So low that the Joke TTC maps mock the low usage at every RT station with the exception of the STC
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Like I said before, they're only considering the STC at the moment because the vast majority of users of the line only take it between the STC and line 2. According to the actual statistics:
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The only other station with even remotely significant ridership is Lawrence East, and there is a clear consensus here that at the very least, there should be a stop on a subway or LRT at Lawrence East.
Although I fully support the creation of regional rail on EVERY GO line, we still have to consider the many factors associated with choosing regional rail over the existing rapid transit. For starters, during peak times, 12 car trains on every line are packed; that's about 5000 people per train. Trying to squeeze any more people on single-level EMUs will be a challenge even with capacity upgrades along the corridor. We also must consider that regional rail building in Scarborough means LRT and upgraded RT is off the table, and as many people have pointed out before in this thread, not everyone is travelling downtown. With the existing layout, you can get from Scarborough, around parts of Scarborough (McCowan-VicPark), from Scarborough downtown, Old Toronto, and the Lakeshore area (VIA line 2), and in the future, you'll be able to get to Midtown via the Eglinton Crosstown and Uptown Via the Sheppard East LRT. Making Smarttrack the only option in Scarborough is actually extremely stupid because you can only go from certain areas of Scarborough to Pape/Gerrard, and Union Station. With this in mind, barely anyone makes this trip; the majority are heading to other areas of Toronto, this brings us to the actual time-saving element questions.
Let's consider a trip starting at the entrance of a Regional Rail station and a Rapid Transit station along Ellesmere. For the regional rail, assuming 15-minute frequencies, we'll say the wait time is about 7 minutes. For the subway, since Ellesmere would be the terminus, we can assume 1-2 minutes entering the station and 1-2 minutes waiting. This equates to 3 minutes of wait time. Now, let's consider trip times. For the regional rail, an existing trip between Kennedy is 20-25 minutes. With the addition of new stations along the route, we'll use 25 minutes, plus 5 minutes for the transit time between Kennedy and Ellesmere, and dwell time at Lawrence East station, bringing Regional Rail transit time at 37 minutes. An existing subway trip between Kennedy and Union takes about 35 minutes, plus the 7 minutes between Ellesmere and Kennedy, that brings transit time to 42 minutes, and a net travel time of 45 minutes. Although it seems as though the regional rail wins by 7 minutes, we're not finished yet. This is only Union station. What about a student that is going from Ellesmere to U of T? or a shopper going to the Eaton Centre? Net travel times are 30 minutes and 36 minutes respectively. For regional rail, we must factor in the convoluted transfer at Union Station (5 minutes), as well as subway transit time (6 minutes and 5 minutes respectively). In total, these trips would take 48 and 47 minutes respectively. These are differences of up to 18 minutes. The majority of commuters heading to Union from Scarborough already use GO. Now we must ask ourselves if regional rail is really a feasible alternative for everyone else.
Sherway is really close to Kipling station, and they have the 501, and they're getting the Waterfront East LRT and maybe a BD extension in a few decades. Jane and Finch is getting 2 LRTs in the future. What other areas of the city will be so disenfranchised from transit in the future?