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Baby, we got a bubble!?
- Thread starter simuls
- Start date
azureray
Active Member
nativejack
New Member
MLS usually takes the rented apartments within a day. I dont think his data is flawed, and he mentioned that he crosschecked for duplicates and accounted for posibility of rented apartments. Now if he does a follow up and the numbers are the same, data would be even more reliable
Riverdale Rink Rat
Senior Member
Member Bio
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- Back to East York... Alas!
http://tinyurl.com/c8h8846
G&M article on the Big Short boys now shorting Canadian RE. Also making kinda stupid remarks about CMHC to stoke fears. Not that they're wrong about the overvaluation, but there's a huge difference between 'overvalued' and 'going to plunge into crisis' given the rules-tightening that's already gone on.
G&M article on the Big Short boys now shorting Canadian RE. Also making kinda stupid remarks about CMHC to stoke fears. Not that they're wrong about the overvaluation, but there's a huge difference between 'overvalued' and 'going to plunge into crisis' given the rules-tightening that's already gone on.
recharts
Banned
I am seeing some wishful thinking in this report
"Vancouver is in correction mode"
This is one of the very few articles that openly admits that, still an isolated opinion. As for Toronto the people need time to get used to that.
Since Vancouver was well ahead of the country it is normal to be hit the first.
Toronto just needs time to get there
on all fronts. From what I am seeing in my crystal balls (aka real numbers
) the over 1 mil market is stalled.Lots of properties to choose from in very good areas (not all good properties though) but they are not selling. I will soon see if the prices are dropping
However the under 1 mil $ segment is overheating well, driving the prices up.
Initially I believed that the prices are still going up due to discounted high end sales that were skewing the stats
I will have to put on the same piece of paper the folling:
-price changes for listings above 1 mil
-$ volumes for sales above 1 mil
-sales for properties above 1 mil
-sales for properties under 1 mil and above the average price
-$volumes for the above
Right now I believe that the properties above 700K and under 1 mil are getting higher than normal prices and they are driving the prices up.
This will still inflate the CHMC tabs and the government will be forced to step in again with some restrictions.
I will have to run stats per price segments to see if the increases in the above segment are strong enough to sustain an average price going up AND compensate by a cooling off at the periphery of the market (300K-500K)here asked about my "vision"
someone here asked about my "vision" for Toronto.
You have it above
If you asked for Condos, I think that the article that I pointed out today has a fairly good method to prove that this segment of the market is in trouble (and that is my opinion)
We are just starting to see a correction here, ewe are going to see many other rounds of media intoxication with "prices are going up, rents are going up, the investors are doing OK, half of China is investing in Toronto and so on, but ..the direction that the developers are taking is clear 55% down, you have to get the message! The market is saturated. Do not hope that the renting will save the market.
Riverdale Rink Rat
Senior Member
Member Bio
- Joined
- Apr 29, 2008
- Messages
- 2,775
- Reaction score
- 273
- Location
- Back to East York... Alas!
I am seeing some wishful thinking in this report
"Vancouver is in correction mode"
This is one of the very few articles that openly admits that, still an isolated opinion. As for Toronto the people need time to get used to that.
Since Vancouver was well ahead of the country it is normal to be hit the first.
Toronto just needs time to get there
From what I am seeing in my crystal balls (aka real numbers
Lots of properties to choose from in very good areas (not all good properties though) but they are not selling. I will soon see if the prices are dropping
However the under 1 mil $ segment is overheating well, driving the prices up.
Initially I believed that the prices are still going up due to discounted high end sales that were skewing the stats
I will have to put on the same piece of paper the folling:
-price changes for listings above 1 mil
-$ volumes for sales above 1 mil
-sales for properties above 1 mil
-sales for properties under 1 mil and above the average price
-$volumes for the above
Right now I believe that the properties above 700K and under 1 mil are getting higher than normal prices and they are driving the prices up.
This will still inflate the CHMC tabs and the government will be forced to step in again with some restrictions.
I will have to run stats per price segments to see if the increases in the above segment are strong enough to sustain an average price going up AND compensate by a cooling off at the periphery of the market (300K-500K)here asked about my "vision"
someone here asked about my "vision" for Toronto.
