2023 Toronto Mayoral by-election

[christiesplits]

So, anyone else thinking that Ana Bailão is getting major hits for being first on a phone poll that probably lists candidates alphabetically and don't randomize choices?

Good question. I'm not an expert in survey design. I know some polling firms randomize the ordering for each call.

 

[ShonTron]

Fresco, you’ve been warned. You made your point, we’re all aware of your point, move on.

 

[toonderly]

So, anyone else thinking that Ana Bailão is getting major hits for being first on a phone poll that probably lists candidates alphabetically and don't randomize choices?

Obviously I can't know whether a survey is randomizing the order for different recipients, but I can say that the poll calls I have received did not present the candidates alphabetically and in different questions presented the candidates in different orders. And in the last two calls Ana Bailão's name was pronounced incorrectly and 3 different ways.

Unfortunately I don't remember which pollsters were conducting the polls. I don't think I have had one from Mainstreet.

 

[zang]

Good question. I'm not an expert in survey design. I know some polling firms randomize the ordering for each call.

It could also be that Mainstreet has something in their methodology that biases towards centrists over leftists.

It’s not like it hasn’t happened before. Twice.

What Alberta and B.C. can learn from Mainstreet Research’s poll-gone-wrong in Nanaimo | The Star

 

[adma]

I'm curious how well Gong will perform in Scarborough North and Scarborough Agincourt. I wonder if he can crack the Top 3 in these wards?

Speaking of things "Gong", this may be completely out of line, but I was wondering if anybody's speculated on Falun Gong connections? Because I get a real “Epoch Times” vibe from all of this shadowy Gong omnipresence…

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

awful debate so far.

 

[Admiral Beez]

Speaking of things "Gong", this may be completely out of line, but I was wondering if anybody's speculated on Falun Gong connections? Because I get a real “Epoch Times” vibe from all of this shadowy Gong omnipresence…

All this talk of gong has me thinking of Ted.

 

[Towered]

I feel increasingly ambivalent about this election. Nobody is really inspiring - if anything, I'd say most of the main candidates are fumbling, presenting stale, generic talking points and vague ideas, and the one who actually has some more substance (Matlow) who I'd like to vote for, has no shot at winning. Meh.

Where's Toronto's Nenshi?

 

[enter username]

Relative advance voter turnout by ward. Somewhat limited as population used is based off 20 or older in 2021 census

 

[Fresco]

I feel increasingly ambivalent about this election. Nobody is really inspiring

I'll put it in stronger words, they all suck

 

[toonderly]

I feel increasingly ambivalent about this election. Nobody is really inspiring - if anything, I'd say most of the main candidates are fumbling, presenting stale, generic talking points and vague ideas, and the one who actually has some more substance (Matlow) who I'd like to vote for, has no shot at winning. Meh.

Where's Toronto's Nenshi?

I'm still mad that Tory ran in 2022, so it is exciting enough to see a bunch of candidates who are not Tory and also to have hope of a more progressive Mayor to finish out the term. And assuming Chow is elected, Josh Matlow will still be on council and can ideally have some influence where he has substantive ideas.

 

[Pacer]

Relative advance voter turnout by ward. Somewhat limited as population used is based off 20 or older in 2021 census
View attachment 485720

Very informative, thank you. Do you know where this information published?

 

[ShonTron]

Here’s how desperate BadBad’s campaign is:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1669356713915613184

 

[TonyV]

Here’s how desperate BadBad’s campaign is:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1669356713915613184

And such a use of emojis. That makes it worse. I gess he kant spel.

 

[enter username]

Very informative, thank you. Do you know where this information published?

https://www.toronto.ca/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/98ae-1.1-Advance-Vote-Turnout-Ward-by-Ward.pdf