Danforth Line 2 Scarborough Subway Extension

[nfitz]

Well, okay, in that case I reiterate - so what? Why is that important? So now this becomes the biggest gap in the system. Big deal?

Because it's just absurd. You wouldn't go past Lawrence without a station. And you wouldn't go over 5 km inside Toronto without a station. Lawrence/McCowan is a major employment hub.

And Eglinton/Danforth has about 2,000 people an hour per direction on buses going past it westbound in AM Peak. That could be a relatively busy subway station.

 

[bobbob911]

Is it more absurd than running the subway up Bellamy and paying an extra $700m just because there are already SmartTrack stops close by the McCowan alignment??? Because that's the current situation.

You seem to be ignoring the completely absurd situation we are already in, in favor of some alternate reality where this planning is done rationally instead of politically.

 

[nfitz]

Is it more absurd than running the subway up Bellamy and paying an extra $700m just because there are already SmartTrack stops close by the McCowan alignment??? Because that's the current situation.

No it isn't. That's just an option. And likely an option put out simply to justify the McCowan option. I very much doubt the subway is going up Bellamy

 

[wopchop]

Which GO train goes to STC? And you do realize the SmartTrack plan makes the GO substantially less express in this area right?

Obviously it doesn't. But why build a subway to serve long-distance express service. It's simply absurd.

Smarttrack also doesn't necessarily preclude different levels of service. Lakeshore West, for instance (and lots of systems across the planet), manage to run local and express services.

And how much eglinton east LRT extension could you buy with $720m? That's a ton of money. Plus, you are presuming that it would still be 100% tunneled - if you have no requirements for strategic stops along the way you can probably find a route that was substantially grade separated and/or elevated. I bet you could claw back $1B

Maybe you should go work for a cost consultant. If you could save them $1B with a couple minutes of armchair planning, then you could make a very good living.

 

[WislaHD]

So Bellamy is there to justify McCowen because McCowen is unjustified by SmartTrack.

That is incredibly bad logic. If there is anything that is absurd it is the above statement.

 

[wopchop]

Bellamy is there because it would be bad practice to conduct an corridor assessment to determine the best alignment and only analyze one alignment.

I don't understand why anyone is surprised that Bellamy, or any of the other adjacent corridors, was included as part of the project assessment.

 

[nfitz]

So Bellamy is there to justify McCowen because McCowen is unjustified by SmartTrack.

That is incredibly bad logic. If there is anything that is absurd it is the above statement.

What's absurd is making conclusions before we see the report.

Personally I doubt that there's much sensitivity of SmartTrack to the subway ridership numbers, and vice-versa - I think it's too different markets (so to speak). I also doubt that SmartTrack's numbers will justify doing anything more than the planned GO RER service - with perhaps an extra station here and there.

 

[WislaHD]

What's absurd is making conclusions before we see the report.

Personally I doubt that there's much sensitivity of SmartTrack to the subway ridership numbers, and vie-versa - I think it's too different markets (so to speak). I also doubt that SmartTrack's numbers will justify doing anything more than the planned GO RER service - with perhaps an extra station here and there.

The biggest game changer for the subway are Markham commuters opting for SmartTrack. That I speculate will reduce SSE numbers significantly.

I don't have reason to believe SmartTrack's numbers would be any different than GO-RER, it is essentially the same service. A station at Finch is probably justifiable though.

 

[nfitz]

The biggest game changer for the subway are Markham commuters opting for SmartTrack. That I speculate will reduce SSE numbers significantly.

The only station for which that should effect ridership is Sheppard/McCowan ... my guess is that the majority of those using that station aren't coming from Markham.

Though it it DOES make that much difference, maybe the answer is we stop the subway at Scarborough Centre rather than building something to service other cities.

 

[Rainforest]

No, what you are doing is being an apologist for a subway that might not have the numbers and won't have the numbers if pushed east.

I am not an "apologist", am a supporter of the subway. You are free to disagree with my position but you are not entitled to describe it in derogatory terms.

No, you have a problem with people who want to change the plan (I really don't care at this point, like I said the subway is here.) Half of council voted against the subway. All the new media and most traditional media is against the subway.

No, I do not have a "problem" with all those opponents of the subway. I disagree with them, but at the same time, recognize that people do and will have varying opinions on this matter.

You, on the other hand, appear to have a "problem" with the fact that not everybody shares your opinion.

The issue with you and the others is the fact you fail yet again to recognize that SSE opposition is not just some echo chamber on UT. It's widespread.

Your statement is untruthful. Yes, the opposition to subway is widespread. But you have no ground to accuse me of failing to recognize it.

You're ignoring that to accuse me of misrepresentation because you're more interested in pandering to the masses. This is politicking.

Another untruthful statement on your part. You are pretending that I am a politician and am trying to win the votes. In reality, I am not a politician and have no intention to run for a public office. My daytime job is quite remote from public politics or transit matters. I am posting here as an interested transit rider, and not in any other role.

You don't get to pick and choose which low ridership subway is better.

