Admiral Beez
Superstar
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2024 United States presidential election
- Thread starter Jonny5
- Start date
kEiThZ
Superstar
Swiss cheese model. There's more than hole lining up here.
Every incumbent lost in 2024. So the economy is substantially to blame. Ironically, Biden has achieved the mythical soft landing of avoiding a recession with just a bit more inflation. And voters hated it.
They might have gotten a pass, if they hadn't been softer on immigration. Biden basically saved deportation only for those committing crimes. This angered a whole lot of working class that is pissed about perceived competition for resources and opportunities.
But there's some other stuff brewing that Democrats find uncomfortable. Republicans ran $30M of ads about trans stuff. That issue rocketed up from $22 to #2 at one point. There's a perception that the Democrats care more about the culture stuff than economic policy. And given the homophobia and misogyny in ethnic communities, this contributed to the shift in minorities to the Republicans.
Harris ran a really good campaign. She was saddled with too late an economic recovery. Baggage from 2019 about being woke and killing fracking, which doesn't sell in 2025. And a Democratic Party that is full off cultural bag that kills their appeal even when their policies are wildly popular.
old boy
Senior Member
I very much disagree.
US Bankruptcies hit a 13-year high last year, and were up massively from 2020 and 2021.
2020 was, of course an outlier year, so lets set that aside:
View attachment 610955
US bankruptcies hit 13-year peak in 2023; 50 new filings in December
Companies in the industrials, healthcare and consumer discretionary sectors filed for the most bankruptcies in 2023.www.spglobal.com
You would be right to point out that the two lowest years were both under Biden; however, that was Covid Relief money, so they too are outliers.
The correct comparison then is to 2017-2019 under Trump.and certainly, the 2023 number jumps out.
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A look at the inflation rate shows a very clear issue as well: (Credit embedded)
View attachment 610957
Now, the U.S. also had high wage growth over much of this period, but overall, inflation eroded earnings.
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Poverty has also spiked.
Understanding the NY Post is not a great source, but they are not responsible for underlying data:
View attachment 610959
In Biden’s war on poverty, poverty — especially for kids — is winning
The president whose policy obsession from Day 1 has been not to grow the economy but to reduce income inequality has presided over a near-record surge in the percentage of Americans in poverty.nypost.com
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To be clear, I don't think that justifies or excuses voting for Trump, I'm merely stating that there is legitimate reason to be concerned about one's pocket book in much of the U.S.
Now we agree here, that scapegoating, fear mongering, hate promoting, and finger-pointing were definitely all strategies employed in the Trump campaign, and we agree they're disgusting.
But he's mobilizing angry people.
Yes, he's directing that anger in a self-serving and deeply disturbing way, but the underlying phenomenon of how people perceive their welfare really isn't his. Its merely what he has ruthlessly exploited.
Turning fear into hate is on him. But the underlying fear/anger........while stoked by him, wasn't caused by him.It's
old boy
Senior Member
It's that very mean-spirited stoking that becomes something of an end unto itself. Sure, punditry finds many reasons, after the fact, why Trump trounced the Democrats. If there's one good thing to come out of it all, it's that America may have avoided another insurrection, and that inclination has zip to do with the economy.
goreckm
Active Member
I haven't seen a study, but just general gut feel makes me think the right talks way more about gender than the left.
Yes. The left accepts people as people. The right obsesses over how wrong, sinful, mentally ill etc people are who don’t meet some imaginary restrictions about how people should live and love
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Admiral Beez
Superstar
I wish Trump had won in 2020. We’d be rid of him now…. Unless he refused to go.
christiesplits
Senior Member
I'd reckon no more than 1000 independents had the trans stuff as their ballot issue. Trans issues are red meat for the GOP base, but it's not what moves the undecideds. The exit polls showed that cost of living and the economy were the biggest concerns.
I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see him give that a go
Northern Light
Superstar
I think that's too far the other way.
A great deal of 'the left' in the U.S, here, or anywhere else absolutely shames people, name calls, and denigrates if someone does not share their beliefs.
There's certainly a ferocious anti-Israel segment, we're not talking here about differences of opinion on Israeli policy, but fundamental belief that being Israeli or supporting Israel's existence is a sin.
Equally ask many women on the left who have expressed a desire to prioritize staying home with young children, or having a large family over a career if they feel equally valued as the career-driven.
Everyone here will know I'm a champion of gender equity, including in workplace opportunity, and should know, that I have serious concerns w/the current Israeli leadership and war efforts;
Notwithstanding that, I can see where positions different from my own, or differently nuanced are not taken well.
I also know and have worked with wonderful women, who casually discuss the evil of 'The Patriarchy' and how 'Men' are all 'x' etc; when conscious of my presence, they'll dutifully say 'doesn't apply to you'........ but...
