cdr108
Senior Member
thanks ... sometimes i just focus on dt when i think of condos.
simuls did a list for 2010 completions and 32 projects were on it for dt alone !
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Baby, we got a bubble!?
- Thread starter simuls
- Start date
thanks ... sometimes i just focus on dt when i think of condos.
simuls did a list for 2010 completions and 32 projects were on it for dt alone !
waterloowarrior
Senior Member
Altus is saying 25,000+ next year, but Urbanation says less than 17,000 (on its twitter feed)
(assuming they are talking about GTA wide)
(assuming they are talking about GTA wide)
simuls
Senior Member
In the downtown core, there have been less than 1500 completions (registered/saleable/rental) in 2009, a far cry from 15000 per year and there's no way we've averaged 15000/year over the last 5 years. 2007 was the year of the condo and that's where all this supply is coming from.
The Condo Observer
Active Member
Where do people / marketing agencies pull these numbers from?
As the previous post suggests, actual number of registered/ salable/ rentable units is an objective number, which I am assuming can be verified by checking with the agency(Provincial, I think) that registers buildings.....
Or perhaps TARION? Not sure if those numbers are public? Or what about the city, and the property tax roll....somewhere in there are real numbers to break through the hype.
As the previous post suggests, actual number of registered/ salable/ rentable units is an objective number, which I am assuming can be verified by checking with the agency(Provincial, I think) that registers buildings.....
Or perhaps TARION? Not sure if those numbers are public? Or what about the city, and the property tax roll....somewhere in there are real numbers to break through the hype.
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waterloowarrior
Senior Member
Maybe I've been interpreting the data wrong, but this was what I was using.
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egocheck
Banned
Is there a source for this data please?
If correct Toronto 2010/2011 will look like Miami, Phoenix and Las Vegas 2007-present. The party can only persist if the Middle Eastern and Asian capital keeps backstopping the sales otherwise it is game over for this market and we will be looking at 20%+ declines in price and probably 50% declines in sales.
If correct Toronto 2010/2011 will look like Miami, Phoenix and Las Vegas 2007-present. The party can only persist if the Middle Eastern and Asian capital keeps backstopping the sales otherwise it is game over for this market and we will be looking at 20%+ declines in price and probably 50% declines in sales.
simuls
Senior Member
It looks to be good data. I wonder where they get it from? I'll admit that my experience is with the downtown core and granted, most of those occupancies above are probably outside of this area. But in some ways, that makes next year even more problematic. It'd be great to get the above numbers broken down even further. I really really for the life of me can't think of where all those condo's are.
urbandreamer
recession proof
"High rise projects"
Do they count Regent Park and other TCHC buildings in the data?
Also, note the date on that chart: August 31, 2009. iirc, it was only since early September 2009 that condo sales have taken off.
Finally, guessing that at least 25% of projected 2010 projects will be delayed into 2011, really the numbers will be closer to 20-22,000 units.
Urbanation can't be trusted--they live off of condo sales.
Do they count Regent Park and other TCHC buildings in the data?
Also, note the date on that chart: August 31, 2009. iirc, it was only since early September 2009 that condo sales have taken off.
Finally, guessing that at least 25% of projected 2010 projects will be delayed into 2011, really the numbers will be closer to 20-22,000 units.
Urbanation can't be trusted--they live off of condo sales.
MadMax
Active Member
How do we know it's not all of Canada? It doesn't say anywhere in there the GTA...or maybe they are counting the occupancies that were supposed to happen in 2009 and are only happening in 2010 because of delays?
sorry....just saw "Greater Toronto Area" in the header, my bad.
sorry....just saw "Greater Toronto Area" in the header, my bad.
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waterloowarrior
Senior Member
updated numbers
Stand by for a mega moving day
Record 47,000 new condos about to come on stream in Toronto
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/stand-by-for-a-mega-moving-day/article1403772/
TERRENCE BELFORD
Published on Thursday, Dec. 17, 2009 11:24AM EST
Last updated on Friday, Dec. 18, 2009 3:12AM EST
The next two years promise to reshape the look and feel of the Greater Toronto Area in ways probably not felt since the building boom of the 1970s. Then, we went out. This time, we are going up.
At the same time, the Toronto area is about to have its own exodus – inward not out.
Quiet suburban neighbourhoods are about to vibrate with new life. Old, once-neglected industrial areas in the city core are about to be transformed into mini-villages.
