Keith, You want more of the same and expect a different result.
My job as a regional analyst gives me a fair bit of insight I assure you.
My point in this entire discussion is the strategy we've used for 7 years and the one you want to continue is not working. As I said early on in this topic, you nor I are experts and to pretend we have an answer to success would by lying. I can be critical of the current policy and see it's not working without knowing how to fix it.
The problem with the current policy is implementation. We (US/NATO) did a half-assed job when the US ran off into Iraq. There were points during the invasion phase of the Iraq war where there was almost no UAV coverage over Afghanistan...just as NATO was trying to corner the Taliban and AQ. So now we are stuck making up for it.
I have my criticisms of the current strategy. To start with the US needs to put in significant resources into Afghanistan. Just as much as they have done with Iraq. Everyone forgets that, at least with Iraq you have social, organizational and physical infrastructure (however inadequate) that was available after the invasion. Afghanistan by contrast had nothing. I am also critical of the way certain countries conduct ops. Part of the reason Canada has such high casualties is that we patrol aggressively. We do our best to seek out the enemy instead of waiting for him to come to us. Nor do we drive around in Humvees not interacting with locals. That has the added benefit of re-assuring the population and building relationships with them. They come to see that those crazy Canadians are here to help. That message is reinforced with development aid in the districts we engage in. Concurrent with that we are working hard to build up governance, train the army, train the police force, train the judiciary, build up social infrastructure, etc. Indeed, if you look at the new US strategy for Afghanistan it's basically the Canadian strategy in Kandahar taken to the national level.
The problem that we've had is that we don't have enough boots on the ground. Kandahar is the size of Nova Scotia and we are trying to secure it with 1 reinforced infantry battalion (about 800-100) personnel (the other 1500 personnel are support and development staff). For comparison, the Toronto Police Service has over 5000 cops...yet we still get violence in Toronto. Just imagine what would happen if Toronto got down to say about 500 cops for the whole city. Now you get a picture of the challenge we have in Kandahar.
The biggest challenge that we have however are the Afghans themselves. The Afghan government is extremely corrupt, lacks resources, and misuses the resources it does have. Until that changes it'll be hard to convince the average Afghan that progress is being made. Yet, how do you change a democratically elected government? Should the west simply install a puppet Afghan regime so that we can get development going at our preferred pace?
The Taliban is in contol of the majority of the country, their violence toward the citizens of Afghanistan has not subsided, I don't know where you got this 90% to 10% split.
The Taliban is not 'in control' of the majority of Afghanistan. That's flat out wrong. They have a presence in a good chunk of the districts but they don't have all out control in any and really contest government writ in a few. The observation on the distribution of violence was observed by the Canadian general who was in charge of RC(south). It's repeated here in US congressional testimony:
http://2002-2009-fpc.state.gov/107344.htm
And it's borne out in the news. How often do you hear about attacks in northern Afghanistan? When was the last time you heard of an attack in Badakshan, Bagdhis, Ghore, Sare Pol, etc? Most of the attacks happen in eastern and southern Afghanistan.
This is the problem with just reading a western newspaper. The media has really done a piss-poor job of analyzing the war in Aghanistan. They don't cover any of the development so everyone at home thinks we are just blowing up people and things there. The western media also does not cover the ethnic complexity of Afghanistan. Do you really think the 60% or so of the population that is not Pashtun really wants to be ruled by a hardline, fundamentalist Pashtun regime which takes orders from Islamabad (Pakistan is the sworn enemy for many Afghans)? Heck, most of the Pashtuns themselves don't like the hardline stance of the Taliban. They supported them because they were better than the alternative...feudalism and warlordism in the pre-Taliban era. They may have quibbles with the way NATO operates but I assure you that no Afghan I have ever met said that they prefer to live under the Taliban if a viable alternative (stable government) was available. The problem for us today is that the Kabul government does a poor job of governing and often NATO gets stuck with the blame.
As for the surveys......look at the questions they ask. They never ask do you want NATO to leave and the Taliban to come back. And a last word on surveys in Afghanistan. They are notoriously difficult. Afghan culture demands that they don't cause offence. So that means most Afghans you poll will always agree with whatever question you ask them. It takes a lot of digging to get out their real opinions. Simply asking passers by on street corners (the survey techniques of half these NGO pollsters) will yield absolutely nothing useful.
That said I am under no under illusions that every Afghan loves NATO. We have to improve governance and we have to improve security and then they might begin to trust us. But to do that requires more than what we are doing now.
Lastly, I will challenge you to present an alternative viable plan. You say we are doing more of the same. That statement belies your knowledge of what we are doing. The mission has changed significantly since it began and it is due to change significantly this year. We are not 'doing more of the same.' But I challenge you to present an alternative. Should we pull out and let the Taliban just have at the Afghan people? Is that your preferred solution? If you don't want more of the same, what exactly is it that you want?
