Danforth Line 2 Scarborough Subway Extension

[denfromoakvillemilton]

Downsview has same ridership (38.8K) to the current Lawrence East and Scarborough Centre/McCowan stations (38.7K); and that's predicted to increase a bit once there's no change at Kennedy (and no incentive to take bus all the way to Kennedy).

Looking at the TTC study which compared using the current SRT just to McCowan to a 2-stop subway to Scarborough Centre, there was a 24.7% peak-hour ridership increase just by converting to subway. Assuming this holds for the entire day, then 38.8K would become 48.1K - far higher than Downsview.

That same study also notes explicitly that only half the trains would go past Kennedy at peak - but that during "off-peak periods, there would probably be no need to change trains (on the basis of TTC minimum frequency standards for subway operation)".

Incidentally, the same study also predicts what would happen to ridership on the existing RT if the Sheppard subway was built from Don Mills to Scarborough Centre. The RT ridership would go up marginally (about 2%). So much for the theory of some that building the Sheppard subway to Scarborough Centre is an alternative to the SRT.

This is the same TTC trying to sell us Bellamy Road as a subway corridor, remember. But interesting study. So again, what is the problem with the two stop subway in the SRT corridor? If you don't believe SmartTrack is getting built, I believe you're against it, then that would be the best option. There is no reason why we would have to spend 4.5 billion when we can spend under 2 billion and get similar results.

You'd run more trains. There's no shortage of trains off-peak, just peak - which is why some are short-turned.

With what money?

 

[nfitz]

This is the same TTC trying to sell us Bellamy Road as a subway corridor, remember.

I'm not aware of any indication that TTC is trying to sell Bellamy Road. TTC hasn't provided any indication on their preferred option as far as I know.

I have no reason to doubt their modelling - it should be ballpark for SRT versus subway. If there's bias in that study, then it would be anti-subway - and yet it showed almost a 25% ridership increase for subway other SRT.

So again, what is the problem with the two stop subway in the SRT corridor?

It costs $billions instead of $360 million.

With what money?

We can find many $billions for an unneccesary subway but we can't find money to run 77 off-peak trainsets instead of 74 off-peak trainsets? Worst comes to worst, they can raise fares by an ⅛¢. But savings could come from eliminating cost of running McCowan Yard, a few less buses with direct subway to Scarborough Centre, etc. Operating off-peak service isn't the cost issue. It's buying the extra trains, yard space, etc. for peak service that is the issue.

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

I'm not aware of any indication that TTC is trying to sell Bellamy Road. TTC hasn't provided any indication on their preferred option as far as I know.

I have no reason to doubt their modelling - it should be ballpark for SRT versus subway. If there's bias in that study, then it would be anti-subway - and yet it showed almost a 25% ridership increase for subway other SRT.

I don't either, but it was 9 years ago that study came out. Things are different now, now and it's clear some at city hall and the media have hesitations about the subway.

It costs $billions instead of $360 million.

It will cost less billions then Midland, McCowan, Bellamy or Markham road though. And Scarborough has indicated that they don't want the SRT. What else can we do at this point?

We can find many $billions for an unneccesary subway but we can't find money to run 77 off-peak trainsets instead of 74 off-peak trainsets? Worst comes to worst, they can raise fares by an ⅛¢. But savings could come from eliminating cost of running McCowan Yard, a few less buses with direct subway to Scarborough Centre, etc. Operating off-peak service isn't the cost issue. It's buying the extra trains, yard space, etc. for peak service that is the issue.

You make it sound like it's easy to find the money. Politics comes into play. We'll see, but I won't be surprised if Tory comes out saying the subway is being pushed back or that the SRT or Bellamy corridors will be chosen. He wants SmartTrack badly.

 

[nfitz]

I don't either, but it was 9 years ago that study came out. Things are different now...

The general ballpark comparison of riderships should hold.

And Scarborough has indicated that they don't want the SRT. What else can we do at this point?

Toronto-East York has indicated they don't want the hybrid option. Scarborough doesn't get the final say here.

You make it sound like it's easy to find the money.

No, that's not my point. My point is extra operating cost is so utterly small, that it's trivial - it might not be any higher than current. With only 2 stations versus 5, it's going to be cheaper to staff the stations. You'd only need 4 extra trains off-peak to provide same frequency as Line 2 currently has... but they are running 4 SRT trains off-peak now ... so no extra cost there.

More importantly, TTC has stated they don't plan to short-turn trains at Kennedy off-peak. So that should be the basis we compare things to.

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

The general ballpark comparison of riderships should hold.

I would hope so given ridership has risen.

Toronto-East York has indicated they don't want the hybrid option. Scarborough doesn't get the final say here.

But the entire subway will be built in Scarborough? Toronto East York is already getting the DRL and SmartTrack.