Record condo sales in 2007 and the early months of 2008 are about to be translated into move-in dates.
In the GTA's best years, about 15,000 condo units become available for occupancy, says George Carras, president of RealNet Canada Inc.
Over the coming two years, Mr. Carras predicts we will see about 47,000 new condo suites become available to their owners – 27,000 of them next year.
Ben Myers, executive vice-president of Urbanation Inc., is more conservative in his estimates. He says the Metro Census Area will see about 17,000 new condos finally occupied in 2010, and 19,000 reach the same stage in 2011.
(A word of explanation here. RealNet tracks the GTA, which is larger than the CMA because it includes cities like Burlington and Oshawa. Mr. Carras says his 2010 figures represent 114 projects, which builders say will be ready for occupancy during the course of that year. Mr. Myers says the CMA area has 84 projects expected to be in the same condition.) Numbers aside, what they do agree on is that the next two years will not only see neighbourhoods such as downtown west, the Sheppard corridor, North York west and Mississauga city centre become heavily populated, but also experience an economic and business boom.
“There is going to be an enormous surge of new life in many areas of the GTA,†says Barry Lyon, president of N. Barry Lyon Consulting Ltd. “Residential drives retail, so that means the influx of all these people will spark a whole wave of new retail and service businesses in those areas.
“It will also be a boom time for moving companies, furniture stores, hardware stores – even dog-walking services. People moving into new homes need all these things, and when they are concentrated into specific neighbourhoods you can be certain business in those neighbourhoods will boom.â€
The importance of this great migration cannot be underestimated, all three men say.
Take the availability of rental suites downtown and the price you have to pay for one. Mr. Lyon suggests that up to 40 per cent of the new condo suites will be investor-owned and immediately put on the rental market.
That means almost 19,000 new suites will become available by the end of 2011. Right now, the vacancy rate for downtown condos is at or less than 1 per cent, Mr. Myers says. The new suites will not only ease the shortage, but also see landlords competing for tenants.
“That will likely mean rents may even ease somewhat in the shorter term,†Mr. Myers says.
Major retail chains are already taking note of the demographic shifts and planning new outlets to meet the needs of new residential populations, Mr. Carras says.
“Companies like Pizza Pizza track housing trends carefully and base their trading areas for each new location on what they see happening,†he says. “You can bet they are already planning new outlets in places like downtown west and along Sheppard in North York.â€
Mr. Lyon says supermarket chains are masters of demographics-based planning. He points to the new Sobeys on Bremner Boulevard near the Rogers Centre as an example of new-format supermarkets to serve new high-rise neighbourhoods.
“What is also going to change is the ethnic makeup of many neighbourhoods,†Mr. Lyon says. “Many of these condos were bought by new Canadians, so you are going to see much more diverse, multicultural neighbourhoods created.â€
But what all three also say is that the shape-shifting of the GTA is going to create significant new challenges.
One is an ever bigger shift to singles and couples and away from families in new high-density neighbourhoods. Condo suites large enough to accommodate growing families are far too expensive for the average family budget – even if builders were building them, Mr. Lyon says.
Another will be public transit.
“The TTC's planning still lags far behind need,†Mr. Lyon says. “The [Toronto] Transit Commission is planning stops where there is no population, and its response to rising costs of operation is to raise fares. Every time it does that it losesriders.â€
Special to The Globe and Mail
Stand by for a mega moving day
Record 47,000 new condos about to come on stream in Toronto
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/stand-by-for-a-mega-moving-day/article1403772/
TERRENCE BELFORD
Published on Thursday, Dec. 17, 2009 11:24AM EST
Last updated on Friday, Dec. 18, 2009 3:12AM EST
The next two years promise to reshape the look and feel of the Greater Toronto Area in ways probably not felt since the building boom of the 1970s. Then, we went out. This time, we are going up.
At the same time, the Toronto area is about to have its own exodus – inward not out.
Quiet suburban neighbourhoods are about to vibrate with new life. Old, once-neglected industrial areas in the city core are about to be transformed into mini-villages.
Record condo sales in 2007 and the early months of 2008 are about to be translated into move-in dates.
In the GTA's best years, about 15,000 condo units become available for occupancy, says George Carras, president of RealNet Canada Inc.
Over the coming two years, Mr. Carras predicts we will see about 47,000 new condo suites become available to their owners – 27,000 of them next year.
