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Baby, we got a bubble!?
- Thread starter simuls
- Start date
interested
Senior Member
I'm sure Condo George was referring to the Prime Rate. I bet Condo George will morph into Mortgage George when the condo market inevitably corrects,
Home Sweet Home
“The continuing shortages of housing inventory are driving the price gains. There is no evidence of bubbles popping.” – David Lereah – Chief Economist for National Association of Realtors – 2005
“We’ve never had a decline in house prices on a nationwide basis. So, what I think what is more likely is that house prices will slow, maybe stabilize, might slow consumption spending a bit. I don’t think it’s gonna drive the economy too far from its full employment path, though.” – Ben Bernanke – 2005
“House prices have risen by nearly 25 percent over the past two years. Although speculative activity has increased in some areas, at a national level these price increases largely reflect strong economic fundamentals.” - Ben Bernanke – 2005
Let's be fair guys. Alot of people besides BB got it wrong. Unfortunately, BB is minding the chicken koop now so lets hope that he gets things more right this time. I for one can admit that I shockingly have made some wrong calls too.
KA1
Senior Member
Finally, it has happened.
Link to an assignment listing for a unit in AURA
http://www.remaxcondosplus.com/property.php?propid=EXC4884&agent1=james
Listing does not indicate parking ( $ 30,000) is included. Most of the smaller units have a small storage in the unit itself. It comes to $ 610 sq.ft -- about the same going rate for units in RoCP1 & 2.
Purchase agreement stipulates that no unit can be listed as an assignment till such time the construction has reached 1 level above ground and any violation of this clause with automatically result in the purchase agreement being cancelled.
I guess in this environment, saving one's skin is more important.
Let's see if Canderel takes any action in this respect.
Link to an assignment listing for a unit in AURA
http://www.remaxcondosplus.com/property.php?propid=EXC4884&agent1=james
Listing does not indicate parking ( $ 30,000) is included. Most of the smaller units have a small storage in the unit itself. It comes to $ 610 sq.ft -- about the same going rate for units in RoCP1 & 2.
Purchase agreement stipulates that no unit can be listed as an assignment till such time the construction has reached 1 level above ground and any violation of this clause with automatically result in the purchase agreement being cancelled.
I guess in this environment, saving one's skin is more important.
Let's see if Canderel takes any action in this respect.
Last edited:
interested
Senior Member
I doubt there is parking or they would mention it. Perhaps it is an agent who has it from VIP sales with assignment clause and therefore can advertise it. He may have a different exclusion clause in his assignment.
Canderel may tell him to stop advertising. However, as you say, someone may no longer qualify with new rules for 25% down as an investor or life circumstance change. I gather you are saying this would be essentially assigning at the cost the individual got the unit at, correct? Was Aura originally selling lower floors at $600/sq. ft. when it first went for sale or did it in fact go cheaper than that originally?
Canderel may tell him to stop advertising. However, as you say, someone may no longer qualify with new rules for 25% down as an investor or life circumstance change. I gather you are saying this would be essentially assigning at the cost the individual got the unit at, correct? Was Aura originally selling lower floors at $600/sq. ft. when it first went for sale or did it in fact go cheaper than that originally?
interested
Senior Member
From the Globe and Mail on line:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...o-market-hits-the-down-button/article1673760/
Toronto condo market hits the ‘down’ button
Though prices remain firm, sales have slowed and supply is surging in Canada’s condo capital
Real estate: Canadian housing market cools
Article Comments (56) Steve Ladurantaye Real Estate Reporter
From Monday's Globe and Mail
Published on Sunday, Aug. 15, 2010 7:50PM EDT
Last updated on Sunday, Aug. 15, 2010 8:19PM EDT
The developer thought it was a brilliant idea: Build a penthouse on top of an existing condo building in a chic Toronto neighbourhood to take advantage of the city’s insatiable lust for expensive real estate.
For $1.8-million, the new owner could walk into a brand new, 1,800-square-foot condo designed to her specifications. That was the idea, anyway. But the listing in prime Rosedale hit the market in February, just as sales were beginning to slow for real estate of all kinds, and no one was interested in the unit its agent has dubbed “Project Perch.â€
The property is still for sale, but it no longer comes with an actual condo. Before a single brick was in place, the developer gave up and decided to try a different approach. For $599,000, a prospective buyer now gets blueprints, a stack of planning approvals and a list of local builders who can finish the project on the cheap.
