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Baby, we got a bubble!?

How much is it easing? For the first two months of the year RealNet Canada Inc. there were 1,633 high-rise sales compared to 3,348 a year earlier. On the flip side low-rise sales are making a slight comeback. There were 2,818 low-rise sales over the first two months of the year compared to 2,571 a year earlier.

3 comments:

First, wow. That's a huge drop no matter how you slice it.
Second, I'd prefer to look a either a full quarter of sales or probably 6 months.
Third, 1600+ new condo sales in 2 winter months is still enormous volume compared to....anywhere.
 
CNTower,
Hi rise starts and sales are vefry volatile so your comment about a quarter or even 6 months is highly applicable.
A lot depends on how many projects come to market in a time frame. It can vary quite widely.
Other than that, I agree with you whole heartedly.
 
Ka1, the article is talking about Single family homes.
It may also include some condos but the other numbers posted in the previous pages would suggest otherwise when talking about condos.
As others have said, there are 2 markets and I believe we will see divergence in the single family vs. condo markets going forward.
It is noteworthy that people don't seem to think anything of spending $600-900K on a house and that OFSI is going to look at increasing the criteria to qualify for the amount of debt people are taking to get a mortgage(at least from a bank). They are really trying to save people from overwhelming debt but it does not appear the warnings are being headed. And of course, the longer people wait and see prices to continue to rise; eventually capitulation occurs and people just buy at "any price" and throw discipline to the wind since they get fatigued at waiting to get into or trade up in the market.
 
Ka1, the article is talking about Single family homes.
It may also include some condos but the other numbers posted in the previous pages would suggest otherwise when talking about condos.
As others have said, there are 2 markets and I believe we will see divergence in the single family vs. condo markets going forward.
It is noteworthy that people don't seem to think anything of spending $600-900K on a house and that OFSI is going to look at increasing the criteria to qualify for the amount of debt people are taking to get a mortgage(at least from a bank). They are really trying to save people from overwhelming debt but it does not appear the warnings are being headed. And of course, the longer people wait and see prices to continue to rise; eventually capitulation occurs and people just buy at "any price" and throw discipline to the wind since they get fatigued at waiting to get into or trade up in the market.

Interested, your post was completely anticipated. With all due respect, you just don't seem to have something called 'Broader Vision".

Yes, the article talks about bidding war in the housing sector. Individuals who can not participate in the bidding war in the housing sector, disappointed will turn to the condo sector. That's where the bidding war is coming up -- soon.

The other day, you had posted floor plans/price list for CASA2. 2 bedroom units on the 32nd floor and higher, with parking and storage locker included, are going for $ 900psf. By the end of the summer, these prices are going to look like a 'bargain'.

Tighten your seat belts:)
 
Individuals who can not participate in the bidding war in the housing sector, disappointed will turn to the condo sector. That's where the bidding war is coming up -- soon.

I disagree. They are two very different markets and consumers in those markets are looking for different things. People bidding on 3-bedroom houses with a patch of grass, a basement and a garage aren't going to turn to 2-bedroom condos with a balcony and a parking locker if they get priced out of the house market. They're more likely to stay put and wait it out.

I also wouldn't preclude a pullback in SFH pricing, although it is unlikely to be as significant as any pullback in condo pricing (if/when that does occur.)
 
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Can your neighbour's successful sale be contagious? The house across that highly publicized 300 Dudley Ave is for sale (for more reasonable 998K, 301 Dudley, MLS C2313763). I guess it might still trigger a small bidding war and disappear from the MLS in a week or so.
 
With all due respect, you just don't seem to have something called 'Broader Vision".

It's funny, cause after reading your posts over the months I think the same about you :)

I think you're dead wrong. The condo market is now at the point of saturation and in the years after the correction, people will look back and say yep, it started in 2012.
 
It's funny, cause after reading your posts over the months I think the same about you :)

I think you're dead wrong. The condo market is now at the point of saturation and in the years after the correction, people will look back and say yep, it started in 2012.

Time will be the judge, my friend. Time. According to Interested, every thing should have started unravelling in the Spring of 2009.

Give time the time and then judge me.
 
