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Despite what Ford says The Streetcar in Toronto is here to stay.

By the time he even brings his transit plan to council for debate, I bet Eglinton will be under construction. At most, it might get a few tweaks here and there - perhaps an upgrade to full subway, or even have the tunneled portion extended both west and east into Scarborough and Etobicoke (he might even be able to claim he brought a subway to his ward).

Upgrading Eglinton to full subway would not be a 'tweak' given the significant changes to completely grade-separate the majority of the line that is not tunneled. Unless you want to only build the tunneled portion and cancel bringing higher order transit to a large chunk of Eglinton (passing through several wards). That's not even touching the major extra costs to build whatever transfer terminals you'd need between the buses to your new subway.
 
I think it's important to remember just how much of a fringe position Ford's view on the legacy streetcars is. The order for the new Bombardier vehicles passed 36-6, and that poll John Tory and co commissioned on city issues had 92 percent support for keeping the network. That's before we get into how insane and expensive it would be to try to remove it. Now, Ford is the mayor, and fringe or not his views carry some weight. But this one is so ridiculously impractical--and likely to create what Kelly Grant predicted would be 'civil war' in Council--that it will be quietly dropped, I am pretty sure. Off the top of my head I can think of about 22 councillors who would never vote in favor of streetcar removal, and thetas without even getting into the mushy middle.

As for TC, clearly McGuinty and Ford will come to some compromise that allows both to claim victory. In the long run, that might actually be better for the city than leaving TC in place under a mayor who doesn't want it. Having a Ford stamp of approval on whatever emerges from the discussions with McGuinty will make those plans much harder for Hudak to kill, should he be elected.
 
I'm honestly not very worried about Eglinton getting cancelled at this point. It's in the advanced design and engineering phase, and TBM's are on the way, as has already been mentioned. Ford doesn't get sworn in until December, and his top priorities are the Vehicle Registration tax and finding efficiencies in the budget. By the time he even brings his transit plan to council for debate, I bet Eglinton will be under construction. At most, it might get a few tweaks here and there - perhaps an upgrade to full subway, or even have the tunneled portion extended both west and east into Scarborough and Etobicoke (he might even be able to claim he brought a subway to his ward).

As much as I'd like to see Sheppard East turned into a subway, I highly doubt that will happen as construction on the LRT is already underway.

Finch West might be at risk however, though I hope it gets through unscathed.

Obviously there's a good chance that all of the non-funded TC lines will be cancelled outright, though some of them might need a re-think anyway (Don Mills should be part of a DRL subway, for example, instead of an LRT line).

And lastly, I don't think he'll touch the legacy streetcar network. The ridership is simply way too high, and the new streetcars have been ordered. He would face way too much resistance if he attempted this.

Rob Ford's old ward (Ward 2) is south of the Finch West LRT and north of the Eglinton Crosstown LRT. The only brush his old ward would have had with any LRT would have been in the extreme southwest end of Ward 2, where the Eglinton LRT would have gone up Silver Dart Drive on its way up to YYZ.

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Just by looking at his old ward, you can see that it is mostly highways anyways.
 
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As much as I'd like to see Sheppard East turned into a subway, I highly doubt that will happen as construction on the LRT is already underway.

In my view, completing SELRT is the best value for money at this point. It will be an improvement, however modest, for Sheppard East, and the carhouse can support a few other LRT lines in the east in addition to Sheppard.

However, Mr. Ford's view on this matter might be quite different.
 
FYI: Analysis of the Eglinton LRT design

By Karl Junkin: very interesting analysis of the Eglinton LRT design

http://stevemunro.ca/?p=4537&cpage=1#comment-47561

In short:
- Several technical parameters of the planned Eglinton LRT tunnel are not compatible with HRT
- With the current design, the top capacity is 13,000

To my understanding, Karl's preference is to build LRT at present, but modify the tunnel design to make it more suitable for future HRT conversion.
 
See, they're actually trying to prevent subways from being built in Toronto.

Someone should send Giambrone, Miller and Munro to the gallows for outright lying to the taxpayer about a subway compatible LRT tunnel.
 
By Karl Junkin: very interesting analysis of the Eglinton LRT design

http://stevemunro.ca/?p=4537&cpage=1#comment-47561

In short:
- Several technical parameters of the planned Eglinton LRT tunnel are not compatible with HRT
- With the current design, the top capacity is 13,000

To my understanding, Karl's preference is to build LRT at present, but modify the tunnel design to make it more suitable for future HRT conversion.

If this is true, I'll have to withdraw my support for the Eglinton LRT.
 