“My gut instinct tells me the condo market is skewered right now,†said Paul Johnston of Right At Home Realty Brokerage, the listing agent on the project. “It’s been a hell of a year. At the beginning, we finally had buyers after a year of banging our heads on the wall looking for them. But I think this year’s deals have already been done.â€
Following a spring marked by record sales and prices, growing evidence suggests that the air is finally beginning to go out of Toronto’s remarkably resilient condo market. The debate in real estate circles is now this: is it a temporary lull or the harbinger of a more serious decline?
The outlook for one the key economic generators in Canada’s largest city – a business that produces large numbers of construction and service jobs – hangs on that question. Toronto is North America’s new condo capital: Last year, developers completed about 16,000 units, twice as many as in New York and three times as many as Vancouver. As such, it’s closely watched as a barometer for the sector.
In July, the picture turned negative. The Toronto Real Estate Board said last week the number of sales in the city fell 25 per cent compared with June. While prices have yet to waver, anecdotal evidence of a slowdown is rife. Bay Street office workers point out that many of the newly opened condo towers in the downtown core appear to be devoid of all signs of human life.
Meanwhile, the supply of condos is surging. In the second quarter, buyers had a record 10,997 units to choose from. Another 34,089 units are under construction. Eighty-eight per cent of those units have already been sold, but another 5,000 units are expected to begin construction in the next three months.
An estimated 40 per cent of Toronto condos are owned by investors – many of them from overseas – who often buy multiple units and rent them out. That’s in contrast to the rest of the residential property market, which is dominated by people who live in what they own.
If the market were to weaken, and those investors disappeared, new projects would find it much harder to meet their sales and financing goals. Canadian banks typically require that a developer presell at least 70 per cent of the units in each building before the bank hands over any money.
In a worst case, investors might choose to cut their losses and rush to sell their condos rather than stick around and hope for a gradual recovery.
But not everyone is convinced that a downturn would spark a stampede to the exits.
“You hear about how so much of the market is made up of investors, and to me that’s not a scary thing,†said George Carras, president of RealNet Canada Inc., a tracker of real estate data. “These people aren’t investing to lose money; they are patient and plan to stick around.â€
Condo prices have performed far better than equities in recent years, according to an index compiled by Mr. Carras’s company. And he believes the market’s fundamentals remain strong. Toronto needs about 40,000 housing units a year to keep up with immigration, he said. Restrictive building policies have made it difficult to build new communities of single-family homes within the city, forcing developers to build up instead of out.
But while demand might be there, it’s unclear when the market will bump against the limits of what people can afford. Prices have run up dramatically over the past few years. In 2003, new condos in Toronto sold at $294 per square foot on average. Last quarter, it was $565, or 92-per-cent higher. As unemployment remains high and consumer debt sits at the highest level on record, worries grow that the market is no longer tilted toward the smart investor.
“Condo owners shouldn’t assume they’ll always be able to sell their units at a profit,†said Kurt Rosentreter, a senior financial adviser at Manulife Securities Inc., who has been warning his clients off the asset class for the past year despite surging prices. “You see the big price gains, but you have to wonder about a breaking point – and that would be dangerous for everyone.â€
So far, prices are holding firm: In the second quarter, the average selling price in Toronto gained 1 per cent to $331,000. And despite slowing sales, developers are asking more for less. The average asking price for the 23 projects launched in the last three months was $565 a square foot, a 12-per-cent increase from the same time last year.
“The big concern is we’re continuing to push pricing in the new sale market, and as you look at the rents the investors are able to charge, they certainly aren’t moving higr at the same rate,†said Ben Myers, executive vice-president of tracking firm Urbanation. “You have to wonder what happens next.â€
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...o-market-hits-the-down-button/article1673760/
Toronto condo market hits the ‘down’ button
Though prices remain firm, sales have slowed and supply is surging in Canada’s condo capital
Real estate: Canadian housing market cools
Article Comments (56) Steve Ladurantaye Real Estate Reporter
From Monday's Globe and Mail
Published on Sunday, Aug. 15, 2010 7:50PM EDT
Last updated on Sunday, Aug. 15, 2010 8:19PM EDT
The developer thought it was a brilliant idea: Build a penthouse on top of an existing condo building in a chic Toronto neighbourhood to take advantage of the city’s insatiable lust for expensive real estate.
