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Baby, we got a bubble!?

You're right, but the housing market is different for a lot of people. It's not as if everyone who owns a house to live in is suddenly just going to sell the house and rent because s/he is worried about a 15% real estate price decline.

I've been telling people that at these price points, short term condo speculation has become a very risky game, but I don't discourage people from buying a place in this market if it's their primary residence, as long as they don't get caught up in some stupid bidding war or something. My sis just bought a place, and when the prices have been high for places she checked out, I've voiced my reservations, but she ended up being quite the bargainer and got a reasonable deal for this market, for her primary residence. Sure, it's quite possible that even with her reasonable price (I'd guess around 4-5% or so below what I considered reasonable market value) a price decline of 15% would mean her home would be only worth ~90% of what she paid for it, but she still needs a place to live.

However, if she had said she wanted to spend that money as an investment, I would have been far less supportive, even if she could get the place for 5% under market value.

I totally agree with your differentiation Eug between living vs. investing.

That said, however, if everything we read is correct; condo buying in the C01 area is in the pervue of end users but also to a significant degree "investors". Whether the investors are 30% or up to 70% which are numbers I have seen bantered around; as we have I believe in the past agreed; it is those at the margin who determine real estate prices.

If 90% say of the larger market is made up home owners; but 30-70% of the new product in the area is investors; and say they act as investors meaning they evaluate the purchase and if not profitable with no clear view of reasonable profit in a reasonable time future and unload the investment; this 30-70% of new product is now not the 10% of the market coming to sell but rather represent a much larger proportion.

Assuming investors have placed less equity than say long term buy and hold home owners, if there is a downturn and in particular if there is a sustained and significant downturn, they may want/have to get out of the real estate market. They hence influence prices far more than you or I do when talking about our principal residence because we are going to shrug our shoulders and say "we have to live somewhere and I am not selling".

The investor will say or should say; I will dump my non performing investment in favour of one that makes more sense.
 
interested said:
You are doing something very smart but have a distinct advantage; not just you but all realtors.
I agree, real estate agents have quite the advantage here, and the experience of a real estate insider cannot be extrapolated to the general population.

That said, from what my acquaintances tell me, it's not hard to get that real estate licence. I know a few people who have gotten them, even though they have never used them other than for a rare property purchase to live in. Still, getting a licence to rarely use is not the same thing as being a true real estate insider. I'd guess that several of those acquaintances with those largely unused licences are completely clueless to the pulse of the current RE market, because they simply don't care about real estate at this time.
 
Foreign investment in Canadian real estate

IMO, this is not healthy:

Canadian real estate - a piggy bank for Chinese investors

Late last month, a 153-unit condo development in New Westminster sold out in two and a half hours.

More than 400 potential buyers lined up for the sales day. For every unit sold, there was at least one back-up offer made. There was nothing overtly special about the project, which will be completed by fall 2012.

The two-phase development, called Eight West, is located at 21 8th Avenue in the heart of New Westminster, a traditional-design and mix of town homes and condos starting at $168,800 - standard mid-market housing for the Lower Mainland. But for reasons only understood by the increasing number of local realtors who have learned to target the Mainland Chinese market, it held an irresistible allure to the new Chinese buyers looking to invest their money in the Canadian housing market.

Bill Morrison, the marketer in charge of selling the project, says he realized halfway through his marketing plan that Chinese buyers were showing interest. Once he tweaked his focus to include Chinese-specific media, he had a buying frenzy on his hands, with a line-up around the block.

“I could have sold double that amount,†says Mr. Morrison. “We had no idea that would be the result. There was a huge demand.â€

Of the 153 units sold, about 40 per cent went to Chinese buyers, and many of them would hardly be familiar with B.C.’s historic former capital city. A major marketing feature was the removal of the Harmonized Sales Tax, and while that strategy appealed to locals, it didn’t matter so much to the new Chinese buyer, says Mr. Morrison. They would have regarded the tax as little more than the cost of doing business, he says. And unlike their Hong Kong predecessors who made up the buying wave of the 90s in Vancouver, Coquitlam and Richmond, the Mainland Chinese buyer is more open to all regions of Metro Vancouver.


---

The Chinese are attracted to Vancouver, but Toronto has its enticements too. Vancouver marketer Cam Good recently helped sell out an Etobicoke development called Westlake, which, he says, was largely snapped up by Mainland Chinese buyers. Mr. Good has taken his marketing strategy one step further. He says he’s the only Canadian realtor to open offices in Beijing and Hong Kong, directly marketing projects in White Rock, Squamish, and the Toronto area to Chinese buyers who want to protect their new found wealth by tying it up in Canadian real estate.
 