I think Karl's post bears repeating, so I will post it here as well.

Adam said:
The LRT tunnel is much larger than the subway tunnel due to OCS and I am willing to bet that the underground portion will cost just as much as subway if not more.

I wouldn’t say “much†larger; the difference in diameter is less than 1 metre (5.2m for subway (5.4m if it’s a curvy alignment like TYSSE), and 6m for LRT). Yes, it is absolutely true that the LRT will incur more spoil costs and more concrete for lining the tunnels, but remember that there are some additional requirements for subways that counter-balance the savings against LRT in spoil and concrete. Subways require longer X-overs, longer pockets, and bigger station boxes (although the station box difference is marginal given the huge maintenance/service areas being put in to the Eglinton LRT stations, hugely disproportionate compared to subway stations as far as I can tell; they must go well beyond ventilation requirements for their size). I think the cost difference is pretty small, but I’d put subway at a slight notch higher in cost than underground LRT.

James Bow said:
Between Black Creek and Brentcliffe, we are building a subway. Plain and simple. Yes, it’s being operated by LRT vehicles, but it is in every way, shape and form, a subway. It’s underground, like a subway. Using three-car LRT trains at frequent intervals, it will have a higher capacity than the current Sheppard subway and likely carry more passengers. It will have the speed of a subway and possibly be even a little bit faster, since the cars won’t be as heavy, will be powered by 750 Volts instead of 600, and may accelerate faster.

I have to disagree with you on that; it is not “in every way, shape and form, a subway.†I have noticed over the course of the election that people have been told, supposedly by someone from (or on contract with) the TTC, that Eglinton’s tunnel is being built to subway spec. If it actually is someone from/with the TTC, this is very troubling because it is irrefutably false, but only transparently so if you know anything about engineering. This is effectively preying on the general public’s lack of specialized knowledge, and that bothers me a lot. This should not be tolerated, and the City and TTC should go out of their way to set the record straight that this is not being designed to subway spec (unless there have been substantial and dramatic changes since the EA was approved, which I doubt). This kind of misinformation ultimately only undermines any support for LRT anywhere.

There are a number of elements with the tunnel that make it outright impossible to be served by subway in future. These include:
- Grades (4.x% and 5% grades can be found in the Eglinton tunnel’s proposed design, but 3.5% is the max for HRT)
- Turnouts at X-overs and pockets (turning radii requirements differ dramatically between the two technologies)
- Pocket lengths (far too short for subway in the Eglinton tunnel’s proposed design; only fits LRTs)
- Vertical curvature (minimum “K†value for subway is 35m, but many instances of 25m in Eglinton tunnel, and one at 23m)

This is not a small list, especially when you consider directly related vertical alignment requirements that result in a long series of domino effects. Given the money involved, and the relatively small difference in cost, it should be a subway-compatible tunnel, platform height issues notwithstanding. In my opinion, the design proposed currently for the Eglinton tunnel is unacceptable, as it is not “future proof.â€

I would also disagree with Sheppard’s capacity being lower than the Eglinton LRT’s would be. Even with 4-car trains and no ATO (Sheppard actually does have ATO signals already, just not ATO rolling stock), its practical capacity (if you add rolling stock as required (a non-issue since TTC will soon have a surplus of T1s after TRs are delivered)) is 17,000! Given that the station boxes are roughed in for full-length 6-car trains, there’s no major impediment to a capacity of ~25,000 on Sheppard with T1s (higher still with TRs), truth be told. Not that that would ever be needed, seeing as it only carries 5,000 now (hence its $10M loss per year), but its capacity is far higher than the Eglinton LRT can ever hope to be, with its maximum at 13,000.

Given that Sheppard carries 5,000 now, I find it hard to believe the projections of only 5,400 for Eglinton in 2031. If a proverbial “subway to nowhere†can net a demand of 5,000 today, one that actually goes somewhere will surely hit higher than 5,400 in 20 years from now.

As for the speed, although it is quite probable that the acceleration rates will be superior on the LRT vehicles, the real reason that the Eglinton LRT will be faster than its Bloor-Danforth equivalent is because it has far too few stations along the underground part of the line. This issue was glossed over with an unacceptable frame of reference, comparing the 10-or-so-km Eglinton tunnel with the entire 26km Bloor-Danforth subway, which is itself a piece of repeated misinformation throughout the consultation process.
 
Rob Ford's old ward (Ward 2) is south of the Finch West LRT and north of the Eglinton Crosstown LRT. The only brush his old ward would have had with any LRT would have been in the extreme southwest end of Ward 2, where the Eglinton LRT would have gone up Silver Dart Drive on its way up to YYZ.