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It did unravel in 2008 and early 2009 to the tune of about 15% in prices only to recover (in my opinion) inordinately due to flooding of money world wide.
Irrationality can continue for prolonged periods of time.
When there is a correction, and it is more severe than might have been had reasonableness in the market place prevailed; I will not be gloating. Rather I will be saddened by the damage it will cause to a lot of people, many of them innocent individuals swept up in the storm.
I have said "mea culpa" enough on this. I have been wrong. I am still willing to bet that at some point in the future we will revisit 2008 prices.
I personally believe we are peaking. Then again, I was wrong guessing that before so I will probably be wrong again. However, blindly forever increasing prices makes absolutely no sense and in my view this is really not accounting for the "broader vision".
 
Time will be the judge, my friend. Time. According to Interested, every thing should have started unravelling in the Spring of 2009.

Give time the time and then judge me.


Gosh, I'm just so looking forward to purchasing one of those smaller higher priced condos that will be completely and totally unaffordable. I mean, I just can't wait... actually I can... I can afford to wait. And... I for one will not feel sorry for investors... I actually want to thank them for their greed... and their foolishness. I want to thank the developers, and the real estate agents and everyone that contributed in a small way to make housing really affordable for everyone... it is the best "broader vision" and it's something to hope for. :)
 
Gosh, I'm just so looking forward to purchasing one of those smaller higher priced condos that will be completely and totally unaffordable. I mean, I just can't wait... actually I can... I can afford to wait. And... I for one will not feel sorry for investors... I actually want to thank them for their greed... and their foolishness. I want to thank the developers, and the real estate agents and everyone that contributed in a small way to make housing really affordable for everyone... it is the best "broader vision" and it's something to hope for. :)

I am glad that you are on my side on "our" broader vision. All now what we have to do is to bring 'Interested' on our side.

By the way, Minto will, soon, be bringing to the market its latest project on Roehampton Avenue, Young & Eglinton. That should be the test of 'broader vision'.
 
I am glad that you are on my side on "our" broader vision. All now what we have to do is to bring 'Interested' on our side.

By the way, Minto will, soon, be bringing to the market its latest project on Roehampton Avenue, Young & Eglinton. That should be the test of 'broader vision'.


Yeah, I'm on your side. :) I'm looking and seeing in my crystal ball that Ten York will be released... and the public will be lined up for days beforehand and the whole building is going to sell out within hours... at prices in the $2000 psf range. This will be the most (UN)affordable canadian city to live in!!!!!!!! The future is so bright for RE prices, I'll need 70 spf sunblock and sunglasses at night.
 
And... I for one will not feel sorry for investors... I actually want to thank them for their greed... and their foolishness. I want to thank the developers, and the real estate agents and everyone that contributed in a small way to make housing really affordable for everyone... it is the best "broader vision" and it's something to hope for. :)

Why don't you just group everyone whom you've vilified here as people either in the market or making a living off it and label yourself as someone out of the market and making, well, nothing??

You might as well criticize those greedy Apple shareholders who turned a quick buck daytrading its shares, the greedy employees who earn huge salaries for selling your crappy iPods, the distributors who make a living off transporting those overpriced iPads to the malls...everyone is in on it- it is a conspiracy to shut macookie (or any of the vocal opponents to the housing market) out!

See my point? It ain't about you kid so why make it about you? If you think home ownership is too much then don't buy it. There's plenty of real estate to rent. And if you don't like this town, well there are thousands of flights in/out of here daily to take you wherever you want to go. I personally hope you stick around though. The more human energy in this town the better!
 

While listings in Toronto for the first two months of this year are up 11 per cent over the same period last year,

More than half reported double-digit increases, with a 12 per cent jump in sales in the Greater Toronto Area during what’s normally the calm before the storm of spring buying.

Hmmm... that can easily be attributed to the mild weather.

Sales have been especially brisk among properties listed over $1.5 million, with sales up 53 per cent, it says.

The $1.5mill+ market is extremely volatile (due to their lower numbers) and is not really a great indicator of the big picture. As I recall, these high priced homes had an inordinate fall in sales last year.

The Toronto Star (moneyville) has lost a great deal of credibility in terms of reporting real estate. They are heavily dependent on ad sales from companies like ReMax, so it behooves them to support a rosier picture for realtors. I trust the Globe and Mail a little more.
 

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