This could be a possible cause of a burst Canadian real estate bubble ... Chinese buyers suddenly having to liquidate assets ... thousands of condos flooding the market all at the same time.
 
New York City ... people awash with cash would rather be renting than owning apartments.

Would this scenario play out in Toronto ... or Vancouver ? Something tells me something unpleasant is just over the horizon.

http://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory?id=13722640

This article is a direct response to all those who say buying for price appreciation alone is the way to go.

That said, the US is in a lot of trouble and it will be prolonged. We all know that. Ben Burnanke can't figure
out how to get out of QE2. No one knows and with uncertainty, and subsidized rent, why would you not rent.
Add that money is tight for those wanting mortgages.. and you have the recipe for renting.
 
IMO, this is not healthy:

Canadian real estate - a piggy bank for Chinese investors

Late last month, a 153-unit condo development in New Westminster sold out in two and a half hours.

More than 400 potential buyers lined up for the sales day. For every unit sold, there was at least one back-up offer made. There was nothing overtly special about the project, which will be completed by fall 2012.

The two-phase development, called Eight West, is located at 21 8th Avenue in the heart of New Westminster, a traditional-design and mix of town homes and condos starting at $168,800 - standard mid-market housing for the Lower Mainland. But for reasons only understood by the increasing number of local realtors who have learned to target the Mainland Chinese market, it held an irresistible allure to the new Chinese buyers looking to invest their money in the Canadian housing market.

Bill Morrison, the marketer in charge of selling the project, says he realized halfway through his marketing plan that Chinese buyers were showing interest. Once he tweaked his focus to include Chinese-specific media, he had a buying frenzy on his hands, with a line-up around the block.

“I could have sold double that amount,” says Mr. Morrison. “We had no idea that would be the result. There was a huge demand.”

Of the 153 units sold, about 40 per cent went to Chinese buyers, and many of them would hardly be familiar with B.C.’s historic former capital city. A major marketing feature was the removal of the Harmonized Sales Tax, and while that strategy appealed to locals, it didn’t matter so much to the new Chinese buyer, says Mr. Morrison. They would have regarded the tax as little more than the cost of doing business, he says. And unlike their Hong Kong predecessors who made up the buying wave of the 90s in Vancouver, Coquitlam and Richmond, the Mainland Chinese buyer is more open to all regions of Metro Vancouver.


---

The Chinese are attracted to Vancouver, but Toronto has its enticements too. Vancouver marketer Cam Good recently helped sell out an Etobicoke development called Westlake, which, he says, was largely snapped up by Mainland Chinese buyers. Mr. Good has taken his marketing strategy one step further. He says he’s the only Canadian realtor to open offices in Beijing and Hong Kong, directly marketing projects in White Rock, Squamish, and the Toronto area to Chinese buyers who want to protect their new found wealth by tying it up in Canadian real estate.

This is a huge problem. The one thing I fear the most. China is managing to export its real estate bubble to Vancouver and it would appear even to areas where people are not interested in a big way. This may pan out for those smart purchasers or it may just prove to be the next bubble. Shear rampant speculation and remiscent of the lineups in 1988 and 1989 before the bubble burst in Toronto.

Many cities if my understanding is correct in China are starting to see deflation in prices. Add that Chinese are limited to 2 properties; they are looking to place their money elsewhere. They are bidding up areas in Canada that if the article is right show they have little or no understanding. The clear hope is to be able to get in and out and make money. When/if China does implode its real estate market; look to those suffering there to take their money off the table here and the Chinese bubble if it deflates may in fact deflate the Canadian one.

This type of article single handedly worries me more than any other issue.

In Toronto, fortunately, the market is big enough that the Chinese speculator does not make up the bulk of the sales though may be contributing more to the new sales. That said, however, because as I pointed out in other posts, given that it is those at the margin who determine realty prices, there will be a problem.

Toronto will maintain I believe a core of people who will buy if prices drop to "reasonable levels" whatever one may determine is reasonable going forward, but condos in areas like Westlake does not have local population to justify an upward bid and likely is much more maintained by
this speculative group going forward and it population potentially less insulated in a downturn than Central Toronto which still has industry/financial services etc. to somewhat justify higher prices.
 
Another interesting article. Re the US. From the Financial Post.

http://www.nationalpost.com/news/home+prices+drop+Shiller+says/4923041/story.html

U.S. home prices may drop 25%, Shiller says

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John Gittelsohn, Bloomberg News · Jun. 10, 2011 | Last Updated: Jun. 10, 2011 3:05 AM ET

Robert Shiller, the economist who co-founded the S&P/Case-Shiller index of U.S. home prices, said a further decline in property values of 10% to 25% in the next five years "wouldn't surprise me at all."

