News   Feb 23, 2024
 1.3K     2 
News   Feb 23, 2024
 632     0 
News   Feb 23, 2024
 942     0 

Baby, we got a bubble!?

^^
As terrible as a line is, and I disapprove, at least it gives a motivated end user a chance to get in line and waste 2 weeks time to get a unit he would want. Or is the line only for "VIP's or agents". And if so, some "VIP" treatment.
As well, if there are already 60 people, I wonder if prices will "jump" up as they did when Bazis had 1 Bloor East.

i'm under the impression it's for agents only, VIP or otherwise, and not for end-users.

these agents will grab as many units they can, then go and try to assign them for a profit within the 10 days for recission.
double dipping and conflicts of interest galore ... they get broker's commission for 'selling' the unit and mark up profit.
 
Last edited:
In response to cdr's post:
Well if that is the case, and they try and sell for a profit, above the already ridiculous 4% they are being offered; then I hope they get stuck with some units. In a way, maybe the best thing that can happen is that they pay people, 2 lines form, there is disagreement, the project gets hit with the bad wrap that 1 Bloor St. got, and the greedy lose some money. I recall reading that some realtors lamenting that they had paid $2K to someone to wait only to have them not get in at 1 Bloor. Please understand before everyone pounces on me this is not jealousy nor pettiness on my part. I think realtors, developers and yes, investors (which I consider myself one of) need to start treating others in the process as their clients/business partners and treat them with respect rather than simply trying to make money off them even if they have to resort to unethical/poor practices to do it.
Witness the backlash recently towards Goldman Sacks when the individual posted his rant that the investment bank has lost its moral compass. At some point, this will end badly for GS just as it will for those realtors/developers/investors who treat their co-clientele with utter disregard.

I believe cdr we have peaked on Precon. This is just attempts at marketing hype to bring out more irrationability. This will end poorly if prices are above $750/sq.ft. in that location. I suspect they will be $800-$1000/sq.ft.

I posted before that year on year condos were 4%. I am not sure if this is the C01 neighbourhood but if so clearly prices are not going to catch up when this project is ready to what is being asked.
 
Last edited:
In response to daveto's post of Pacificapartners blog.
This is truly a great read. I just scanned the additions having read it in the past.
I really believe all young people jumping into the market now need to read this. My kids get angry with me that i point out too much of this stuff but I did give them the recent article from the Globe and Mail to read to appreciate what young people are potentially taking on.
Personally, I am not so worried about the baby boomers who have had the growth in R/E equity. I worry more about the young; the Gen X and Y's who have limited equity and if the housing market does decline and this extends to the rest of the economy (similar though not necessarily as extreme as in the US); the loss of jobs, the hit to the economy will be severe.
I have no sympathy for "speculator investors" who buy with no intent to either use or rent out but solely for the purpose of price appreciation. If you wish to gamble, please appreciate that one can lose everything. The problem is that the gamblers ruin the "game" in the long run for everyone though they set up a situation where there will be bigger winners/losers than if people were just buying real estate for true investments/end usage.
 
Pacifica Partners Bias


Overheard at the Pacifica watercooler:

AJ (President)- "guys, the real estate market is killing our business! I want you to go out there and dig up some research making it look like the real estate market is going to crash and that people should be investing in good old stocks and bonds! Now get to it or you are fired!"

Aman (Research)- "ok boss, I'll get right on it! I already called Garth "The Terminator" Turner and he is going to give us some great stats to scare the crap out of the real estate buying public!"

Naveen (Client Services)- "and once Aman gets me those scary stats I will blast it to our entire distibution list of current and prospective clients!"

AJ (President)- "brilliant team! Now, let's buy some more Apple stock and charge those suckers 2/20 for it!"

Everyone- "You got it boss!!"
 
interested, casa is actually in C08 as it's s/e of Yonge/Bloor.

what are the prices for casa2 btw?
if the line up is reminiscent of 1 Bloor, many at that time said it was indicative of a peak.
sure enough, the credit crisis occurred and it may happen again ... unbridled frenzy.
 
interested, casa is actually in C08 as it's s/e of Yonge/Bloor.

what are the prices for casa2 btw?
if the line up is reminiscent of 1 Bloor, many at that time said it was indicative of a peak.
sure enough, the credit crisis occurred and it may happen again ... unbridled frenzy.

If you go to this website you can see pricing and floor plans.

http://filecenter.bestforagents.com/Customers/367190/FileManager/Casa2/Casa_2_Features_PriceList.pdf

Bachelors from $740/sq.ft. on floor 4 North viewand going up $3/sq.ft./floor with possible more if there are views. 1 bedroom den for the same amount at $740/sq.ft. for the East view.
Then more for the more desirable views and of course the cost/floor and later costs/view. So I think it is safe to assume about $800/sq.ft. for a mid 20's floor with view.
Parking is $68K on select units. since the largest units showing is about 750 sq.ft. and most 2 bedrooms are under 650 sq.ft. and parking is $65000: that adds another $100/sq.ft. I am not surpirsed but it is dear, no question about it.
 
