Baby, we got a bubble!?

[cdr108]

However, this is a tangent off the larger point, which is that the percentage of units kept empty intentionally empty for long periods of time by Chinese speculators in Canada is low to begin with. The numbers that get thrown around (like 23% or whatever) are simply misrepresentations by undereducated members of the press and it's quite unfortunate that so many people choose to believe that misinformation.

percentage of units kept empty is a newer topic.

however, former discussions have been centred around what percentage of units sold are/were to investors.
the above article cites CMHCs numbers, which have been noted as being underrepresented due to the flawed analysis and lack of thorough data as opposed to information CRA asks developers for their sales lists.

it also references CMHCs report from December 2013 (that also raised questions) that found just 23 per cent of Toronto’s condo stock was being rented out in 2012 by investor-owners.


then they refer to CIBC deputy-chief economist Benjamin Tal:
“When you talk to developers in the GTA and even in many pockets in Vancouver, they tell you that 70 per cent of (condo) presales and close to 50 to 60 per cent of final sales are by investors.”


The “picture that is emerging from this survey is much more positive than the popular perception,” said Tal, calling the 17.1 investor figure “much smaller than expected.”

 

[DearSummer]

One concern is that the survey of 42,426 households comes from a CMHC database of condo renters and owners in existing and often older buildings.

It doesn’t shed any light on the extent of foreign investment — the number of wealthy people from areas such as Asia, Russia and the Middle East who are simply looking to park their money in offshore real estate.

Nor does it include investors who own a condo in Toronto or Vancouver, but don’t live in those cities.

Most critically, it doesn’t include the mass of buyers who’ve purchased suites since the explosion of condo construction in the last five to seven years, often in hopes of making money.

Incredibly useless study when you consider the above caveats. Is CMHC:

a) willfully turning the blind eye
b) incompetent
c) trying their best to gather data on an area that is notoriously hard to track

Hard to say, but I'll go with d) all of the above.

 

[DearSummer]

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...mortgages/article20020333/#dashboard/follows/

 

[DearSummer]

edit

 

[BMyers]

Just in case some of you are really bored on a Friday, here are a few articles and blogs to read:

http://fortressrealdevelopments.com/news/what-canadian-housing-bears-dont-want-you-to-know/

http://blog.reincanada.com/how-to-assess-condo-investments-using-real-data or with pictures here: http://magazine.reincanada.com/2014_Issue6/#p=36

http://fortressrealdevelopments.com/news/size-definitely-matters-looking-under-the-hood-of-the-toronto-condo-market/

http://issuu.com/wall2wall/docs/tcg_1514/c/s8uggd4

Here is another great article on internet TROLLS: http://www.torontosun.com/2014/08/28/shutting-down-online-haters?token=54f6d2741aac0d6c01c1ebe7afe93325

 

[DearSummer]

edit

 

[Pi3141592654]

Just in case some of you are really bored on a Friday, here are a few articles and blogs to read:

http://fortressrealdevelopments.com/news/what-canadian-housing-bears-dont-want-you-to-know/

http://blog.reincanada.com/how-to-assess-condo-investments-using-real-data or with pictures here: http://magazine.reincanada.com/2014_Issue6/#p=36

http://fortressrealdevelopments.com/news/size-definitely-matters-looking-under-the-hood-of-the-toronto-condo-market/

http://issuu.com/wall2wall/docs/tcg_1514/c/s8uggd4

Here is another great article on internet TROLLS: http://www.torontosun.com/2014/08/28/shutting-down-online-haters?token=54f6d2741aac0d6c01c1ebe7afe93325

What's with all the physics on the cover page of the article?

 

[DearSummer]

Just in case some of you are really bored on a Friday, here are a few articles and blogs to read:

http://fortressrealdevelopments.com/news/what-canadian-housing-bears-dont-want-you-to-know/

http://blog.reincanada.com/how-to-assess-condo-investments-using-real-data or with pictures here: http://magazine.reincanada.com/2014_Issue6/#p=36

http://fortressrealdevelopments.com/news/size-definitely-matters-looking-under-the-hood-of-the-toronto-condo-market/

http://issuu.com/wall2wall/docs/tcg_1514/c/s8uggd4

Here is another great article on internet TROLLS: http://www.torontosun.com/2014/08/28/shutting-down-online-haters?token=54f6d2741aac0d6c01c1ebe7afe93325

Maybe you could reply to this poor sap who "invested" in Real Fortress Capital / Developments:

I am still waiting for answers in regards to the Langston Hall 2 project I invested in. I haven't received an interest payment in well over a year (and the loan should have matured in December 2013, but my money is still tied up), and updates are incredibly hard to come by. I read on the internet that The Langston Hall 2 property has been conditionally sold to another developer, but still no updates from Fortress. All I can say is buyer beware. Traditional investment options may not give the potential ROI that Fortress can provide, but they are much less risk. The thought of losing $34,000 makes me sick to my stomach.

http://forums.redflagdeals.com/fort...do-development-syndicate-mortgages-1073974/3/

 

[DearSummer]

edit

 

[Edward Skira]

Enough of this trolling DearSummer. We've heard enough about this. Stick to topic at hand.

 

[detroitbootybass]

Enough of this trolling DearSummer. We've heard enough about this. Stick to topic at hand.

Have Fortress and/or Ben Myers made any ad buys or given any donations here, Ed? It just seems odd that you'd pop into this thread and tell one person to stay on topic but not the other.

 

[Edward Skira]

No. But I pop into threads when I get complaints about members trolling as I did in this case.

 

[BMyers]

What's with all the physics on the cover page of the article?

View attachment 32293

Not sure, REIN selects the graphics, I just submit the articles. Other articles were more traditional stock photos: http://magazine.reincanada.com/2014_Issue2/#p=30 / http://magazine.reincanada.com/2014_Issue5/#p=22

Figured I'd include some econometric analysis in the report you referenced above to combat some of the statements and conclusions out there. Even I was shocked by some of the results, very little correlation between increases in listings and changes in resale pricing in the condo market.

 

[BMyers]

People, please, don't take advice from any real estate agent, developer, or people that work for them claiming to just "have an interest in real estate and love cool architecture and love to talk about it".

They all care about ONE thing: to make money. And that's exactly what they are doing as long as they push projects that make them rich and you poor.

I wrote an article for you in the New Condo Guide!

Are Realtors Biased?

http://issuu.com/wall2wall/docs/tcg_1614/44

 

[Pi3141592654]

Not sure, REIN selects the graphics, I just submit the articles. Other articles were more traditional stock photos: http://magazine.reincanada.com/2014_Issue2/#p=30 / http://magazine.reincanada.com/2014_Issue5/#p=22

Figured I'd include some econometric analysis in the report you referenced above to combat some of the statements and conclusions out there. Even I was shocked by some of the results, very little correlation between increases in listings and changes in resale pricing in the condo market.

Why not present the statistical significance of your results...since you presented correlations.

Let's see the model.