"There's no precedent for this statistically, so no way to predict," Prof. Shiller said Thursday at a conference hosted by Standard & Poor's in New York.

U.S. home prices plunged 33% in 20 cities through March from their 2006 peak, reaching their lowest level since 2003, according to a Case-Shiller report on May 31. The decline signalled a "double dip," as the index fell below its previous post-housing-bubble low set in April 2009. Prices more than doubled from 2000 to July 2006.

A backlog of foreclosures poised to hit the market means prices may stay depressed, dissuading builders from starting new construction. Unemployment, which rose to 9.1% in May, and stricter lending conditions are signs that any recovery in housing may take years.

Prof. Shiller's comments paint a more pessimistic possibility for home prices than other forecasts. Additional declines will be "incremental," Bank of America Corp. chief executive Brian Moynihan said on June 1.

While it would be a surprise to see prices fall steeply, it's possible for homes to lose more value if inflation picks up, Karl Case, co-founder of the index, said Thursday.

"You could have flat nominal prices, but still have it go down 20%," Prof. Case said at the conference. "If house prices stabilize, they could still go down in real terms. If we had inflation, it'd be great, because it'd mask a 25% decline."

Forecasting home prices is impossible because there's no historical precedent for the real estate bubble of the 2000s and the subsequent price drop, Prof. Shiller said.

"In real terms, there has never been a bust of this proportion," he said. "Even in the Great Depression, home prices fell nominally approximately almost as much as they did recently. But that was with all prices falling. So [real] real estate prices didn't go down hardly at all during the Depression."
 
The majority of these "Chinese" buyers mentioned in the press are actually Canadian citizens. It seems like certain publications are attempting to portray all Chinese buyers in Canada as clueless speculators bidding up prices and making housing unaffordable for us regular Canadians.

Chinese-Canadians and immigrants, not investors from China, largely driving market, experts say

http://www.vancouversun.com/busines...rket+experts/4931299/story.html#ixzz1P5VWnhA1

A growing belief that Metro Vancouver's hot housing market is being driven by Asian investment, primarily from mainland China, is a misconception, according to experts in the real estate field.

In fact, they say, evidence suggests buyers are mainly Canadian citizens, immigrants or new residents in Canada -many with strong links to mainland China and many residing and working in China while their families establish roots in B.C.

Most purchases are also being made as long-term holdings - in some cases for children attending local universities -with little of the quick "flipping" prevalent in previous hot markets.

"From what we've seen from most of the major launches, it's a different buying habit than previous runs on the market," Jennifer Podmore, real estate advisory leader for accounting giant Deloite, said in an interview Friday. "Generally, we're not seeing the investor as the main drivers of the market. There are certainly a lot more Asian purchasers, but not Asian investors coming to purchase a condo and then leaving.

"Most [buyers] have strong ties to Vancouver, meaning they're Canadians, immigrants or live here," added Podmore.

Daryl Simpson, Bosa Properties' vice-president of sales and marketing, agreed, citing their 202-unit Sovereign tower in Metrotown that recently sold out in one day, largely to ethnic Chinese buyers.

However, it's incorrect to identify the buyers as mainland Chinese, he said, because most came from other parts of Metro Vancouver. Some may have connections with mainland China, but no more than "half a dozen buyers" had addresses outside Canada.

In 2010 B.C. received about 47 per cent of Canada's investor-class immigrants, who must show a net worth of at least $1.6 million and are required to make an $800,000 investment in Canada, Podmore added.

While Chinese immigrants to B.C. represented about 19 per cent of the total immigration, Chinese and Taiwanese investor-class immigrants represented 79 per cent of the investor category.

Podmore's and Simpson's comments follow a surge in investment, largely by ethnic Asian buyers with links to mainland China, that's branching out from Richmond and Vancouver's west side as buyers look to other communities.

Several condominium towers in Burnaby, including Sovereign, sold out quickly in recent weeks, mainly to Asian buyers.

"If you see the type of demand that we've seen on the west side of Vancouver and Richmond spread elsewhere, it will push up prices, but it's unlikely to have the same dramatic effect on prices because there's much more of a supply of units elsewhere," Tsur Somerville, director of the centre for urban economics and real estate at Sauder School of Business at the University of B.C., said, adding that it's hard to conclude mainland Chinese buyers are behind the sales.