For $1.8-million, the new owner could walk into a brand new, 1,800-square-foot condo designed to her specifications. That was the idea, anyway. But the listing in prime Rosedale hit the market in February, just as sales were beginning to slow for real estate of all kinds, and no one was interested in the unit its agent has dubbed “Project Perch.â€
The property is still for sale, but it no longer comes with an actual condo. Before a single brick was in place, the developer gave up and decided to try a different approach. For $599,000, a prospective buyer now gets blueprints, a stack of planning approvals and a list of local builders who can finish the project on the cheap.
“My gut instinct tells me the condo market is skewered right now,†said Paul Johnston of Right At Home Realty Brokerage, the listing agent on the project. “It’s been a hell of a year. At the beginning, we finally had buyers after a year of banging our heads on the wall looking for them. But I think this year’s deals have already been done.â€
Following a spring marked by record sales and prices, growing evidence suggests that the air is finally beginning to go out of Toronto’s remarkably resilient condo market. The debate in real estate circles is now this: is it a temporary lull or the harbinger of a more serious decline?
The outlook for one the key economic generators in Canada’s largest city – a business that produces large numbers of construction and service jobs – hangs on that question. Toronto is North America’s new condo capital: Last year, developers completed about 16,000 units, twice as many as in New York and three times as many as Vancouver. As such, it’s closely watched as a barometer for the sector.
In July, the picture turned negative. The Toronto Real Estate Board said last week the number of sales in the city fell 25 per cent compared with June. While prices have yet to waver, anecdotal evidence of a slowdown is rife. Bay Street office workers point out that many of the newly opened condo towers in the downtown core appear to be devoid of all signs of human life.
Meanwhile, the supply of condos is surging. In the second quarter, buyers had a record 10,997 units to choose from. Another 34,089 units are under construction. Eighty-eight per cent of those units have already been sold, but another 5,000 units are expected to begin construction in the next three months.
An estimated 40 per cent of Toronto condos are owned by investors – many of them from overseas – who often buy multiple units and rent them out. That’s in contrast to the rest of the residential property market, which is dominated by people who live in what they own.
If the market were to weaken, and those investors disappeared, new projects would find it much harder to meet their sales and financing goals. Canadian banks typically require that a developer presell at least 70 per cent of the units in each building before the bank hands over any money.
In a worst case, investors might choose to cut their losses and rush to sell their condos rather than stick around and hope for a gradual recovery.
But not everyone is convinced that a downturn would spark a stampede to the exits.
“You hear about how so much of the market is made up of investors, and to me that’s not a scary thing,†said George Carras, president of RealNet Canada Inc., a tracker of real estate data. “These people aren’t investing to lose money; they are patient and plan to stick around.â€
Condo prices have performed far better than equities in recent years, according to an index compiled by Mr. Carras’s company. And he believes the market’s fundamentals remain strong. Toronto needs about 40,000 housing units a year to keep up with immigration, he said. Restrictive building policies have made it difficult to build new communities of single-family homes within the city, forcing developers to build up instead of out.
But while demand might be there, it’s unclear when the market will bump against the limits of what people can afford. Prices have run up dramatically over the past few years. In 2003, new condos in Toronto sold at $294 per square foot on average. Last quarter, it was $565, or 92-per-cent higher. As unemployment remains high and consumer debt sits at the highest level on record, worries grow that the market is no longer tilted toward the smart investor.
“Condo owners shouldn’t assume they’ll always be able to sell their units at a profit,†said Kurt Rosentreter, a senior financial adviser at Manulife Securities Inc., who has been warning his clients off the asset class for the past year despite surging prices. “You see the big price gains, but you have to wonder about a breaking point – and that would be dangerous for everyone.â€
So far, prices are holding firm: In the second quarter, the average selling price in Toronto gained 1 per cent to $331,000. And despite slowing sales, developers are asking more for less. The average asking price for the 23 projects launched in the last three months was $565 a square foot, a 12-per-cent increase from the same time last year.
