Bruce Power: New Nuclear Generation Capacity

[innsertnamehere]

Denmark's electricity consumption is 26% by Industry

Denmark Energy Information

www.enerdata.net

Ontario's electricity consumption is 16% by Industry

CER – Provincial and Territorial Energy Profiles – Ontario

Provincial and Territorial Energy Profiles – Ontario

www.cer-rec.gc.ca

That depends on population growth, lifestyle and transportation choices. Its not a given.



Incorrect again........ Far too many assumptions, not enough research.

British Columbia limits home size in its Agricultural zone (answer to the Greenbelt) - 500m2 / 5,381ft2

Frequently Asked Questions - Provincial Agricultural Land Commission

General Expand allCollapse all What is the purpose of Bill 52 – 2018 changes to the Agricultural Land Commission Act? These legislative changes are an important step in meeting the Minister of Agriculture’s mandate direction from the Premier to revitalize the Agricultural Land Reserve and the...

www.alc.gov.bc.ca

While I can't find a good western example on cars at first blush, China has such policies in 4 major cities:

The Impact of Purchase Restriction Policy on Car Ownership in China’s Four Major Cities

With the improvement of living standards, the demand for residents’ travel has grown rapidly. At present, China has surpassed the U.S. to become the world’s largest vehicle sales country. By the end of 2018, there had been over 200 million private passenger cars in China. Meanwhile, the increase...

www.hindawi.com

Those projections assume levels of population growth we do not need to choose, and make several other questionable assumptions.

China isn't western, being well documented as a communist single-party state which regularly limits personal freedoms, and zoning regulations (i.e. BC) which place maximum dwelling sizes on small areas of the province aren't consumption limits.

interesting to learn about Denmark's electric demand. I do note that the Canada link you provide identifies that Ontario's industrial energy demand is 35% of total energy demands however.

Ontario also ranks relatively low compared to the rest of Canada on per-capita energy consumption.

My understanding is that much of Canada's very high energy consumption rates come from the Oil Sands in Alberta.

Canada's per capita total energy consumption is about 327 gigajoules per capita per that link - compared to Ontario's 216 gigajoules per capita and Alberta's 951 gigajoules per capita (!!!)

according to your data, this puts Ontario's per-capita energy consumption similar to that of Belgium or Sweden.

If you want to reduce Canada's per-capita energy consumption, look to Fort McMurray, not that mansion down the street or that person who owns 3 cars.

 

[Northern Light]

China isn't western, being well documented as a communist single-party state which regularly limits personal freedoms, and zoning regulations (i.e. BC) which place maximum dwelling sizes on small areas of the province aren't consumption limits.

You specifically discussed consumption limits in reference to this - where I spoke of limiting house size and number of cars; and I noted that China is not 'the west' in my post, you needn't repeat that.

Quote:

And good luck with bans on home sizes and car ownership numbers - LOL. I don't think any western nation has such egregious limitations on personal freedom like consumption limits.

..........Canada link you provide identifies that Ontario's industrial energy demand is 35% of total energy demands however.

View attachment 490084

Ontario also ranks relatively low compared to the rest of Canada on per-capita energy consumption.

My understanding is that much of Canada's very high energy consumption rates come from the Oil Sands in Alberta.

Canada's per capita total energy consumption is about 327 petajoules per capita per that link - compared to Ontario's 216 petajoules per million residents and Alberta's 951 petajoules per million residents (!!!)

according to your data, this puts Ontario's per-capita energy consumption similar to that of Belgium or Sweden.

There's some data to be vetted here between national vs provincial, and getting up to date info as well.

That said, I'm still content to flat-line population growth, which would curtail demand.

****

Fundamentally we just disagree; you believe in unllimited growth in population and consumption and I think that's been killing the planet for decades and is grossly irresponsible.

*shrug*

 

[MrGoose]

Those projections assume levels of population growth we do not need to choose, and make several other questionable assumptions.

Good luck on that, because immigration is controlled by the Feds, not the provinces.

I can't say I'm at all excited by this.