I'm not really buying overall that the left-ist base is even remotely accepting of dissent or variation of its own dogma.
Yes, the right is every bit as bad (maybe worse)........but I won't free-pass my own side, nor do I think its useful to imagine that everyone on the other is some torch-carrying witch burner.
Most people are in-betweens, with a leaning. Most are also low-information voters, making decisions based on a mixture of personal circumstance, peer pressure, a smattering of sounds bites and a 'gut feel'.
As noted above, I think this is too much of an overreach.
We could talk about George W. Bush, who spoke really good Spanish, and whose wife was Hispanic
Or, how about we mention Pierre Polievre whose wife Anaida is Venezuelan She is also not some demure stay-at-home mom, she's a publisher, has a had a long working career in politics, speaks 3 languages (English, Spanish and French) and is a university graduate.
How does that conform to the stereotype?
One can also note that several female Governors, current and former are Republican, not only did 'the right' vote for a woman to do a job and an arguably powerful one, these were generally all women with solid academic and professional CVs.
In the case of Nikki (Nimarata) Hailey, they also voted in a child of Sikh immigrants.
None of which is to say that sexism, racism and homophobia don't have a much larger and more open/visible home on the right side of the political spectrum; but its wrong to broad-brush everyone or even the majority of that group as closely holding such views.
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Worth adding, 'the right' has elected multiple female Premiers in Canada, though I very much disagree with the current Premier of Alberta on a much of her policy and her presentation of same, she does have 2 university degrees and has worked steadily since graduating. In fact, more women have been elected Premier under a conservative banner (includes Social Credit, BC Liberal, and Wildrose parties) than under the Liberal banner.
Meanwhile Stephen Harper appointed an openly gay man to a senior position in his cabinet.
I disagreed with Mr. Harper on much as well; but I wouldn't conclude he spent his life tut-tutting others, viewing life through a lens of hate.
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kEiThZ
Superstar
Nobody runs $30M worth of ads to move a thousand independents. You really think Republican operative are utterly clueless and the win was just luck? Come on.
There's this survey of those who didn't vote for Harris making the rounds. And it's the most detailed post-mortem survey yet. It's clear there are cultural issues at play. And it goes well beyond the economy and immigration.
Source:
You don't have to like the findings. But recalibrating for the next round does require honesty.
kEiThZ
Superstar
They wouldn't have had Jan 6th. He would have really mismanaged COVID and drove the economy into a ditch. The Biden soft landing was something most people talked about before but never achieved cause it took a ton of finesse. Trump would never have pulled it off. He would have been unpopular leaving.
Now he's really going to be unhinged. And the ghouls he's bringing in are way, way worse. And the worst part? He's going to benefit a ton from Biden's economy, which will paper over a lot of the terrible stuff he's about to do.
kEiThZ
Superstar
Yes they do. Cause it sells. But it's also because the left has an activist class that basically pushes acceptance on the public to the point of backlash. There's actually trans folks who have compared these activists to locusts. They simply jump on to a cause and push maximalist positions till there's a backlash and then go on to the next cause. In the first Trump term they were all about race to the point where company and government had to have DEI policies. Under Biden they were about gender issues and straight up tried to normalize things that people just aren't comfortable with. Like say defending absolute rights on transitioning kids and trans women in women's sports. Whatever you think of these issues, it's clear the pubic isn't there yet. And pushing this instead of basics like proper healthcare and HRT for trans folks, did cause a backlash that the right takes advantage of.
I have heard it argued that people can buy acceptance till the point that it impacts them or costs them something. This is why LGB has an easier time once the culture flipped than TQ+ does. They were asking for nothing more than to be left alone and have basic rights that everybody enjoys. There is no cost to anybody else. That is very different from telling a suburban mom that their teenage daughter should accept a track meet against what was a boy a few years ago. That has a perceived real cost to that suburban mom.
kEiThZ
Superstar
I mean survey after survey says that economics played a major role. Not that culture wasn't a factor as I've argued above.
The reality is that the average person doesn't understand inflation. Even though inflation is now 2%, they see the new elevated prices and get upset. Inflation kills incumbents and has done so globally in 2024. I believe without exception. And keep in mind Americans saw higher inflation than us.
Yes there's a drawbridge mindset. But we should understand where that comes from. A lot of immigrants are working class. They suffered the most from inflation. And they suffer the most from wage suppression that is helped along by illegal immigration. In a sense, these immigrants are voting like every other working class American. So it's actually far less about race. The new twist here is that Democrats can't bank on these votes anymore, just from race.
kEiThZ
Superstar
Here's my ultimate prediction. If Trump actually implements much of what the ghouls around Trump want, this is going to go like the Iraq War. In 2004, plenty of people happy to support Bush and the Iraq War. In 2008, you wouldn't be able to find anybody who voted for Bush in 2004.