“The big concern is we’re continuing to push pricing in the new sale market, and as you look at the rents the investors are able to charge, they certainly aren’t moving higr at the same rate,†said Ben Myers, executive vice-president of tracking firm Urbanation. “You have to wonder what happens next.â€
KA1
Senior Member
Unit is listed for sale at $ 610 sq.
in AURA, units under 700 sq.ft were not eligible to bujy a parking
In early March 2008, VIP agentss were selling units at $ 500 sq. A few weeks later, during an event for current owners of RoCP1 and RoCP2, units were sold at $ 550 sq. ft.
To protect the image of the development, Canderel had put in the clause about no assignment listed till construction has reached a specific level. I presume, this condition applies to VIP agents as well.
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cdr108
Senior Member
a good laugh, or crystal ball into the future ...
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news...city-that-hardly-knows-itself/article1664968/
Toronto without real-estate woes is a city that hardly knows itself
Dinner parties fall silent, and CBC execs move back into the Annex
Mark Schatzker
From Saturday's Globe and Mail
Published on Friday, Aug. 06, 2010 6:18PM EDT
Last updated on Wednesday, Aug. 11, 2010 12:07PM EDT
“Condo sales in Toronto drop for first time in 16 years†– Globe and Mail, Aug. 3, 2010
August 3 – Toronto Condo sales drop for the first time in 16 years.
August 5 – July sales are down 35 per cent from the previous year.
August 18 – A developer unveils a condo on King West with units so small that buyers can only fit into the model suite by undressing to their underwear. The developer suffers panic attacks as the building takes an unprecedented 40 days to sell out.
September 16 – After listing a termite-infested shed in Little Portugal “within walking distance of vibrant Ossington!†for $1.2-million, an agent is beaten by a mob of enraged hipsters whose dreams of home ownership have been quashed.
October 5 – At a packed open house in Seaton Village for a newly renovated three-storey Edwardian semi with en suite marble bathroom, prospective buyers all at once snap out of their collective euphoric daze and begin noticing the shoddy workmanship. A condo-renting accountant yells out, “The plastering looks like it was done by a drunken toddler!†A mother of two shouts, “Wow, they really splurged on these Home Depot cabinets.†A middle-aged man knocks on a hollow-sounding wall and says, “Would it have killed them to insulate?â€
October 25 – Governor of the Bank of Canada Mark Carney pushes interest rates up 10 basis points and enrolment in the city’s private schools drops by more than half.
December 2 – Across the GTA, house flippers move from moral bankruptcy to financial bankruptcy and apply to the federal government for stimulus funding.
January 10 – Rather than take part in yet another demoralizing bidding war, buyers burn a Leslieville detached three-bedroom to the ground and turn the lot into Toronto’s first urban farm.
January 14 – Toronto Life magazine cancels its real-estate coverage so it can focus on gossip.
January 22 – Parts and Labour, a former hardware store turned upscale Parkdale restaurant that grows its own heirloom carrots and radishes, is turned back into a hardware store.
January 30 – A grassroots bid to change an upscale section of Greektown into “The Jackman School District District†is quietly withdrawn.
February 5 – Buying in The Junction is no longer something people brag about.
February 18 – Bay Street bank CEOs out-earn Toronto real-estate agents for the first time since 1996.
March 2 – An overpriced Riverdale semi causes the city’s first anti-bidding war, in which buyers tell the listing agent how much they would have to be paid to move into that “overpriced shoebox.†A thirty-something couple puts in the winning bid at -$682,500.
March 12 – Roncesvalles Village changes its name back to North Parkdale.
March 28 – CBC executives can once again afford to buy in The Annex.