While its certainly true that nuclear is cleaner than coal at the operating stage, the mining is every bit as bad, and disposal has no approved resolution.

This is entirely a matter of scale. Uranium Ore is many hundreds of times more energy dense than coal, or natural gas. And its waste is hundreds of times less voluminous than CO2. So it doesn't really matter that we produce nuclear waste, because our storage and disposal sites are the size of football fields and become much less radioactive after a few 100 years.

I really can't fathom endorsing something that is an incomplete thought; if you don't know how to manage the entire life-cycle of what you create (and charge accordingly), to me that's irresponsible.

I would prefer we focused on lowering the consumption levels of the rich and upper-middle-class, and promoting energy efficiency.

In order to de-carbonize we are going to have to electrify everything that is currently powered by fossil fuels (and or use electricity to suck CO2 out of the air). Considering that only 17% of our total energy use is electrical you are going to have to cut alot if you want to get by without drastically increasing electrical generation.
Images from here

 

[innsertnamehere]

Fundamentally we just disagree; you believe in unllimited growth in population and consumption and I think that's been killing the planet for decades and is grossly irresponsible.

*shrug*

I never said say such thing - I believe people have a right to live their best lives provided it's sustainable though. And in fact, you won't here a complaint from me if you want to discuss about curtailing Canada's rapid immigration gains as of late.

Also - as @MrGoose just commented - there isn't much way of getting around new energy generation, and massive amounts of it, unless Canada starts cropping it's population quick and basically destroys it's economy. Presuming the goal of electricification is maintained, there just isn't getting around it.

All those other things - flatlining population growth, consumption limits, huge demand reduction programs, aggressive energy storage and green energy projects, won't be enough to address electrification of the economy. The problem is immense and one which requires an immense solution.

 

[MrGoose]

Fundamentally we just disagree; you believe in unllimited growth in population and consumption and I think that's been killing the planet for decades and is grossly irresponsible.

*shrug*

Even without population growth, decarbonization requires drastic increases in electrical generation. Ontario lacks the geography that would allow for offshore wind (except maybe in the Hudson Bay) or vast deserts for solar and has used up most of the good hydro sites so ultimately Nuclear is going to be one of the most reliable ways to produce that electricity.

 

[Northern Light]

Good luck on that, because immigration is controlled by the Feds, not the provinces.

Not true, Quebec has clear control over how many immigrants it takes, and other provinces can exercise like influence if they wish, they just have to demand it.

This is entirely a matter of scale. Uranium Ore is many hundreds of times more energy dense than coal, or natural gas. And its waste is hundreds of times less voluminous than CO2. So it doesn't really matter that we produce nuclear waste, because our storage and disposal sites are the size of football fields and become much less radioactive after a few 100 years.

Again and for the last time, I have not argued for coal or gas at all; nor have I said shut down all nuclear. All of that is completely nonsensical argument.

I am arguing its possible to curtail demand to handle a material portion of any unavoidable growth from increased electrification; and that in combination with other other energy sources and lifestyle changes we don't need any significant net new power plants of any kind, particularly if we improve interchange with Quebec and Manitoba.

 

[nfitz]

It sounds about right. I wonder if they are going to be using CANDUs (the ACR went nowhere).

I hope so. The reports about the more traditional design reactor in Ukraine, where they seem to need to keep cooling it long after the reactor is shut down is highly unnerving.

Though I do wonder if this is necessary at this time. Could this be achieved with wind, solar, and battery storage. Yeah, it's a lot of windmills - but we are no where near exhausting that potential yet.

 

[Northern Light]

Even without population growth, decarbonization requires drastic increases in electrical generation. Ontario lacks the geography that would allow for offshore wind (except maybe in the Hudson Bay) or vast deserts for solar and has used up most of the good hydro sites so ultimately Nuclear is going to be one of the most reliable ways to produce that electricity.

Ontario gets 25% more sun each year than Germany, 2,000hours vs 1600 hours

Ontario has 3000mw of installed solar give or take.

Germany has generated as much as 40,000mw of solar at one time.

I think we have some room for growth.