Robert Dominick, vice-president of sales and acquisitions for WestStone Properties, said Asian buyers are fuelling sales at his 393-unit Surrey City Centre highrise, Ultra.

"We opened the door for [our most recent] sales two weeks ago. We didn't advertise and simply through phone calls to Asian realtors in our first week we generated 23 sales."

Dominick said some buyers showed up on buying trips organized by Chinese-based tour operators, but that most aren't interested in "flipping."

He said many buyers involve China-based husbands with family in Metro Vancouver, while some want a condo for their children attending the nearby Simon Fraser University campus.

Polygon Homes president Neil Chrystal said it's difficult to say how many buyers are mainland Chinese investors, adding that "we see a lot of people speaking Mandarin, which is an indication." He noted that south Surrey, north Delta and West Vancouver are becoming more popular with Asian buyers.

Chrystal said that while their Chancellor highrise and two other Burnaby towers experienced lineups of predominantly Asian buyers, "a lot of the people were locals looking to downsize."

Meanwhile, a recent Landcor Data Corp. report said many of today's Chinese immigrants arrive "with fortunes intact, especially in the Lower Mainland, eagerly buying their own bits of the good life and helping buoy up real estate prices."

The report looked at luxury home sales in Richmond and Vancouver, matching new owners' Chinese surnames to see how many purchasers were Chinese, with 74 per cent fitting the criteria in 2010.

A recent China Daily report said Chinese home buyers have become the second-largest group of international buyers of U.S. homes -after Canadians.
 
these 2 articles seem to contradict each other ...
are they foreign or local Chinese buyers ?!?

if local, then our gov't should have no problem or resistance to enacting foreign R/E restrictions like many other nations, including China itself.


The majority of these "Chinese" buyers mentioned in the press are actually Canadian citizens. It seems like certain publications are attempting to portray all Chinese buyers in Canada as clueless speculators bidding up prices and making housing unaffordable for us regular Canadians.

Chinese-Canadians and immigrants, not investors from China, largely driving market, experts say

http://www.vancouversun.com/busines...rket+experts/4931299/story.html#ixzz1P5VWnhA1


Canadian real estate - a piggy bank for Chinese investors
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/life...gy-bank-for-chinese-investors/article2055668/
 
There is a big difference between Toronto's and Vancouver's condo buildings. In Toronto, most if not all condo buildings don't have any caps on the number of units that can be rented out. So, anybody can buy condos and then rent them out (i.e., investor-driven). In Vancouver, most condo buildings have caps in place, i.e., the number of units that can be rented out by the owners cannot exceed whatever prescribed number, implying that most condo units are owner-occupied.
If the Chinese are buying entire floors of units in Vancouver, how are they being allowed to rent them out ?
 
There is a big difference between Toronto's and Vancouver's condo buildings. In Toronto, most if not all condo buildings don't have any caps on the number of units that can be rented out. So, anybody can buy condos and then rent them out (i.e., investor-driven). In Vancouver, most condo buildings have caps in place, i.e., the number of units that can be rented out by the owners cannot exceed whatever prescribed number, implying that most condo units are owner-occupied.
If the Chinese are buying entire floors of units in Vancouver, how are they being allowed to rent them out ?



guess it depends if complaints are being brought to the attention of the board of directors.

i believe the BoD could amend their condo docs to cap/restrict the number of rental units and also, if the rentals are short-term or long-term (min. 1 year lease), etc.
 
I wonder how one would set that up? Person A is allowed to rent out and Person B is not allowed?
Surely that would be discriminatory and unless when buying you would sign a legal document stating you were not going to rent it out, thereby surely creating 2 classes of condos within a condo building; I can't see how this would stand up.
You buy to live or for a family member, then decide to rent and you can't? How does your neighbour say you can't rent but I can?
I don't follow this at all. What am I missing here?
 
I wonder how one would set that up? Person A is allowed to rent out and Person B is not allowed?
Surely that would be discriminatory and unless when buying you would sign a legal document stating you were not going to rent it out, thereby surely creating 2 classes of condos within a condo building; I can't see how this would stand up.
You buy to live or for a family member, then decide to rent and you can't? How does your neighbour say you can't rent but I can?
I don't follow this at all. What am I missing here?

Sorry interested, I have nothing to back this up. But I asked a similar question years ago and I was told or read that condos here used to have rules like this, but someone took it to court and it was struck down. That's why there are no restrictions on renting (at least in Ontario). If I knew of a building that forbid renting, i would probably buy there!
I'm sure if I'm wrong someone will correct me.
 

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