April 5 – At a dinner party in Leaside, a forty-something brunette says, “So my neighbours are listing their house next week. What do you think they’ll get?†An awkward silence descends. Her husband changes the subject to RRSPs and for the first time in decades, real estate is not talked about at a Toronto dinner party.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news...city-that-hardly-knows-itself/article1664968/
Toronto without real-estate woes is a city that hardly knows itself
Dinner parties fall silent, and CBC execs move back into the Annex
Mark Schatzker
From Saturday's Globe and Mail
Published on Friday, Aug. 06, 2010 6:18PM EDT
Last updated on Wednesday, Aug. 11, 2010 12:07PM EDT
“Condo sales in Toronto drop for first time in 16 years†– Globe and Mail, Aug. 3, 2010
August 3 – Toronto Condo sales drop for the first time in 16 years.
August 5 – July sales are down 35 per cent from the previous year.
August 18 – A developer unveils a condo on King West with units so small that buyers can only fit into the model suite by undressing to their underwear. The developer suffers panic attacks as the building takes an unprecedented 40 days to sell out.
September 16 – After listing a termite-infested shed in Little Portugal “within walking distance of vibrant Ossington!†for $1.2-million, an agent is beaten by a mob of enraged hipsters whose dreams of home ownership have been quashed.
October 5 – At a packed open house in Seaton Village for a newly renovated three-storey Edwardian semi with en suite marble bathroom, prospective buyers all at once snap out of their collective euphoric daze and begin noticing the shoddy workmanship. A condo-renting accountant yells out, “The plastering looks like it was done by a drunken toddler!†A mother of two shouts, “Wow, they really splurged on these Home Depot cabinets.†A middle-aged man knocks on a hollow-sounding wall and says, “Would it have killed them to insulate?â€
October 25 – Governor of the Bank of Canada Mark Carney pushes interest rates up 10 basis points and enrolment in the city’s private schools drops by more than half.
December 2 – Across the GTA, house flippers move from moral bankruptcy to financial bankruptcy and apply to the federal government for stimulus funding.
January 10 – Rather than take part in yet another demoralizing bidding war, buyers burn a Leslieville detached three-bedroom to the ground and turn the lot into Toronto’s first urban farm.
January 14 – Toronto Life magazine cancels its real-estate coverage so it can focus on gossip.
January 22 – Parts and Labour, a former hardware store turned upscale Parkdale restaurant that grows its own heirloom carrots and radishes, is turned back into a hardware store.
January 30 – A grassroots bid to change an upscale section of Greektown into “The Jackman School District District†is quietly withdrawn.
February 5 – Buying in The Junction is no longer something people brag about.
February 18 – Bay Street bank CEOs out-earn Toronto real-estate agents for the first time since 1996.
March 2 – An overpriced Riverdale semi causes the city’s first anti-bidding war, in which buyers tell the listing agent how much they would have to be paid to move into that “overpriced shoebox.†A thirty-something couple puts in the winning bid at -$682,500.
March 12 – Roncesvalles Village changes its name back to North Parkdale.
March 28 – CBC executives can once again afford to buy in The Annex.
April 5 – At a dinner party in Leaside, a forty-something brunette says, “So my neighbours are listing their house next week. What do you think they’ll get?†An awkward silence descends. Her husband changes the subject to RRSPs and for the first time in decades, real estate is not talked about at a Toronto dinner party.
interested
Senior Member
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...y/canadian-home-sales-sink-30/article1674181/
Steve Ladurantaye
Globe and Mail Update
Published on Monday, Aug. 16, 2010 9:13AM EDT
Last updated on Monday, Aug. 16, 2010 1:02PM EDT
Canada’s housing market stalled in July as sales sank 30 per cent from the same month a year earlier, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Monday.
Prices edged up 1 per cent from July 2009, though slipped 3.5 per cent from June, with sellers finding far fewer buyers willing to step into the market.
The average resale price nationally was $330,351, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association. In June, the price was $342,662.
“We expect a downward correction of nearly 10 per cent in the monthly average prices, followed by several years of stagnation of price growth at the rate of inflation, in order to bring Canadian house prices back to balance,” TD Bank economist Grant Bishop said.
The country's largest cities led the annual decline, with Vancouver posting a 45-per-cent drop in sales.
CREA, a trade association that governs the country's 100,000 real estate agents, attributed the decline to an increased number of sales earlier in the year and said the “outlook for economic and job growth remains generally positive nationally“The soft sales figures we're seeing right now can be attributed in part to accelerated home purchases earlier in the year,” CREA president Georges Pahud said in a statement. “Activity may remain at lower levels for some time, but ultimately we expect a more stable market to emerge, with demand coming back into line with economic fundamentals.”