Currently Ontario is about 1% solar, Germany is approaching 12%

 

[Bureaucromancer]

I hope so. The reports about the more traditional design reactor in Ukraine, where they seem to need to keep cooling it long after the reactor is shut down is highly unnerving.

Though I do wonder if this is necessary at this time. Could this be achieved with wind, solar, and battery storage. Yeah, it's a lot of windmills - but we are no where near exhausting that potential yet.

Oh please, the things operating in Ukraine are LITERALLY RBMKs. You know, as in fifty plus year old, Soviet designed, lacking containment. They have nothing whatsoever to do with modern reactors, or even older western designs.

 

[picard102]

and disposal has no approved resolution.

Approved by whom?

 

[innsertnamehere]

Ontario gets 25% more sun each year than Germany, 2,000hours vs 1600 hours

Ontario has 3000mw of installed solar give or take.

Germany has generated as much as 40,000mw of solar at one time.

I think we have some room for growth.

Currently Ontario is about 1% solar, Germany is approaching 12%

per capita, Germany's solar generation is equal to about 483mw per million residents. Great - lets get Ontario to that level of generation, and sure, lets even account for the more sun here and say we should build an effective capacity 25% larger than Germany's because it's 25% sunnier here (ignoring that most sun hours are in the summer when energy demands are lower).

Great - Ontario now has around 600mw of solar capacity per million residents - about 9,500mw total. That's a tripling of additional solar capacity, with about 6,500mw of capacity added to the grid.

So what do we do for the next 40,000mw of capacity we need by 2051, or the capacity needed when it's not sunny (i.e. cold winter nights)?

 

[MrGoose]

Ontario gets 25% more sun each year than Germany, 2,000hours vs 1600 hours

Ontario has 3000mw of installed solar give or take.

Germany has generated as much as 40,000mw of solar at one time.

I think we have some room for growth.

Currently Ontario is about 1% solar, Germany is approaching 12%

And residential German electricity is also about 4 times more expensive per kWH than residential Canadian electricity and 9 times more expensive for industry.

Canada electricity prices, December 2023 | GlobalPetrolPrices.com

Canada, December 2023: The price of electricity for households is CAD 0.000 per kWh or USD per kWh. This includes all components of the electricity bill such as the cost of power, distribution and taxes. For comparison, the average price of electricity in the world for that period is USD...

www.globalpetrolprices.com

Germany electricity prices, September 2023 | GlobalPetrolPrices.com

Germany, September 2023: The price of electricity for households is EUR 0.000 per kWh or USD per kWh. This includes all components of the electricity bill such as the cost of power, distribution and taxes. For comparison, the average price of electricity in the world for that period is USD...

www.globalpetrolprices.com

I don't think that following Germany's lead on scarcer more expensive electricity is a winning formula.

 

[Northern Light]

Approved by whom?

There is no permanent disposal site approved by regulatory authorities for Ontario's nuclear waste, all the current sites are at the plants and considered 'interim'.

**

This is the body charged with making a decision:

Home | NWMO

The Nuclear Waste Management Organization (NWMO) is responsible for designing and implementing Canada's plan for the safe, long-term management of used nuclear fuel.

www.nwmo.ca

They have currently deferred a final decision for the upteenth time, now claiming they will announce a preferred site in fall '24.

 

[Northern Light]

(ignoring that most sun hours are in the summer when energy demands are lower).

100% false.

From the website of Ontario's Independent Electricity System Operator:

"Electricity demand is largely driven by the weather. Ontario is a summer peaking province, meaning the highest times of peak demand tend to be during hot, humid days and/or during a heatwave."

Please post citations for all your claims on a go-forward basis. I do it, its not hard.

****

As to the rest of your statements above, made w/o citation as usual, I've already addressed them in multiple posts and I don't feel like I need to take more time away from work to do so again.

 

[nfitz]

Oh please, the things operating in Ukraine are LITERALLY RBMKs. You know, as in fifty plus year old, Soviet designed, lacking containment. They have nothing whatsoever to do with modern reactors, or even older western designs.

Containment is an improvement, but it's not everything. What about Fukushima?