You have it above
If you asked for Condos, I think that the article that I pointed out today has a fairly good method to prove that this segment of the market is in trouble (and that is my opinion)
We are just starting to see a correction here, ewe are going to see many other rounds of media intoxication with "prices are going up, rents are going up, the investors are doing OK, half of China is investing in Toronto and so on, but ..the direction that the developers are taking is clear 55% down, you have to get the message! The market is saturated. Do not hope that the renting will save the market.
Whatever. You cite zero facs and have zero credibility.
recharts
Banned
you wish
Here are some facts
http://recharts.blogspot.com/2013/05/to-sfd-listings-breakdown-may-08.html
HTML:
SoldPrice under 1mil$
Row Labels 01/05/2013 02/05/2013 03/05/2013 04/05/2013 05/05/2013 06/05/2013 07/05/2013 08/05/2013 Grand Total
DanforthBeaches 4 5 4 1 2 4 5 25
DownTown 7 2 3 2 7 8 1 30
NorthEast 7 7 6 3 2 23 11 1 60
NorthWest 8 7 10 4 4 7 6 1 47
NorthYork 5 3 4 2 3 5 9 31
SouthEast 8 4 10 2 3 5 3 1 36
SouthWest 14 14 8 5 4 16 17 78
Grand Total 53 42 45 17 20 67 59 4 307
SoldPrice over 1mil$
Count of lng Column Labels
Row Labels 01/05/2013 02/05/2013 03/05/2013 04/05/2013 05/05/2013 06/05/2013 07/05/2013 Grand Total
DownTown 4 3 5 1 5 3 21
NorthEast 1 1 1 3
NorthYork 6 2 2 3 1 5 4 23
SouthEast 1 1 2
SouthWest 2 2 3 1 2 3 2 15
Grand Total 12 9 10 5 3 14 11 64As I said I will have to run the numbers.
And I think I am giving you more numbers than that article or many others that say for instance that Vancovuer is fine
many got addicted to these prices and the cheap interest rates and they are reluctant to give up on believing that the prices are sustainable
Above you have the sales and you have the inventory on my site
that is enough for you to see the MOI for each segment (under and above 1 mil ) and if you want to see (which I doubt judging by your dismissive tone) you might realize that there is a problem for houses above 1 mil. The goverment succeded in stoping the bubble in that segemnt but now the underlying segments are inflating as well
They will have to change the rules again dear Rat
Last edited:
LordWanker
Active Member
you wish
Here are some facts
http://recharts.blogspot.com/2013/05/to-sfd-listings-breakdown-may-08.html
HTML:SoldPrice under 1mil$ Row Labels 01/05/2013 02/05/2013 03/05/2013 04/05/2013 05/05/2013 06/05/2013 07/05/2013 08/05/2013 Grand Total DanforthBeaches 4 5 4 1 2 4 5 25 DownTown 7 2 3 2 7 8 1 30 NorthEast 7 7 6 3 2 23 11 1 60 NorthWest 8 7 10 4 4 7 6 1 47 NorthYork 5 3 4 2 3 5 9 31 SouthEast 8 4 10 2 3 5 3 1 36 SouthWest 14 14 8 5 4 16 17 78 Grand Total 53 42 45 17 20 67 59 4 307 SoldPrice over 1mil$ Count of lng Column Labels Row Labels 01/05/2013 02/05/2013 03/05/2013 04/05/2013 05/05/2013 06/05/2013 07/05/2013 Grand Total DownTown 4 3 5 1 5 3 21 NorthEast 1 1 1 3 NorthYork 6 2 2 3 1 5 4 23 SouthEast 1 1 2 SouthWest 2 2 3 1 2 3 2 15 Grand Total 12 9 10 5 3 14 11 64
As I said I will have to run the numbers.