Earlier this month, CREA lowered its forecast for the year, saying sales would post an annual decline of 1.2 per cent compared to 2009, which saw the market rebound with an unprecedented intensity from the recession. It also forecast prices would end the year at $331,600 - slightly higher than July's average.
Economists suggest many Canadians bought houses earlier in the year than they would have otherwise to take advantage of low interest rates. This caused huge gains in the first half of the year, but is expected to mean a lull as the year winds down.
“While the softening in sales is very real, we continue to view it as a giveback (a big giveback, admittedly) to the surge in sales in the first half of the year,” BMO said in a research note. “Anyone who wanted to buy a home this year seems to have done so already. Still, note that prices remain a bit above year-ago levels in all major cities, and it’s tough to see the market spinning lower amid a sturdy employment backdrop and a still very low interest rate environment.”
The introduction of the Harmonized Sales Tax in British Columbia and Ontario also contributed to the slower sales, with buyers trying to beat the July introduction
even though it didn’t have a direct connection with resale homes.
While existing homes sales are not directly taxed, they could still experience an outsized pullback during that month as some previously untaxed housing-related services now fall under the HST,” Mr. Bishop said.
“Additionally, the anecdote is that a certain of amount of new home buying was moved-forward by mistaken homebuyer perceptions that purchases ahead of HST implementation would save the tax, ignoring that the pre-HST rush may have actually pushed up prices, with consequent give-back in July.
CREA said the number of listings fell by the most in a decade in July at 7.2 per cent, as homeowners opted to stay put rather than sell into a weaker market. Since April, new listings have fallen 17.5 per cent, which the organization said will help lead to a “balance between supply and demand and temper home price volatility.”
The seasonally adjusted number of months of inventory in July was 7.3 months. That's how long it would take to sell every listed house at the current pace of sales, and it's at its highest level since March 2009.
From Globe and Mail:
Sales and Prices actually dropped. Up 1% year on year but down 3.5% from last month so by next month even year on year data will show declines as present trend continues.
Article suggests "years of drops followed by no growth other than inflation." Even this may be more positive than reality. I would not be suprised to see the drop and absolute stagnation with prices staying the same for 3-4 years until inflation starts getting factored in.
Of course, alot of us on this forum believe this forecast. I note CREA still suggesting that outlook still remains generally positive. Just like in the US they will stick to this until it is absolutely untenable because to say anything but would be suicide for their members.
As well, inventory is now 7.3 months, the highests since the bottoming of prices in March 2009. As product hits,and if more people decide/have to list, then I think it is starting to appear that we will retest shortly the 2008/2009 lows
Steve Ladurantaye
Globe and Mail Update
Published on Monday, Aug. 16, 2010 9:13AM EDT
Last updated on Monday, Aug. 16, 2010 1:02PM EDT
Canada’s housing market stalled in July as sales sank 30 per cent from the same month a year earlier, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Monday.
Prices edged up 1 per cent from July 2009, though slipped 3.5 per cent from June, with sellers finding far fewer buyers willing to step into the market.
The average resale price nationally was $330,351, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association. In June, the price was $342,662.
“We expect a downward correction of nearly 10 per cent in the monthly average prices, followed by several years of stagnation of price growth at the rate of inflation, in order to bring Canadian house prices back to balance,” TD Bank economist Grant Bishop said.
The country's largest cities led the annual decline, with Vancouver posting a 45-per-cent drop in sales.
CREA, a trade association that governs the country's 100,000 real estate agents, attributed the decline to an increased number of sales earlier in the year and said the “outlook for economic and job growth remains generally positive nationally“The soft sales figures we're seeing right now can be attributed in part to accelerated home purchases earlier in the year,” CREA president Georges Pahud said in a statement. “Activity may remain at lower levels for some time, but ultimately we expect a more stable market to emerge, with demand coming back into line with economic fundamentals.”
Earlier this month, CREA lowered its forecast for the year, saying sales would post an annual decline of 1.2 per cent compared to 2009, which saw the market rebound with an unprecedented intensity from the recession. It also forecast prices would end the year at $331,600 - slightly higher than July's average.
