Jonny5
Senior Member
Which polling firm is that one from?
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2023 Toronto Mayoral by-election
- Thread starter SJD_Toronto
- Start date
Fresco
Active Member
Mainstreet Research
adma
Superstar
If that's the case: boy, Quito Maggi was trolling. (That is, this share for Olivia--or the rest, for that matter--isn't necessarily *that* much different from what would have been the case pre-announcement.)
SJD_Toronto
Active Member
Hmmm. No big change. I’ll be curious what the next few Mainstreet polls say. If this looks promising for anyone, it’s Ana Bailao.
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alklay
Senior Member
Yes, it appears to be tight up there at the top, making turnout and the ground game even more important.
But imagine our next mayor winning with less than 20% of the vote? Not much of a mandate.
I expect one of two of these candidates to break through, but even that means winning with possibly 25% or so. Quite amazing.
But imagine our next mayor winning with less than 20% of the vote? Not much of a mandate.
I expect one of two of these candidates to break through, but even that means winning with possibly 25% or so. Quite amazing.
RGB_11
Active Member
Whatever happened to this wacko guy? "Vote for me and TTC will be free..." (what a joke!)
And what pays for it? "Well that's a conversation for another time..."
NO IT IS NOT!!! lol Either there is a way to make TTC free or there is not...this clown is just trying to get elected with no real way to pay for free TTC!
omny.fm
And what pays for it? "Well that's a conversation for another time..."
NO IT IS NOT!!! lol Either there is a way to make TTC free or there is not...this clown is just trying to get elected with no real way to pay for free TTC!
Toronto mayor candidate Blake Acton makes his pitch to Moore In The Morning with his campaign platform of making the TTC free. - NEWSTALK1010
Toronto mayor candidate Blake Acton makes his pitch to Moore In The Morning with his campaign platform of making the TTC free.
omny.fm
christiesplits
Senior Member
Latest Mainsteet poll.
1,082 respondents
Phone IVR
4/17-4/19
Decided voters:
Chow - 23%
Bailao - 19%
Matlow - 18%
Saunders - 14%
Hunter - 7%
Bradford - 7%
A snippet behind the paywall (all voters)
1,082 respondents
Phone IVR
4/17-4/19
Decided voters:
Chow - 23%
Bailao - 19%
Matlow - 18%
Saunders - 14%
Hunter - 7%
Bradford - 7%
A snippet behind the paywall (all voters)
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W. K. Lis
Superstar
Admiral Beez
Superstar
What's CommuChow?
Richard White
Senior Member
He is calling her a Communist.
Right wing voters always refer to the NDP as Communist or something of that nature. You need to understand that right wing voters despite the NDP with a passion.
Northern Light
Superstar
Any indication of the M.O.E.?
I see they weighted the results, quite a bit. That always raises my eyebrow.
Chow with a material lead in Etobicoke? Hmmmm
Cambry Ardship
Active Member
Nothing seems out of the ordinary for the weights. It's always harder to get younger respondents. More or less, if a subgroup is weighted up or down by more than a factor of two then that begins to raise some concerns.
A probability sample with roughly 1000 respondents has a margin of error at 50% is plus or minus 3% at the 95% level of confidence. At 15%, where most of the top candidates are sitting, the margin of error is closer to plus or minus 2% at the same level of confidence.
But, can a phone survey, whether conducted by live interviewer or by IVR really be considered a probability sample these days, where a probability survey means that every member of the target population has an equal chance of responding?
Edit: So, I would interpret the results more directionally. Currently, the top tier of candidates consists of Bailao/Matlow/Chow. Saunders is next, with Hunter/Bradford bringing up the tail. Chow seems to be more popular with older people, and is competing against Matlow for the Downtown. And the suburbs haven't coalesced behind a candidate.
A probability sample with roughly 1000 respondents has a margin of error at 50% is plus or minus 3% at the 95% level of confidence. At 15%, where most of the top candidates are sitting, the margin of error is closer to plus or minus 2% at the same level of confidence.
But, can a phone survey, whether conducted by live interviewer or by IVR really be considered a probability sample these days, where a probability survey means that every member of the target population has an equal chance of responding?
Edit: So, I would interpret the results more directionally. Currently, the top tier of candidates consists of Bailao/Matlow/Chow. Saunders is next, with Hunter/Bradford bringing up the tail. Chow seems to be more popular with older people, and is competing against Matlow for the Downtown. And the suburbs haven't coalesced behind a candidate.
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Admiral Beez
Superstar
IDK, in Alberta much of the right wing voted for the NDP, and given the nutbar they have for a premier now are likely to again. I've voted for both the Ford Cons (forgive my sins) and the Horvath Dippers.
Richard White
Senior Member
I voted for Ford last election but only because I didn't like Horvath and wanted her gone.
Normally I vote NDP but if Andrea had got a high level of support she would have stayed on.
facepalming_brooklynite
Active Member
or it could be a racist dogwhistle to associate her with the government of China