And I think I am giving you more numbers than that article or many others that say for instance that Vancovuer is fine
many got addicted to this prices and the cheap interest rates and they are reluctant to give up on believing that the prices are sustainable
Above you have the sales and you have the inventory on my site
that is enough for you to see the MOI for each segment (under and above 1 mil ) and if you want to see (which I doubt judging by your dismissive tone) you might realize that there is a problem for houses above 1 mil. The goverment succeded in stoping the bubble in that segemnt but now the underlying segments are inflating as well
They will have to change the rules again dear Rat
but where are you getting those numbers from for your blog?
daveto
Active Member
you wish
Here are some facts
http://recharts.blogspot.com/2013/05/to-sfd-listings-breakdown-may-08.html
HTML:SoldPrice under 1mil$ Row Labels 01/05/2013 02/05/2013 03/05/2013 04/05/2013 05/05/2013 06/05/2013 07/05/2013 08/05/2013 Grand Total DanforthBeaches 4 5 4 1 2 4 5 25 DownTown 7 2 3 2 7 8 1 30 NorthEast 7 7 6 3 2 23 11 1 60 NorthWest 8 7 10 4 4 7 6 1 47 NorthYork 5 3 4 2 3 5 9 31 SouthEast 8 4 10 2 3 5 3 1 36 SouthWest 14 14 8 5 4 16 17 78 Grand Total 53 42 45 17 20 67 59 4 307 SoldPrice over 1mil$ Count of lng Column Labels Row Labels 01/05/2013 02/05/2013 03/05/2013 04/05/2013 05/05/2013 06/05/2013 07/05/2013 Grand Total DownTown 4 3 5 1 5 3 21 NorthEast 1 1 1 3 NorthYork 6 2 2 3 1 5 4 23 SouthEast 1 1 2 SouthWest 2 2 3 1 2 3 2 15 Grand Total 12 9 10 5 3 14 11 64
As I said I will have to run the numbers.
And I think I am giving you more numbers than that article or many others that say for instance that Vancovuer is fine
many got addicted to these prices and the cheap interest rates and they are reluctant to give up on believing that the prices are sustainable
Above you have the sales and you have the inventory on my site
that is enough for you to see the MOI for each segment (under and above 1 mil ) and if you want to see (which I doubt judging by your dismissive tone) you might realize that there is a problem for houses above 1 mil. The goverment succeded in stoping the bubble in that segemnt but now the underlying segments are inflating as well
They will have to change the rules again dear Rat
Your interpretation of data is flawed.
1. Your analysis does not consider normal seasonal variances
2. Your analysis does not consider current data in the context of historical data.
3. Your analysis does not consider "bracket creep" (in this case above/below $1m)
Finally, contrary to your conclusions, a review of TREB data in the Market Watch reports indicates that the 2013 sales activity in the excess $1m bracket has been statistically consistent with sales activity in the below $1m bracket. The various differing gov't actions have affected $1m+ properties, but also entry level properties.
urbandreamer
recession proof
I think I know where.
daveto
Active Member
It comes from TREB data.
LordWanker
Active Member
Thank you.
Hank
Active Member
Do you have any investments in condo hotels? They don't seem to get much discussion here, but I would think that they might be an interesting investment, if only because the income should be taxable at the small business rate (assuming you own it through a corporation). A lot less bother than trying to rent it out yourself as well (although there's the obvious downside that you're paying someone to handle that bother for you). There's units for sale at 1 King West now for under $200,000 that will generate an average of almost $2,000 a month in income. Even after property taxes, condo fees, and mortgage you're still probably slightly ahead.
Also, what did you mean above by "no capital gain"?
daveto
Active Member
What is your data source for sub-$200k units generating average net income of $24k/yrly? (ie net to you, after cleaning, management fee, etc) If I were you I would closely assess whether that is legitimate, or marketing/anecdotal.
azureray
Active Member
Yes I do. One king west is doing very well. Amazing architecture, good management. All the legacy problems are solved but the only reason why its cheaper than market is that all banks are told not to lend to condo / hotels. So all your buyers have to buy with cash. If you want to buy, check your financing first.
Im not in the hotel pool, but Im making a sizable profit. Not 24K a year, but net rental income close to $20K, definitely a positive cash flow.
Im not in the hotel pool, but Im making a sizable profit. Not 24K a year, but net rental income close to $20K, definitely a positive cash flow.