Economists suggest many Canadians bought houses earlier in the year than they would have otherwise to take advantage of low interest rates. This caused huge gains in the first half of the year, but is expected to mean a lull as the year winds down.
“While the softening in sales is very real, we continue to view it as a giveback (a big giveback, admittedly) to the surge in sales in the first half of the year,” BMO said in a research note. “Anyone who wanted to buy a home this year seems to have done so already. Still, note that prices remain a bit above year-ago levels in all major cities, and it’s tough to see the market spinning lower amid a sturdy employment backdrop and a still very low interest rate environment.”
The introduction of the Harmonized Sales Tax in British Columbia and Ontario also contributed to the slower sales, with buyers trying to beat the July introduction
even though it didn’t have a direct connection with resale homes.
While existing homes sales are not directly taxed, they could still experience an outsized pullback during that month as some previously untaxed housing-related services now fall under the HST,” Mr. Bishop said.
“Additionally, the anecdote is that a certain of amount of new home buying was moved-forward by mistaken homebuyer perceptions that purchases ahead of HST implementation would save the tax, ignoring that the pre-HST rush may have actually pushed up prices, with consequent give-back in July.
CREA said the number of listings fell by the most in a decade in July at 7.2 per cent, as homeowners opted to stay put rather than sell into a weaker market. Since April, new listings have fallen 17.5 per cent, which the organization said will help lead to a “balance between supply and demand and temper home price volatility.”
The seasonally adjusted number of months of inventory in July was 7.3 months. That's how long it would take to sell every listed house at the current pace of sales, and it's at its highest level since March 2009.
From Globe and Mail:
Sales and Prices actually dropped. Up 1% year on year but down 3.5% from last month so by next month even year on year data will show declines as present trend continues.
Article suggests "years of drops followed by no growth other than inflation." Even this may be more positive than reality. I would not be suprised to see the drop and absolute stagnation with prices staying the same for 3-4 years until inflation starts getting factored in.
Of course, alot of us on this forum believe this forecast. I note CREA still suggesting that outlook still remains generally positive. Just like in the US they will stick to this until it is absolutely untenable because to say anything but would be suicide for their members.
As well, inventory is now 7.3 months, the highests since the bottoming of prices in March 2009. As product hits,and if more people decide/have to list, then I think it is starting to appear that we will retest shortly the 2008/2009 lows
Last edited:
Condo George
Active Member
daveto
Active Member
August mid month sales are 2,732 at $413k.
http://www.torontorealestateboard.com/consumer_info/market_news/news2010/pdf/nr_mid_month_0810.pdf
Avg sales are usually 7k for august, with the lowest at 6300 in 2008, so sales are about 20% below the avg. New listings are also at about 20% below the avg (usually 12k full month, and we're on track for 9.6k full month). The price drop from the previous month is consistent with seasonal drops from prior years. Months of inventory isn't explicitly stated, but is likely close to 4 months.
Looking at prior yrs data from guava, it continues to look like we'll need to wait until the end of the fall before it becomes clearer whether things have truly changed, or whether we are simply seeing typical variances.
http://guava.ca/
As a bear, I feel obliged to note that prices in Aug 2008 were at $364k, so they are up 13.6% since then (10% net of inflation). We should have recessions more often.
http://www.torontorealestateboard.com/consumer_info/market_news/news2010/pdf/nr_mid_month_0810.pdf
Avg sales are usually 7k for august, with the lowest at 6300 in 2008, so sales are about 20% below the avg. New listings are also at about 20% below the avg (usually 12k full month, and we're on track for 9.6k full month). The price drop from the previous month is consistent with seasonal drops from prior years. Months of inventory isn't explicitly stated, but is likely close to 4 months.
Looking at prior yrs data from guava, it continues to look like we'll need to wait until the end of the fall before it becomes clearer whether things have truly changed, or whether we are simply seeing typical variances.
http://guava.ca/
As a bear, I feel obliged to note that prices in Aug 2008 were at $364k, so they are up 13.6% since then (10% net of inflation). We should have recessions more often.
