urbandreamer
recession proof
I said the bubble would burst when we hit page 400--it did (early June 2012). I said the bull market will return when we hit page 800--will be interesting to find out 
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Baby, we got a bubble!?
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azureray
Active Member
LOL...I will bet on that too.
I said the bubble would burst when we hit page 400--it did (early June 2012). I said the bull market will return when we hit page 800--will be interesting to find out
azureray
Active Member
BTW, I love your render porns. I may have a few really interesting boutique highrisers for you in the coming months, exclusive stuff upcoming in the downtown core, but nothing will get close to it, even Mirvish. Futuristic and bold architecture.
I said the bubble would burst when we hit page 400--it did (early June 2012). I said the bull market will return when we hit page 800--will be interesting to find out
recharts
Banned
And let me guess ... only the TREB stats are reliable right ?
Signal is what you pay for the house
Noise is the bullshit emanating from TREB stats.
Did I get that right ?
There is a pretty big chance that I learned and played with these two notions a lot more than you will ever do but let's not digress on that.
You did not explain how one can calculate seasonal adjusted trends and how one can take into consideration seasonality when data is not available.
I have data going back to January and I assure you that compared with that April and May are looking really bad.
You ignored the MOI indicator that I pointed to and you did not explain what this can not be taken into consideration.
For me that indicator is a clear sign of accumulating inventory and for that segment of the market the prices will have to decrease no matter what happened in other seasons. It is the peak of the market and alomost nothing is selling there so I don;t see your point.
Also how can you compare the way the extremities of the price ranges are squeezed by the government regulations ..how can you compare these with past situations like that never existed?
I think that your rebuttal is as baseless and generic as it can be.
If you had the numbers or the skill you could have proved with numbers.
How come that only I have to provide numbers ?
...I think that looking at what you just did above a student can clearly understand what is noise . However I hope it is seasonal in your case.Anyway to cut the story short, he asked what was my "vision" and that is my opinion (good or wrong) about the market.
recharts
Banned
azureray
Active Member
Are we all guys here? No female voice on this thread?
KA1
Senior Member
Seems to be so because only guys will indulge in irrlevant useless talk page after page and that too without a beer
rbt
Senior Member
No, you cannot. That means it's to be negotiated. Sometimes tenants don't agree to a rent increase so you arrange to kick them out when you find a replacement tenant.
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daveto
Active Member
I'm a mid-40s insurance executive & actuary.
You're a nerdy, arrogant kid in his late 20's. One day you'll realize that you're not as smart as you think. And when that happens, if you faithfully follow that path to humility for a decade or more, you may one day begin to become nearly as smart as you think you currently are.
recharts
Banned
You made my day.
I doubt that you had to learn probabilities in order to understand Quantum Mechanics and its applications in Semiconductors Physics.
You are never as smart as you think as "that book" actually explains you. And it is not your fault, see above and below for reasons
In order to predict when I am going to be as smart as you believe that I believe I am you need to know a little bit about me which you don't so that right there sends you back to grade 5 (age and knowledge)
I guess I know what you might want to measure and compare next!
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recharts
Banned
I am seeing some wishful thinking in this report
"Vancouver is in correction mode"
This is one of the very few articles that openly admits that, still an isolated opinion. As for Toronto the people need time to get used to that.
Since Vancouver was well ahead of the country it is normal to be hit the first.
Toronto just needs time to get there
From what I am seeing in my crystal balls (aka real numbers
Lots of properties to choose from in very good areas (not all good properties though) but they are not selling. I will soon see if the prices are dropping
However the under 1 mil $ segment is overheating well, driving the prices up.
Initially I believed that the prices are still going up due to discounted high end sales that were skewing the stats
I will have to put on the same piece of paper the folling:
-price changes for listings above 1 mil
-$ volumes for sales above 1 mil
-sales for properties above 1 mil
-sales for properties under 1 mil and above the average price
-$volumes for the above
Right now I believe that the properties above 700K and under 1 mil are getting higher than normal prices and they are driving the prices up.
This will still inflate the CHMC tabs and the government will be forced to step in again with some restrictions.
I will have to run stats per price segments to see if the increases in the above segment are strong enough to sustain an average price going up AND compensate by a cooling off at the periphery of the market (300K-500K)here asked about my "vision"
someone here asked about my "vision" for Toronto.
You have it above
If you asked for Condos, I think that the article that I pointed out today has a fairly good method to prove that this segment of the market is in trouble (and that is my opinion)
We are just starting to see a correction here, ewe are going to see many other rounds of media intoxication with "prices are going up, rents are going up, the investors are doing OK, half of China is investing in Toronto and so on, but ..the direction that the developers are taking is clear 55% down, you have to get the message! The market is saturated. Do not hope that the renting will save the market.
Here you go: Garth leaked some coming changes:
Last week the CEOs of the monster banks were given a clear message that 30-year mortgages need to be wiped away. Completely. In fact, they’ll be banned. That letter will go out next week, the result of a decision made jointly by the Department of Finance, OSFI (the bank regulator) and the Bank of Canada. Regulated financial institutions will also be prevented from buying any securities which are made up on mortgage with 30-year ams.
Why is F turning big dog on the banks?
Because real estate isn’t croaking fast enough. As over-the-top as mortgage brokers, realtors and developers think Ottawa’s anti-house actions have been, TPTB are not satisfied. Consumer debt keeps rising. House prices have not fallen far enough, fast enough. The credit bubble inflates more, and the troika is convinced this will end badly.
It’s why F waded into the middle of the mortgage wars last month, forcing banks to raise deep-discounted loan rates to prevent a “race to the bottom.” Now it explains banning long mortgages, a move the Finance Department estimates (internally, and secretly) could shave another 5% to 10% off sales.
daveto what is YOUR analysis saying ? Mine, the one you said was wrong, is quoted above.
If I could see it coming the problem must be really big. I did not like to accept it but yes the prices were still going up.
Believe me, if this is not going to stop the bubble from becoming bigger they will have to do something more drastic.
And yes, as I said the two markets (condos and SFD) are connected, like it or not, so you better tolerate my posts around her for a while
who knows what else you might learn
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daveto
Active Member
???...You quoted it yourself...
And the post from G.Turner has nothing to do with your comment about the xs/sub $1m market (which remains statistically and factually untrue.)
I now genuinely think there is something medically wrong with you.
recharts
Banned
???...You quoted it yourself...
And the post from G.Turner has nothing to do with your comment about the xs/sub $1m market (which remains statistically and factually untrue.)
I now genuinely think there is something medically wrong with you.
Sure, you attacked the numbers, my capacity to analyze the numbers and now my mental sanity.
You just gave yourself your own measure, you are not discussing facts. I doubt you have the age you say you have.
I quoted myself knowing that your short term memory has low capacity and you will not remember what I just said today
In fact you could not follow the discussion and you kept changing your own focus, you ignored the answers given to you or , worse, you were not able to handle the replies.
Like above. I bolded for you the paragraph I was referring to but ....in vain.
urbandreamer
recession proof
Hey, just stick to posting your charts once a week. No need to scream at each other.
Perhaps we've got another aspie in the house?
Azureray: Looking forward to your bold architectural moves.
Perhaps we've got another aspie in the house?
Azureray: Looking forward to your bold architectural moves.
pf4redflag
Banned
Completely different markets. Your post is non sense!
Here is how it worked in US
I am seeing there just 5 out of 15 cities above the 80% of the peak value after 24 months from the peak
10% per year seems to be reasonable
One aspect that you did not mention is that the stepper the appreciation curve the stepper the depreciation curve
Where do you think that Toronto is right now? How far from the peak and on what side of the slope?