Ben Myers, executive vice-president of Urbanation Inc., is more conservative in his estimates. He says the Metro Census Area will see about 17,000 new condos finally occupied in 2010, and 19,000 reach the same stage in 2011.
(A word of explanation here. RealNet tracks the GTA, which is larger than the CMA because it includes cities like Burlington and Oshawa. Mr. Carras says his 2010 figures represent 114 projects, which builders say will be ready for occupancy during the course of that year. Mr. Myers says the CMA area has 84 projects expected to be in the same condition.) Numbers aside, what they do agree on is that the next two years will not only see neighbourhoods such as downtown west, the Sheppard corridor, North York west and Mississauga city centre become heavily populated, but also experience an economic and business boom.
“There is going to be an enormous surge of new life in many areas of the GTA,†says Barry Lyon, president of N. Barry Lyon Consulting Ltd. “Residential drives retail, so that means the influx of all these people will spark a whole wave of new retail and service businesses in those areas.
“It will also be a boom time for moving companies, furniture stores, hardware stores – even dog-walking services. People moving into new homes need all these things, and when they are concentrated into specific neighbourhoods you can be certain business in those neighbourhoods will boom.â€
The importance of this great migration cannot be underestimated, all three men say.
Take the availability of rental suites downtown and the price you have to pay for one. Mr. Lyon suggests that up to 40 per cent of the new condo suites will be investor-owned and immediately put on the rental market.
That means almost 19,000 new suites will become available by the end of 2011. Right now, the vacancy rate for downtown condos is at or less than 1 per cent, Mr. Myers says. The new suites will not only ease the shortage, but also see landlords competing for tenants.
“That will likely mean rents may even ease somewhat in the shorter term,†Mr. Myers says.
Major retail chains are already taking note of the demographic shifts and planning new outlets to meet the needs of new residential populations, Mr. Carras says.
“Companies like Pizza Pizza track housing trends carefully and base their trading areas for each new location on what they see happening,†he says. “You can bet they are already planning new outlets in places like downtown west and along Sheppard in North York.â€
Mr. Lyon says supermarket chains are masters of demographics-based planning. He points to the new Sobeys on Bremner Boulevard near the Rogers Centre as an example of new-format supermarkets to serve new high-rise neighbourhoods.
“What is also going to change is the ethnic makeup of many neighbourhoods,†Mr. Lyon says. “Many of these condos were bought by new Canadians, so you are going to see much more diverse, multicultural neighbourhoods created.â€
But what all three also say is that the shape-shifting of the GTA is going to create significant new challenges.
One is an ever bigger shift to singles and couples and away from families in new high-density neighbourhoods. Condo suites large enough to accommodate growing families are far too expensive for the average family budget – even if builders were building them, Mr. Lyon says.
Another will be public transit.
“The TTC's planning still lags far behind need,†Mr. Lyon says. “The [Toronto] Transit Commission is planning stops where there is no population, and its response to rising costs of operation is to raise fares. Every time it does that it losesriders.â€
Special to The Globe and Mail
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The Condo Observer
Active Member
http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=2359685
Hopefully the market will cool before any interventionist policy is drafted.
Hopefully the market will cool before any interventionist policy is drafted.
Eug
Senior Member
Wowsers. Average pricing for the 416 is within spitting distance of half a million $.
Dec. 2009 mid-month report:
The average resale home price during the first two weeks of December rose 17 per cent to $423,103. The year-to-date average was $395,411, up four per cent compared to the same period in 2008.
416: $460828 (+20.4%)
905: $393918 (+14.2%)
Dec. 2009 mid-month report:
The average resale home price during the first two weeks of December rose 17 per cent to $423,103. The year-to-date average was $395,411, up four per cent compared to the same period in 2008.
416: $460828 (+20.4%)
905: $393918 (+14.2%)
I wonder if it'd be kosher to require that any purchase with 10% down or less have an amortization period of 30 years or less.
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cdr108
Senior Member
i wish they would publish the median price also.
CMHC requirements should be changed to 10% DP minimum as a first step;
but if the information provided by realtors that alot of buyers are foreign investors/flippers, then our tax system should be changed to penalize that kind of activity as inflated prices affect local purchasers.
Therion
Senior Member
The easiest and least interventionist way to cool the market down without crashing it would be to increase the DP requirement and decrease the max amortization, to say 15%/25 years. I'm actually more in favour of the amortization period decrease. Some people might have the cash-flow but not the DP, which is the situation I was in 3 years ago when I bought my place.