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Just by looking at his old ward, you can see that it is mostly highways anyways.

Man those light standards must have voted in droves then!!!
 
See, they're actually trying to prevent subways from being built in Toronto.

Someone should send Giambrone, Miller and Munro to the gallows for outright lying to the taxpayer about a subway compatible LRT tunnel.

First of all, Steve Munro never claimed that the tunnel is subway-compatible. I can't be sure about Giambrone or Miller as I did not follow their statements.

Furthermore, let's not reduce the debate to just a binary choice between subway vs LRT. This was not the purpose of my reference. There are multiple options here and each has certain advantages and drawbacks:

1) Full subway from the beginning: (+) capacity for future; (-) harder to extend beyond the central tunnel section.

2) LRT 3-car max: (-) capacity in future; (+) cheapest to complete the west and east sections; (+) design already under way.

3) LRT 2 or 3 cars at present, but expandable to 5-cars in future: (+) capacity for future; (-) probably more expensive than 3-car LRT; (?) how much changes in design would be needed? I would think that some of limitations mentioned by Karl Junkin (pocket tracks) would matter for the 5-car LRT option, whereas other limitations (grades) would not apply in that case.

4) LRT at present, but tunnel can be converted HRT: (+) capacity for future; (-) cost and probably significant changes to design; (-) even if the tunnel is convertible, is it feasible to close the line for conversion after it becomes a major part of TTC?

Karl Junkin is trained in the field and his analysis should be taken seriously. However, the last bit (closing the line for conversion in future) makes me a little concerned. If the line starts as LRT, it might be more practical to always operate it with LRT vehicles, but make provisions for long trains in future (essentially, reaching a subway capacity).
 
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First of all, Steve Munro never claimed that the tunnel is subway-compatible. I can't be sure about Giambrone or Miller as I did not follow their statements.

Eglinton was most certainly sold as being able to upgrade to HRT technology in the future, I remember it being one of the key selling points of the plan early on. Maybe that changed in the interm from proposal to technical planning but it was talked about a lot in TTC documents about the TC plan.
 
It's still upgradable, they're just not building the tunnels to exact subway specifications for whatever reason. I agree that it sounds like a short-sighted move, though I doubt Eglinton would ever be upgraded to HRT - the capacity increase between long LRT trains and HRT isn't so great that it couldn't be better offset with the construction of new lines elsewhere.
 
First of all, Steve Munro never claimed that the tunnel is subway-compatible. I can't be sure about Giambrone or Miller as I did not follow their statements.

Furthermore, let's not reduce the debate to just a binary choice between subway vs LRT. This was not the purpose of my reference. There are multiple options here and each has certain advantages and drawbacks:

1) Full subway from the beginning: (+) capacity for future; (-) harder to extend beyond the central tunnel section.

2) LRT 3-car max: (-) capacity in future; (+) cheapest to complete the west and east sections; (+) design already under way.

3) LRT 2 or 3 cars at present, but expandable to 5-cars in future: (+) capacity for future; (-) probably more expensive than 3-car LRT; (?) how much changes in design would be needed? I would think that some of limitations mentioned by Karl Junkin (pocket tracks) would matter for the 5-car LRT option, whereas other limitations (grades) would not apply in that case.

4) LRT at present, but tunnel can be converted HRT: (+) capacity for future; (-) cost and probably significant changes to design; (-) even if the tunnel is convertible, is it feasible to close the line for conversion after it becomes a major part of TTC?

Karl Junkin is trained in the field and his analysis should be taken seriously. However, the last bit (closing the line for conversion in future) makes me a little concerned. If the line starts as LRT, it might be more practical to always operate it with LRT vehicles, but make provisions for long trains in future (essentially, reaching a subway capacity).

He most certainly did. In fact, I clearly remember (don't ask me where he posted this, probably in the Eglinton debates on his blog) that he is against the tunnel being HRT compatible as it raises the cost.
 
^^Going to have to prove it.

Rainforest said:
To my understanding, Karl's preference is to build LRT at present, but modify the tunnel design to make it more suitable for future HRT conversion.

It seems to me, Karl is concerned the TTC, and the City are not telling residents the truth. But that is nothing new?
 
I think you (or I guess the poster on Steve's blog) are making the error that HRT compatible means compatible with the HRT rolling stock Toronto has now. The line will not have a tie in to the current network, and building one in the future would be pretty crazy. Much easier just to buy different rolling stock when the time comes, which will be a long ways off.
 

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