No, that's not my point. My point is extra operating cost is so utterly small, that it's trivial - it might not be any higher than current. With only 2 stations versus 5, it's going to be cheaper to staff the stations. You'd only need 4 extra trains off-peak to provide same frequency as Line 2 currently has... but they are running 4 SRT trains off-peak now ... so no extra cost there.

More importantly, TTC has stated they don't plan to short-turn trains at Kennedy off-peak. So that should be the basis we compare things to.

We'll see. If the alignment is Bellamy there will be a ridership issue I believe imho.

 

[CDL.TO]

I believe in campaigning Smart Track was described not just as having integrated fares, but specifically as having a "TTC Fare".

 

[nfitz]

I believe in campaigning Smart Track was described not just as having integrated fares, but specifically as having a "TTC Fare".

The downtown express buses have TTC fare ... $5.80 cash.

Push come to shove ... will council come up with that kind of cash to start subsidizing GO inside 416? Not sure it's worth debating that.

 

[sixrings]

I believe in campaigning Smart Track was described not just as having integrated fares, but specifically as having a "TTC Fare".

Why do people never trust politicians except when it benefits them? At 36 I don't consider myself old but old enough to read between the lines of a politicians promise.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

I'm half your age and I can smell the bull cr*p coming out of politicians mouth from a mile away.

Anyways, as I said during the campaign, GO RER is a service owned and operated by Metrolinx, an agency of the Province of Ontario. Mayor JT can ask nicely for them to use the TTC's fare structure, but at the end of the day Metrolinx will do whatever the hell they want with their fare structures. JT's promises that RER will use TTC fare structure is a load of crap. The mayor hardly has the power to dictate and make promises about municipal policy, let alone dictate policy for other levels of government.

 

[wopchop]

There is no chance in hell that we will be able to ride the trains without paying a premium on top of the basic fare price. All the other transit agencies in the GTA might have co-fare agreements, but they certainly aren't riding trains for the same price as their regular fare. All of those people would flip their lids if Toronto all of a sudden got that special privilege.

The downtown express example is very apt, IMO.

 

[W. K. Lis]

Maybe if we put up some cardboard cows along the routes, they might get a hint.

Wonder where can we get them?

 

[rbt]

The downtown express buses have TTC fare ... $5.80 cash.

Push come to shove ... will council come up with that kind of cash to start subsidizing GO inside 416? Not sure it's worth debating that.

Might not need to. If GO can squeeze 300,000+ trips per day on a corridor 50% of the TTC fare (assuming TTC gets the other 50% for local bus service) would cover their operations of that corridor. TTC charges $850 per hour for filming a subway train and makes a profit including covering capital portion. If we take that as their actual cost we get around 476 hours of service (26 trains for 18 hours) from a $405k/day operating budget ($2.70 / 2 * 300k). With a 78 minute round trip (Union to Markham to Union), that's 3 minute frequencies 18 hours a day.

Doesn't cover station attendants and the like, but as I said earlier that $850/hour filming fee covers rolling stock wear-and-tear and a profit margin so it's probably +-30% of correct.

Obviously a very heavily subsidized local service would be required to feed GO but they ought to be able to cover trunk-line operating costs with a portion of a TTC fare if they get a trunk-line type load.

 

[gweed123]

I think the likelihood that, by the time SmartTrack and GO RER are in operation, the TTC and GO have the same fare structures that they have today is pretty low. The inter-connectedness of the two systems will require a change in one, or both, in order to properly serve riders. My guess is there will be a common fare zone structure between the two.

 

[dowlingm]

The issue with GO mopping up lots of 416ers is that it saturates their inner corridors (and Union capacity). If that means sacrificing adding capacity in the 905 which could be demonstrated to be up for grabs, the 905er MPPs will not be silent about it. If 416ers aren't paying fares which 905ers regard as being a fair share of GO revenue vs cost/overheads then that's an issue too. If a TTC fare is $3 and a GO-TTC saves you a bunch of time by operating an express route, I don't understand the resistance to being willing to pay more. It's like Torontonians (or at least "rider advocates") can understand $3 for a stopping service and $30 for a door to door taxi but nothing in between.

For me the annoying part about the downtown express was the difference in premium between cash/token fare (double) and the Metropass sticker (about 1/3, assuming Express is your primary use of TTC). I think for a lot of people this lessened the incentive to try out 140 series routes which still run in mixed traffic and still make some stops. A token plus a loonie or even a toonie might have been a bit more attractive.

 

[robmausser]

I think the likelihood that, by the time SmartTrack and GO RER are in operation, the TTC and GO have the same fare structures that they have today is pretty low. The inter-connectedness of the two systems will require a change in one, or both, in order to properly serve riders. My guess is there will be a common fare zone structure between the two.

This isnt a guess its a reality

http://metronews.ca/news/toronto/456688/ttc-gets-on-board-with-presto/