Baby, we got a bubble!?

[Toronto Rocks]

This is going to become a lot more common with rates being so much higher and condos at best sideways for the past few years.

Really, how do we know that the Vendor may be moving onto bigger and better things? Like a better job transfer out of the city, or got engaged and wants to buy a bigger place elseehere with their new partner. One motivated vendor does mean the market is crashing. We still have a huge shortage of supply which still exceeds demand. The title of this thread has been in place for 14 years. Maybe it should The Current State of the Real Estate Market?

 

[afransen]

Really, how do we know that the Vendor may be moving onto bigger and better things? Like a better job transfer out of the city, or got engaged and wants to buy a bigger place elseehere with their new partner. One motivated vendor does mean the marker is crashing. We still have a huge shortage of supply which still exceeds demand. The title of this thread has been in place for 14 years. Maybe it should The Current State of the Real Estate Market?

The dynamic of preconstruction seems to be shifting. It used to make sense to pay a big premium for preconstruction because the market will appreciate even more by the time the unit is delivered. Now that rates are higher and the resale market is not obligingly continuing to rise at 10% annually, many folks will be stuck not able to qualify for the mortgage to close and not able to assign at or above their precon price. These folks will be the bag holders.

 

[Toronto Rocks]

The dynamic of preconstruction seems to be shifting. It used to make sense to pay a big premium for preconstruction because the market will appreciate even more by the time the unit is delivered. Now that rates are higher and the resale market is not obligingly continuing to rise at 10% annually, many folks will be stuck not able to qualify for the mortgage to close and not able to assign at or above their precon price. These folks will be the bag holders.

Agreed that rates are higher now than a year ago, however one listing with a motivated vendor (regardless of the reason) does not constitute a trend. Let's see some solid data first, before we assume the pre-construction market may crash. It still comes down to supply vs. demard, regardless of the rates, demand is still greater than supply. Also many of the large developers have very deep pockets, so they can hold onto units (or rent them out for a year) so that they don't reduce their profit margins.

 

[slickpete83]

Public policy idea: require colleges to demonstrate where new students will live, as a condition of expanding their enrolment. If there is an existing housing shortage where they are located, they must build new residences before expanding enrolment. Colleges need to take responsibility.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1685257937885798400

https://twitter.com/x/status/1685258856752988162

 

[slickpete83]

at least we are #1 in something

 

[evandyk]

So close to Frankfurt? There is nothing going on in Frankfurt!

 

[slickpete83]

^Frankfurt is a financial hub of Germany , a business city

 

[evandyk]

I was joking a little. I’ve been to Frankfurt twice and it’s a financial capital, but fairly sleepy even compared to Toronto.

 

[Bojaxs]

Interesting how the increase in the number of under construction homes going up in flames recently seems to correlate with the BoC raising interest rates.

Police release video of Brampton arson suspect

Peel police have released a video of a suspect they say is responsible for a string of arsons in Brampton.

toronto.ctvnews.ca

 

[slickpete83]

OMG , can you imagine getting this surprise

 

[slickpete83]

coming soon in Toronto walk until you qualify lol..

 

[dusk]

I don't have solutions.

What I can say is that my cohort of friends and I are feeling crushed by the state of the housing market. Housing 50km in any direction is beyond any reasonable sense of affordability. It's created a sense of deep resentment, and even depression in many I know. It's probably an underreported facet of this whole thing but people really aren't doing well. It feels like people are punished for not being given a golden parachute by parents. For those of us that have worked hard to get to where we are and even have a decent job, there's little to no hope in buying anything. $1M+ townhomes 50km away from Toronto is beyond insanity to me. End rant I suppose.

 

[afransen]

I don't have solutions.

What I can say is that my cohort of friends and I are feeling crushed by the state of the housing market. Housing 50km in any direction is beyond any reasonable sense of affordability. It's created a sense of deep resentment, and even depression in many I know. It's probably an underreported facet of this whole thing but people really aren't doing well. It feels like people are punished for not being given a golden parachute by parents. For those of us that have worked hard to get to where we are and even have a decent job, there's little to no hope in buying anything. $1M+ townhomes 50km away from Toronto is beyond insanity to me. End rant I suppose.

Townhouses can be had for $750-800k in Mississauga, at least.

 

[TheKingEast]

Prices coming down....Just need to have a good amount of cash on hand as rates are killer.

 

[slickpete83]

Ron Bulter of Bulter Mortgage is one funny insightful boomer when it comes to housing, even he agrees young people are screwed and we have a real problem

https://twitter.com/x/status/1679186431632179201