Overheard at the Pacifica watercooler:

AJ (President)- "guys, the real estate market is killing our business! I want you to go out there and dig up some research making it look like the real estate market is going to crash and that people should be investing in good old stocks and bonds! Now get to it or you are fired!"

Aman (Research)- "ok boss, I'll get right on it! I already called Garth "The Terminator" Turner and he is going to give us some great stats to scare the crap out of the real estate buying public!"

Naveen (Client Services)- "and once Aman gets me those scary stats I will blast it to our entire distibution list of current and prospective clients!"

AJ (President)- "brilliant team! Now, let's buy some more Apple stock and charge those suckers 2/20 for it!"

Everyone- "You got it boss!!"

The recent performance of the TO (and Canadian market) should make it very, very easy to provide facts/stats in support of the sustainability of this remarkable RE market. Yet it seems that the best any Canadian RE optimist can do is to present soft theories without supporting facts and/or ridicule those who question the status quo. (or cast aspersions on their motives therein).
 
If you go to this website you can see pricing and floor plans.

http://filecenter.bestforagents.com/Customers/367190/FileManager/Casa2/Casa_2_Features_PriceList.pdf

Bachelors from $740/sq.ft. on floor 4 North viewand going up $3/sq.ft./floor with possible more if there are views. 1 bedroom den for the same amount at $740/sq.ft. for the East view.
Then more for the more desirable views and of course the cost/floor and later costs/view. So I think it is safe to assume about $800/sq.ft. for a mid 20's floor with view.
Parking is $68K on select units. since the largest units showing is about 750 sq.ft. and most 2 bedrooms are under 650 sq.ft. and parking is $65000: that adds another $100/sq.ft. I am not surpirsed but it is dear, no question about it.

thanks for the price list interested, but i didn't see any floorplans. are they identical to casa?
 
Sorry, just prices there.
http://filecenter.bestforagents.com/Customers/367190/FileManager/Casa2/Casa_2_Floorplans.pdf

You can see the floor plans. Lots of outdoor space which is a plus. Still, very pricey in my viewl

An interesting article from the National Post on line today.

http://business.financialpost.com/2012/03/20/toronto-condo-sales-slide-59-from-last-year/
Toronto high-rise condo sales slide 59% from last yearGarry Marr Mar 20, 2012 – 10:26 AM ET | Last Updated: Mar 20, 2012 12:22 PM ET


Brent Lewin/Bloomberg
Construction continues on the foundation of a condominium project in Toronto.

.Comments Email Twitter inShare.5.Builders call it “stability” in the housing market but sales in Toronto’s high-rise market, which includes the volatile condominium sector, saw a 59% decline in sales from a year ago.

“After a record-breaking sales year in 2011, it would appear that the [greater Toronto area] new housing market is easing back into stability in early 2012,” says the Building Industry and Land Development Association in a release.

How much is it easing? For the first two months of the year RealNet Canada Inc. there were 1,633 high-rise sales compared to 3,348 a year earlier. On the flip side low-rise sales are making a slight comeback. There were 2,818 low-rise sales over the first two months of the year compared to 2,571 a year earlier.
Related
Move over Toronto, Calgary’s condo market about to take off in 2012

Toronto tops New York in risk of condo bubble

Condo risk bubbles up

.Overall, housing sales were down 29.5% in February from a year ago and 24.8% for the first two months of the year.

On the high-rise side, while it may appear that sales are down from last year, it actually reflects the typical February lag
BILD president Joe Vaccaro said the current numbers are more in line with historical norms. “Following a slow period in late-2011, the low-rise sector has once again stabilized and we are seeing steady activity, particularly in the 905 markets,” he said. “On the high-rise side, while it may appear that sales are down from last year, it actually reflects the typical February lag as existing units are purchased while new condominium projects prepare to launch in the City of Toronto later this year.”

Prices also seem to have stabilized in the condo sector with the price per square foot up only 2% inn February from a year earlier. Low-rise prices were up 10% compared to a year earlier which BILD blamed on government regulatory issues and charges.

.Posted in: Economy, Mortgages, Real Estate Tags: Building Industry and Land Development Association, Canada housing, condominiums, housing market, Housing sales, Joe Vaccaro, Toronto housing market .


I have highlited a couple of points in this article. I don't know if they are indiciative of C01 or C08 but 2% increase year on year certainly would not justify $150/sq.ft. increases in price over resale over the next 4 years. I do appreciate this is not a direct comparison.
 
I agree, I did not think the layouts were great. It is amazing that they can have a 1 bedroom/den in 550 sq.ft. and a 2 bedroom in 625 sq.ft.
We bought for a family member a 2 bedroom "small condo" at 777 sq.ft. and I thought that was really small. Well laid out though our 777. This is 20% smaller.
My personal belief is that if there is a slowdown and there are vacancies to excess product, then renters are going to look at what is livable vs. just getting location and these "glorified dorm's" as you describew them cdr risk becoming unrentable or will be severely discounted thereby "killing" their value. If the market continues and the rental shortage continues despite the 48K new condos to come on line next 2 years, then I guess they will rent.
 