You can put a limit on your own reasoning process but you cannot impose your limits on other participants.

This idea that one subway is good but not the other is completely bogus.

That's your personal opinion, not mandatory for acceptance by others.

Rainforest I am not attacking you personally

Yes you are; by using aggressive language in what is supposed to be a rational discussion, and adding untruthful accusations.

 

[Rainforest]

The only station for which that should effect ridership is Sheppard/McCowan ... my guess is that the majority of those using that station aren't coming from Markham.

Though it it DOES make that much difference, maybe the answer is we stop the subway at Scarborough Centre rather than building something to service other cities.

Stopping the subway at Scarborough Centre may be a reasonable modification, since the diversion of some commuters from Markham to SmartTrack might reduce the demand at Sheppard & McCowan station.

However, if the subway stops at STC, I would also consider restoring the eastern section of SLRT. Basically, I would look at the LRT line that starts at STC, runs to Centennial Progress campus, then crosses Sheppard and runs to Malvern Centre; with a possible branch to the Zoo.

Such shifted to the east LRT could both improve the subway ridership count, and address one of the issues with subway (that it is not useful enough for the riders who live in the north-east of Scarborough).

 

[wopchop]

Such shifted to the east LRT could both improve the subway ridership count, and address one of the issues with subway (that it is not useful enough for the riders who live in the north-east of Scarborough).

If we cut back the Scarborough Subway Extension to STC, saving approximately $720m, but instead wanted to use that $720m towards a LRT system for Scarborough, how much could that buy?

One thought that I had was to analyze two different scenarios. In scenario one, the SSE is cancelled, but the approved council funding (of $3.6b, I believe?) is used towards an LRT system. In scenario two, Line 2 is extended to Scarborough Town Centre, and the remainder of the funding used for LRT system for Scarborough that feeds into STC. The first question would be, what does each network look like with the funding? And the second question would be to look at the potential ridership of both scenarios.

 

[superman]

If we cut back the Scarborough Subway Extension to STC, saving approximately $720m, but instead wanted to use that $720m towards a LRT system for Scarborough, how much could that buy?

One thought that I had was to analyze two different scenarios. In scenario one, the SSE is cancelled, but the approved council funding (of $3.6b, I believe?) is used towards an LRT system. In scenario two, Line 2 is extended to Scarborough Town Centre, and the remainder of the funding used for LRT system for Scarborough that feeds into STC. The first question would be, what does each network look like with the funding? And the second question would be to look at the potential ridership of both scenarios.

We really should've used the incremental money to build the original Ford-McGuinty plan... underground or elevated Eglinton East line between Laird and Kennedy, and keep the SRT all the way to Centennial College + Sheppard.

 

[Rainforest]

We really should've used the incremental money to build the original Ford-McGuinty plan... underground or elevated Eglinton East line between Laird and Kennedy, and keep the SRT all the way to Centennial College + Sheppard.

That solution was not ideal, either:

1) A lot of riders would be diverted from BD subway to Eglinton LRT, causing a capacity crunch at both Eglinton LRT (approaching Yonge) and Yonge subway (from Eglinton to Bloor).

2) Finch LRT would be lost completely; while now it is on track.

 

[Rainforest]

If we cut back the Scarborough Subway Extension to STC, saving approximately $720m, but instead wanted to use that $720m towards a LRT system for Scarborough, how much could that buy?

One thought that I had was to analyze two different scenarios. In scenario one, the SSE is cancelled, but the approved council funding (of $3.6b, I believe?) is used towards an LRT system. In scenario two, Line 2 is extended to Scarborough Town Centre, and the remainder of the funding used for LRT system for Scarborough that feeds into STC. The first question would be, what does each network look like with the funding? And the second question would be to look at the potential ridership of both scenarios.

My thoughts:

Scenario 1 (subway is cancelled entirely):
- Provincial funding (about $1,6B) will remain in place, to build SLRT (they can't reject it).
- Federal funding (about $700M) will be taken away, and not available for LRT. Potentially, it could be re-purposed for another high-visibility city project, such as SmartTrack or DRL.
- Municipal funding (about $900M) will disappear entirely. Resentful Scarborough councilors would join forces with tax opponents from all over the city.

Scenario 2 (subway is shortened to STC, but LRT is added): although I see merits in that scenario, I cannot claim that it is a boon for other LRT lines. All funding has to remain in place (that's not guaranteed but hopefully achievable), and the $700 or so spared from the subway will have to be spent on LRT. The LRT section from STC to Sheppard will have to be costly (elevated, plus a short tunnel under 401). From Sheppard & Progress to Malvern Centre, it might be possible to reduce costs by running on surface along Sheppard and then Neilson instead of tunnelng. Anyway, there won't be any leftover for the Kingston Road LRT or anything; such projects would have to be funded separately.

Ridership: I expect Scenario 2 to lead to somewhat higher ridership than the SLRT-only option. The reason is that in either scenario, many people will still take a bus to STC. A direct subway connection to STC will attract more riders (but not dramatically more, as most of the potential riders are on transit already.