^It’s hard to imagine how a rail line that parallels a six-lane freeway that is clogged seven days a week could *not* be successful....but.....One has to analyse that volume of auto traffic to find market segments that might actually be amenable to rail competition. It’s not the slam-dunk it may appear.
I’m convinced that Niagara-style “excursion” trains to Collingwood would sell out.... on weekends. It’s a dubious business case, however, to upgrade the line to allow GO service for just those few weekend trains (although the towns in the area would likely lobby fiercely for them on the grounds of business development)
The question becomes, is there a market for weekday service and do we want to grow that market. Extending Toronto-bound commuter service to Collingwood makes little sense in that a) it’s a wasteful commute b) we aren’t eager to intensify that area and c) it will cost more to build than it will add riders/revenue to the Barrie line.
It does make sense to have a bus network that connects to GO, but again downtown Toronto may not be the most popular end point. I do think the area is ripe for investment in transit.... but treating old rail lines as the logical connectors may not be a good way to plan that.
. Paul
I agree with much of what you have to say above..............but I would offer the following caveats
Collingwood and Wasaga as GTA getaway spots are only going to get busier; at the minimum, I would expect growth proportionate to the population growth of the Greater Golden Horseshoe.
That being the case, we're looking at a traffic increase of 50% or so over the next 30 years, more, if the destination offer actually improves and capacity is increased.
In that context, I think we can reasonably see the market for 5 or more trains on each weekend day, plus 1-2 trains on Fridays, without being in any way optimistic or ambitious.
We certainly don't want that destination growth to gobble all the farm land or natural space that remains.
That is best addressed by expanding the Green belt to envelop the areas; as well as some expansion of the relevant provincial parks nearby.
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I would then add, that we need to contemplate intermediate and/or non-GTA commuting points.
I don't foresee, nor do I desire, people routinely commuting from Wasaga/Collingwood to the GTA.
But I certainly can envision a commute to Barrie.
Providing one uses the correct rolling stock for such a trip, a 3-car emu/dmu or the like.............I think there may be a business case to be had there.
I'm not sure it would break-even, but we don't demand that of GO, of Public Transit or of Highways, so I don't think that's the fair ask.
The fair ask is a per-rider subsidy that isn't excessive when compared with its peer-group.
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When I look out 20 years, I make the assumption not only of high destination/resort growth, but also Barrie being home to a substantial university; its hospital being a full-blown teaching facility and the hub for central Ontario healthcare; and a hub for a region that will also post material growth.
I don't want to overstate the case for this investment either; in as much as there are a long list of investments that are more justified; sooner, based on conditions as they are today, rather than some point in the future.
But I do think the business case for this service may well emerge in the medium term.