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jingooo
New Member
Toronto housing slump deepens
Globe and Mail Update
Published on Tuesday, Aug. 17, 2010 12:14PM EDT
Last updated on Tuesday, Aug. 17, 2010 12:46PM EDT
The slump in housing sales accelerated in August, the Greater Toronto Real Estate Board said.
Sales in Toronto were down 29 per cent in the first two weeks of August compared to last year. The average sale price was $412,934, 3.5 per cent lower than mid-July.
The number of new listings were 8 per cent lower than last year at 4,770.
“It makes sense that the number of transactions has dipped over the past few months in comparison to last year's record results,” said board president Bill Johnston.
Each of the country's 101 real estate boards maintains its own sales data, and can release it at any time. The Toronto board - the largest in the country - updates its stats every two weeks.
The Canadian Real Estate Association released its monthly compilation of all the board's data earlier this week, showing sales sank 30 per cent from the same month a year earlier. Nationally, prices slipped 3.5 per cent from June
The average resale price nationally was $330,351, according to CREA. In June, the price was $342,662.
Economists suggest many Canadians bought houses earlier in the year than they would have otherwise to take advantage of low interest rates and to beat the introduction of new taxes in British Columbia and Ontario. This caused abnormal gains in the first half of the year, but is expected to mean a lull as the year winds down.
Globe and Mail Update
Published on Tuesday, Aug. 17, 2010 12:14PM EDT
Last updated on Tuesday, Aug. 17, 2010 12:46PM EDT
The slump in housing sales accelerated in August, the Greater Toronto Real Estate Board said.
Sales in Toronto were down 29 per cent in the first two weeks of August compared to last year. The average sale price was $412,934, 3.5 per cent lower than mid-July.
The number of new listings were 8 per cent lower than last year at 4,770.
“It makes sense that the number of transactions has dipped over the past few months in comparison to last year's record results,” said board president Bill Johnston.
Each of the country's 101 real estate boards maintains its own sales data, and can release it at any time. The Toronto board - the largest in the country - updates its stats every two weeks.
The Canadian Real Estate Association released its monthly compilation of all the board's data earlier this week, showing sales sank 30 per cent from the same month a year earlier. Nationally, prices slipped 3.5 per cent from June
The average resale price nationally was $330,351, according to CREA. In June, the price was $342,662.
Economists suggest many Canadians bought houses earlier in the year than they would have otherwise to take advantage of low interest rates and to beat the introduction of new taxes in British Columbia and Ontario. This caused abnormal gains in the first half of the year, but is expected to mean a lull as the year winds down.
Condo George
Active Member
Resale inventory for lease is being eaten up at Maple Leaf Square, Luna, Panorama, West Harbour. Very limited supply = happy investor!
simuls
Senior Member
Honestly George, that's great news and will help this market if it continues. Although I am a bear right now for the condo market (and predict right here and now that Bisha will be a monumental disaster) and think your predictions will be massively incorrect, it's not something I wish for and in fact sincerely hope I'm wrong!
interested
Senior Member
At what prices George. I agree it helps investors if there are adequate renters. However, do the numbers justify$600/sq. ft. prices or more? For those who bought at$500/sq. ft. does it make sense as well. Could you perhaps give us some idea of the price(when bought) and the rents received so we can figure out approximate returns or provide us with this information?
Thanks.
Condo George
Active Member
Maple leaf square launched at $400 psf on the ground, now only 3 units left for rent under $2300 in both towers and a total of 26 for rent from $1500 to $7500 out of 900 units, folks the rental numbers are just amazing.
Luna was less than $350's psf at launch, Panorama I did not promote, West Harbour was also less than $400 psf
I work Bay and College, Yonge and Bloor, Yonge to CNE gates south of Front only. This is the area I track and I invest and sell in. If we make it past 2010 and supply gets eaten up, I am calling for a strong spring of 2011. By that time, I hope to have a coffee with simulus
Luna was less than $350's psf at launch, Panorama I did not promote, West Harbour was also less than $400 psf
I work Bay and College, Yonge and Bloor, Yonge to CNE gates south of Front only. This is the area I track and I invest and sell in. If we make it past 2010 and supply gets eaten up, I am calling for a strong spring of 2011. By that time, I hope to have a coffee with simulus