TheTigerMaster
Superstar
If the NDP pulled the plug on the Liberals in October or November of last year, I believe the polls had all 3 parties neck and neck. The NDP could have quite conceivably won the most seats in a Minority government and had the 3rd place Liberals supporting them. If the NDP pulled the plug on the Liberals in February or March, the Conservatives probably would have won the most seats, but the NDP may have been able to form a 2-3 coalition (Pederson style) to form government. Now it seems that the NDP is slipping into 3rd place and is moving towards irrelevance in a two party race as the anti waste and corruption portion of the NDP moves to the conservatives (probably a smaller group) and the bulk of the left of centre support moves towards Wynne, who is proving to be better than Dalton (not hard to do). In a few more months the NDP will be so far down that Wynne will no longer have to adjust any policies to the NDP, since the NDP will be terrified to force a vote.
I would say that the only time better than now for the NDP to force and election is yesterday. The only time worse than now is tommorow.
I've been thinking about this for the past hour. You and I are in total agreement. As the Ornge and gas plant scandals fade away, the leadership of the Ontario Liberals become more solidified by the day. An election will not be called before 2016 as long as nothing horrible happes. In the unlikely scenario that one is called, the Conservatives would have a very small chance of winning. A Conservative majority is completely unlikely.
Looking to the 2016 election, chances are that the Liberals would hold onto power (assuming nothing horrible happens). Whether they lose seats or become majority is anyones guess.
The province is solidly Liberal red for the foreseeable future.