Last edited:
Found this article to be interesting
Neil Reynolds
Debt-heavy Canada shouldn’t be smug about its economy
NEIL REYNOLDS | Columnist profile | E-mail
OTTAWA— From Wednesday's Globe and Mail
Published Tuesday, Mar. 20, 2012 7:00PM EDT
Last updated Wednesday, Mar. 21, 2012 5:09AM EDT
For Greece, in economic terms, it’s now calendar year 1999. For Iceland, it’s 2000, the dawning of the millennium. For Portugal, Latvia and the United States, it’s 2002, a full decade ago. For Ireland, it’s early 2003; for Hungary, late 2003. For Britain and Spain, it’s 2004. For Italy, it’s 2005. For France, it’s 2006. For Germany, with the least “lost time” of the major industrialized countries, it’s late 2009.
The Economist magazine recently calculated the number of years lost by countries that were hardest hit in the economic crises of 2007-08 – and published the results under the wise-guy headline “The Proust Index” – a remembrance of the economic retreats of the past five years. By this calculation, none of the major industrialized countries has yet made good its losses (though Germany is getting close).
But what calendar year is it in Canada? Why did The Economist forget Canada in this retrospective analysis? Aren’t we the best-performing member of the Group of Seven leading industrialized countries? Didn’t we fully recover before anyone else? Did not Finance Minister Jim Flaherty say so himself?
Well, yes, he did say so – or, at least, appeared to say so. Mr. Flaherty made his back-to-the-future speech, implying full recovery, as early as the Couchiching Conference in August, 2010. “Our nation has weathered the deepest … global downturn since the 1930s in far better shape than other major industrialized countries,” he said then. “Canada has virtually recouped a recession’s worth of economic decline.”
What does it mean to virtually recoup – if not to fully recover? In terms of The Economist’s calendar, in other words, Canada had already recaptured all its lost time (or virtually all of it) and was living once again in the here-and-now.
The Economist dissents. Canadians, it implies (by way of omission), are still poorer than they were when the financial crises hit. One important standard, the magazine said, is per-capita income. Measured by real gross domestic product per person in the G7 countries for the past five years, it said, “only Germany has not gone backward.” Perhaps. But this assertion is dubious at best.
The World Bank reports that, at the end of 2010, Canada’s per-capita GDP (based on the purchasing power of the Canadian dollar) stood at $38,989 (U.S.) – only $5 less than it was at its pre-recession peak in 2008 ($38,994).
Judged by other criteria, however, Germany has performed significantly better than Canada. Germany has an unemployment rate of 5 per cent; Canada, 7.5 per cent. Germany’s budget deficit is 1.2 per cent of GDP; Canada’s, 5 per cent; Germany’s current account, which tracks imports and exports, runs a huge surplus; Canada, a deficit equal to 3 per cent of GDP.
Bank of Montreal, in its year-end review of 2011, compared German and Canadian economic performance based on five criteria: unemployment, inflation, fiscal management, current account and credit rating (where we have a triple-A tie).
BMO gave Germany an outstanding performance score of 89.2, Canada, 81.6. So we’re not the best-performing economy in the G7; we’re the second best. (“No. 2 is okay,” BMO economist Benjamin Reitzes said. “We are in the upper echelon of the G7.”)
In another international comparison, the Conference Board of Canada has tended, in the past couple of years, to mark Canada as a B-grade country (ranking ninth) among the 27 Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development democratic and industrialized countries. This suggests that competition is easier in the G7 than in the OECD countries. In the larger field of competitors, countries such as Australia and Sweden compete for first.
What is certain is that it will take years for some hard-hit countries to fully recover from the financial crises. The International Monetary Fund said Italy, three years hence, will still be poorer (in real-dollar terms) than it was in 2007.
The Economist notes that British households have lost close to $800-billion in the past five years, much of it in property-based wealth; U.S. households have lost $9.2-trillion. “For some [countries],” the magazine said, “the time lost to the crisis will never be recovered.”For Canada, the best may yet to be – or not. As Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney keeps telling us, Canadians are deeply in debt and a housing crisis, if such occurs, could wipe out household wealth, too. It is far too early, as Mr. Flaherty knows, to brag.
 
I agree, I did not think the layouts were great. It is amazing that they can have a 1 bedroom/den in 550 sq.ft. and a 2 bedroom in 625 sq.ft.
We bought for a family member a 2 bedroom "small condo" at 777 sq.ft. and I thought that was really small. Well laid out though our 777. This is 20% smaller.
My personal belief is that if there is a slowdown and there are vacancies to excess product, then renters are going to look at what is livable vs. just getting location and these "glorified dorm's" as you describew them cdr risk becoming unrentable or will be severely discounted thereby "killing" their value. If the market continues and the rental shortage continues despite the 48K new condos to come on line next 2 years, then I guess they will rent.

I posted this in another thread:

http://www.thestar.com/news/article/1148728--hume-are-toronto-condo-towers-slums-in-the-making

I know there are enthusiasts on this site that care about height, human scale, built form etc but fact is these suits sizes are getting ridiculous. How are these viable living conditions? As you mention your 777 'small condo' is anything but given the new trends. It's scary to think > 900 sq ft is becoming a rarity.

But what really stands out are the prices. Wow.
 

Top