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Decima: poll suggests Conservative breakthrough

I heard Kennedy's speech in Ottawa. He better improve on his french if he wants to be considered bilingual. Overall, though, I kind of like the guy. We'll have to see what he can offer.


Well, considering that Iggy wants to take the LPC to the left, and Rae comes from the left, and Dione wants to be an enviromentalist, and Kennedy is a feed the poor socialist, I'd say this party is firmly seeking either to join with the NDP, or to replace the NDP as Canada's left'ish voice.
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The Liberals won't join the NDP. The party has a long tradition of left of centre policies, so it is nothing new. If anything, this development may draw some people who voted NDP to vote Liberal in an effort to see such policies enacted. The only way the Conservatives will stay in power is if they move towards the centre. I think we will see this happen. This is not a country of extreme right-wingers or extreme left wingers.
 
Typical. The less one knows, the louder one screams the few things he knows.
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Okay, I deserved that. It is a shame we need to have food banks at all.
 
"The NDP is the reason why the Tories are in power, so if you wish to perpetuate this situation then that's a great way to vote."

No, the reason why the Tories are in power is because the Liberals ran a poor campaign and because, to put it bluntly, people had gotten sick of them. This isn't the US, where the country is divided nearly 50-50 and someone like Nader can lose the Democrats an election. The Liberals have by far the largest power base, and any time they lose an election, they've done something wrong.
 
Of course, the Cons are increasing. They are dominating the headlines and fulfilling half-assed election promises. The Libs are regrouping and dont have a leader. Once everything is in place things will get interesting. BTW, the Cons surge is helped in big part by Quebec, where theyre actually ahead of the Bloc.
 
BTW, the Cons surge is helped in big part by Quebec, where theyre actually ahead of the Bloc.
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No kidding. The Bloc has stumbled since the election campaign and has done a poor job offering a relevant message and with all the money that the Conservatives have handed to Quebec as well talking the talk when it comes to 'fiscal imbalances' its not surprising. I must say, the Conservatives have bent over for Quebec in a way that would make the former Liberal governments proud.
 
The Conservatives are strong in much of the West and in rural areas of Ontario. The three biggest cities will remain a real challenge for them, as will much of the Atlantic provinces. If they are to expand their vote into "majority" territory they need one more large new source of support, and Quebec, outside of the island of Montreal, is it.
 
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Conservative budget and softwood deal get passing grade in Decima poll

Canadian Press
Tuesday, May 09, 2006

OTTAWA (CP) - A new poll suggests Prime Minister Stephen Harper's Conservative government may be winning over Canadians with its budget and its handling of the softwood lumber dispute.

That offsets negative public views about the government's policy on Afghanistan casualties and the Conservatives' relationship with the media.

The Decima Research survey, said to be accurate within 3.1 percentage points 19 time out of 20, puts Conservative support at 41 per cent nationally, followed by the Liberals at 29 per cent, the NDP at 16 per cent and the Bloc Quebecois at 10.

The telephone poll of more than 1,000 Canadians conducted May4-7 found 32 per cent of those surveyed say the budget makes them more likely to support the Tories, compared to 20 per cent who say it makes them less likely.

On softwood, the support was 29-17.

But when asked about Harper's decision to limit coverage of dead soldiers returning to Canada, 36 per cent said it made them less likely to vote Tory while 18 per cent liked the decision.

© The Canadian Press 2006
 
The Liberals have gone up since the last poll, and the conservatives are holding steady.
 
The Conservatives are still living in the honeymoon season. We should still expect them to be criticizing actions of the previous government for some time longer. After the summer break, all bets are off.
 
I read today that the government is going to sue the Liberal party of Canada to recoup the Adscam monies. This must surely have negative effect on the Liberal election chances, as they will have less money to campaign with, and, assuming they lose the lawsuit they'll have a poor reputation. Throw in Ontario's least popular former premier Bob Rae, and I can't see the Conservatives failing to get their majority.
 
SES Research National Survey - Conservatives Lead - Noticeable Tory Pick-up in Quebec

Our most recent national survey of Canadians completed by SES Research Tuesday Night (May 9) has the Conservatives with a comfortable lead over the Liberals (Conservative 38%, Liberals 28%) on the national ballot. NDP support is at 19% followed by the Bloc Quebecois at 9% and the Green Party at 6%. The Conservatives have picked up support in Quebec (+11 points) and are now in a statistical tie with the BQ. Currently, Ontario is also a statistical tie between the Conservatives and the Liberals.

“Our last national poll was conducted at the time of the Emerson-Fortier cabinet announcements – at that time the Conservatives and Liberals were statistically tied. The Conservatives now have pulled ahead in the post budget period. There seems to be minimal political blow-back on the Emerson-Fortier appointments,†said Nik Nanos, President of SES Research. “The Harper-led Conservatives have also realised noticeable 90-day gains in Quebec at the expense of all the other parties. Harper’s focus on Quebec seems to be moving the Conservative numbers.â€

Methodology
Polling between May 4th and May 9th, 2006 (Random Telephone Survey of Canadians, 18 years of age and older). Percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding. The change in brackets is from the last SES National Survey completed February 9th, 2006.

Decided Canadian Voters (N=930, MoE ± 3.2%, 19 times out of 20)

Conservatives 38% (+5)
Liberals 28% (-6)
NDP 19% (+1)
Bloc Quebecois 9% (0)

Green 6% (-1)

Undecided 8% (+5)

The detailed tables with the regional sub-tabs and methodology are posted on our website at: SES Research

Feel free to forward this e-mail. Any use of the poll should identify the source as the “SES Research National Survey.â€

Cheers,

Nik

______________________________

Nikita James Nanos, CMRP
President & CEO
SES Research
T 613.234.4666 ext. 237
SES Research
 
Does anyone here (besides perhaps myself) think the Conservatives have a good chance at a majority election win in 2007 or 2008?
 
Does anyone here (besides perhaps myself) think the Conservatives have a good chance at a majority election win in 2007 or 2008?
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I think they have a decent chance.
 
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