incumbent who begs retiring-off on behalf of a star like Kennedy. In any event, Kennedy would have more of a preexisting political history in YSW than Bob Rae in Toronto Centre or Martha Two-Names in Willowdale...

 

[Observer Walt]

His riding's Papineau, actually

You're right, unimaginative, my mind was obviously wandering.

With regards to comments about Justin Trudeau's speaking style, I have not heard or seen him in person, but he comes across well on TV. Given both his family background and his experience as a teacher, you'd expect him to be articulate. I'd be quite surprised if he doesn't win his seat, and by a good margin, in the next election.