Danforth Line 2 Scarborough Subway Extension

[nfitz]

10,000 is not anything to be bragging about and it will be less then that when Stouffville gets all day service.

10,000 near the periphery of the line is nothing to brag about? And yet the forecast ridership on the Spadina line north of Pioneer Village is 2,000?

10,000 is fine. If you have 30,000 at the end of the subway line, you've got a big problem, because no one else can get on!

Stouffville won't have much if any impact on the subway from Scarborough Centre to Kennedy. I can see a few people getting off at Kennedy to get on the Stouffville line to head to Union. I can't see people at Scarborough Centre travelling north to McCowan/Sheppard and then changing to Line 7 to Agincourt and then taking the GO to Union. It would be faster to simply take the subway to Kennedy. I'm not sure anyone starting near McCowan/Sheppard would take Line 7 to Agincourt over taking Line 2 to Kennedy. And I'd think most from west of McCowan would change to the subway at McCowan over GO at Agincourt given the walking necessary from those proposed middle-of-the-road platforms at Agincourt station to the station.

It should be zero. Why would you build one when the costs are rising and it might have to be cut back. Then if it ends at STC, what was the point of the exercise?

Where is there any evidence the costs are rising? The amount in the TTC report the other day was the same as in the council report back in October, when it was approved.

 

[datamouse]

Hell, the Scarb subway has the ridership to offset (or come darn close) operating costs.

 

[nfitz]

I'm just trying to figure out why people are still support the Bloor Danforth extension even though all the numbers point to it being a bad idea

For one, the numbers are better than any subway extension started since the 1970s.

Second, because you won't create a transit disaster by shutting down the SRT for up to 3 years.

Third, because it's already fully approved.

Let's move forward ...

(and yes, I opposed it last year, simply because we already had the SRT replacement being tendered).

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

Before I first started paying closer attention to transit, I thought the B-D subway extension to Scarborough was the best idea. When I realized how many transfers there were at Y-B, I realized that the B-D subway does not go downtown - it goes just north of it. Scarborough riders are forced to make a transfer at Y-B. Then my thinking switched to second transfer at Kennedy. Is this transfer needed as well?

I can understand that they do not want to have a second transfer on their downtown trip. If a less expensive way of eliminating this second transfer were proposed, I am sure the overly expensive B-D subway extension would have died.

Instead, the harder the LRT advocates pushed on the forced transfer at Kennedy, the harder the B-D subway extension advocates pushed for a subway extension. Both sides have become so stubborn that they refuse to budge. Support will continue close to 50% for each proposal and we are doomed to have countless more delays and flip-flops.

This is a good point. The transfer is at the core of these problems.

You keep equating it to Sheppard. They are totally different routes/lines, BD-extension has way better numbers than Sheppard.

10,000 near the periphery of the line is nothing to brag about? And yet the forecast ridership on the Spadina line north of Pioneer Village is 2,000?

10,000 is fine. If you have 30,000 at the end of the subway line, you've got a big problem, because no one else can get on!

Stouffville won't have much if any impact on the subway from Scarborough Centre to Kennedy. I can see a few people getting off at Kennedy to get on the Stouffville line to head to Union. I can't see people at Scarborough Centre travelling north to McCowan/Sheppard and then changing to Line 7 to Agincourt and then taking the GO to Union. It would be faster to simply take the subway to Kennedy. I'm not sure anyone starting near McCowan/Sheppard would take Line 7 to Agincourt over taking Line 2 to Kennedy. And I'd think most from west of McCowan would change to the subway at McCowan over GO at Agincourt given the walking necessary from those proposed middle-of-the-road platforms at Agincourt station to the station.

Where is there any evidence the costs are rising? The amount in the TTC report the other day was the same as in the council report back in October, when it was approved.

For one, the numbers are better than any subway extension started since the 1970s.

Second, because you won't create a transit disaster by shutting down the SRT for up to 3 years.

Third, because it's already fully approved.

Let's move forward ...

(and yes, I opposed it last year, simply because we already had the SRT replacement being tendered).

First off the subway was supposed to cost 3 billion and now its at at least 3.5 billion. But fine. I will stop and continue my protest in silence

 

[nfitz]

First off the subway was supposed to cost 3 billion and now its at at least 3.5 billion.

I asked this before. Where is this $3 billion number coming from? $3.5 billion was the number that council approved back in October last year. So where is this meme that it's gone up $500 million coming from?

 

[BurlOak]

I asked this before. Where is this $3 billion number coming from? $3.5 billion was the number that council approved back in October last year. So where is this meme that it's gone up $500 million coming from?

Well the number started at about $2.5B. $500M or $600M more than the $1.8B for the SRT replacement.

http://www.ward16to.ca/?p=2543

A subway extension [Bloor-Danforth line to Sheppard Avenue] can be done for about $500-600 million more than the LRT, or about 25% more money, nowhere close to the 350% more which would be needed for Sheppard to be a (shorter) subway;

 

[Midtown Urbanist]

For one, the numbers are better than any subway extension started since the 1970s.

Second, because you won't create a transit disaster by shutting down the SRT for up to 3 years.

Third, because it's already fully approved.

Let's move forward ...

(and yes, I opposed it last year, simply because we already had the SRT replacement being tendered).

In addition, it makes the SELRT make a lot more sense as now people in northern Scarborough have the option to heading towards B-D or Yonge on their way downtown. (Assuming a connection between the two exists.)

 

[nfitz]

Well the number started at about $2.5B. $500M or $600M more than the $1.8B for the SRT replacement.

The $2.5B is the $3.6B. The original council report makes that clear. $2.5B in 2010$, and $3.6B in escalated (i.e. year of spending $). See http://www.toronto.ca/legdocs/mmis/2013/cc/bgrd/backgroundfile-62259.pdf

So is there any real basis for this meme that the cost has gone up by $1.1B or $500 million? Initially I was thinking I'd missed something, but now I'm not so sure.

 

[Midtown Urbanist]

This pro-LRT or pro-subway business has to stop, one technology isn't better than the other, they are just simply that, different forms of transportation technologies. We decide on the technology that best suits the route and transit corridor at the best price. The reason why the SRT route is being so hotly debated and flipping back and forth is because both the LRT plan and the B-D expansion suit the SRT route well and have their share of pros.

I think the suggestions of building a subway on Sheppard East because "we listened to the public in B-D" to be utter lunacy. The public doesn't know better than transit experts and going back to what I said earlier about picking the technology that best suits the route, the Sheppard East route in no way at all can support subways. It can hardly support an LRT line! The debate, (if any, considering funding is in place for LRT) should be between building an LRT, a dedicated ROW BRT, or building nothing.

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

I asked this before. Where is this $3 billion number coming from? $3.5 billion was the number that council approved back in October last year. So where is this meme that it's gone up $500 million coming from?

Well the number started at about $2.5B. $500M or $600M more than the $1.8B for the SRT replacement.

http://www.ward16to.ca/?p=2543

The $2.5B is the $3.6B. The original council report makes that clear. $2.5B in 2010$, and $3.6B in escalated (i.e. year of spending $). See http://www.toronto.ca/legdocs/mmis/2013/cc/bgrd/backgroundfile-62259.pdf

So is there any real basis for this meme that the cost has gone up by $1.1B or $500 million? Initially I was thinking I'd missed something, but now I'm not so sure.

Everyone said this this would cost less than 3 billion. Metrolinx said as much. The 3.5 billion number is recent. Something has happened recently that the cost has gone up, but what is it?

 

[Juan_Lennon416]

For one, the numbers are better than any subway extension started since the 1970s.

Second, because you won't create a transit disaster by shutting down the SRT for up to 3 years.

Third, because it's already fully approved.

Let's move forward ...

(and yes, I opposed it last year, simply because we already had the SRT replacement being tendered).

Excellent points! You really need to show this to TigerMaster who continues to cry about not getting an LRT

 

[nfitz]

Everyone said this this would cost less than 3 billion. Metrolinx said as much. The 3.5 billion number is recent. Something has happened recently that the cost has gone up, but what is it?

Why do you say the $3.5 billion number is recent, when I keep pointing out it's been floating around for a long time?

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

Why do you say the $3.5 billion number is recent, when I keep pointing out it's been floating around for a long time?

Where's the proof of that though. The most recent date for it is June 24, in here

 

[GenerationW]

Why do you say the $3.5 billion number is recent, when I keep pointing out it's been floating around for a long time?

Because we should build both subways or neither......or something.

 

[nfitz]

Where's the proof of that though. The most recent date for it is June 24, in here

In the link I keep posting? The City Council agenda item for October when they approved the subway - http://www.toronto.ca/legdocs/mmis/2013/cc/bgrd/backgroundfile-62259.pdf where it says $3.6 billion in escalated $ ($2.5 billion in 2010$)

If you dig back further, this are the same numbers as back in the July 2013 conditional approval by council - http://www.toronto.ca/legdocs/mmis/2013/cc/bgrd/backgroundfile-60240.pdf (where it states $2.3 billion in 2010$ plus the extension demolition costs for the SRT (which are included in the later $2.5 billion in 2010$).

So once again I ask ... given the $ amounts are unchanged in a year ... where is this meme that the costs have gone up by $500 million to $1.1 billion coming from?