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2023 Toronto Mayoral by-election

Who gets your vote for Mayor of Toronto?

  • Ana Bailao

    Votes: 18 16.4%

  • Brad Bradford

    Votes: 3 2.7%

  • Olivia Chow

    Votes: 58 52.7%

  • Mitzie Hunter

    Votes: 2 1.8%

  • Josh Matlow

    Votes: 20 18.2%

  • Mark Saunders

    Votes: 4 3.6%

  • Other

    Votes: 5 4.5%
  • Total voters
    110
  • Poll closed .
Brad Bradford is really going all-in on crime. It's his entire Twitter feed. Toronto's Rudy Giuliani?
 
picard102 said:
Unlike the Island Airport, the next Mayor will have no power to do anything about the Provinces plans.
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But that kind of apparent reality does *not* prevent it from being an election issue that could well determine the final result.

I mean, you can say the same about Mike Harris's plan for Megacity in 1997--yet Metro held a referendum on amalgamation that year, and over 3/4 of voters rejected it. Even if it didn't make a difference in pushing back on the inevitable, it "sent a message".

And unlike the impotence of a referendum, a municipal mayoral byelection chooses an actual leader. Even if OP/OSC is a "done deal", it may well determine who gets elected Mayor--and not in the sense of someone who supports the Province's plans wholesale. (Though sure, I guess there's the possibility of it all being caught btw/a rock and a hard place if electing someone who opposes Doug's plans causes him to act out of spite. And maybe in an extreme case, he might try to find some way of enacting a Thatcherite "nuclear option", depose the mayor and appoint a caretaker like Kinga or something.)

And also: when it comes to "no power to do anything": thanks to various "external concerns raised", even the plans for Ontario Place have, well, "evolved" in their acknowledgment of existing conditions relative to when the Ford first entertained plans to redevelop the site.
 
StevieD said:
I'm getting a feeling this election might just come down to Olivia Chow vs Ana Bailao vs Mark Saunders. If Josh Matlow drops out, he would back Chow. If Brad Bradford walks away, I see him endorsing Bailao. Mitzie Hunter, who is kind of running in empty, should walk away yet I don't see her endorsing anyone.
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Mitzie would back Bilao normally (liberal members), but with the way Bilao undercut her at the liberal convention recently, I'm not so sure.
Mr.Tang said:
Serious question - how would John Tory do if he ran again?
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Even in this crowded field, he'd do well. If Bilao and Bradford weren't there, he'd walk it.
 
StevieD said:
I'm getting a feeling this election might just come down to Olivia Chow vs Ana Bailao vs Mark Saunders. If Josh Matlow drops out, he would back Chow. If Brad Bradford walks away, I see him endorsing Bailao. Mitzie Hunter, who is kind of running in empty, should walk away yet I don't see her endorsing anyone.
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There have been cases of candidates dropping out really early, like Giambrone in 2010 or Stintz in 2014, but I think it's unlikely we'd see a last-minute drop-out and endorsement of a competitor. Has this ever happened in an Toronto mayoral election?

christiesplits said:
Brad Bradford is really going all-in on crime. It's his entire Twitter feed. Toronto's Rudy Giuliani?
Click to expand...

I've noticed that, too. I reckon his team has done some polling and focus groups that say this is the number #1 issue for a lot of voters. To win in June, a candidate might only need like 25-30% to win. Bradford (I suspect) is likely targeting older, more suburban voters. As I noted previously, I don't think that gels well with his personality and brand, but his Avengers team of strategists think it will.
 
mjl08 said:
There have been cases of candidates dropping out really early, like Giambrone in 2010 or Stintz in 2014, but I think it's unlikely we'd see a last-minute drop-out and endorsement of a competitor. Has this ever happened in an Toronto mayoral election?
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Maybe not *very* last minute; but when it comes to still having the name on the ballot, Rocco Rossi & Sarah Thomson in '10 come to mind--and at least in the latter case, it was on behalf of Smitherman.

Also, Susan Fish in '91.
 
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I'm guessing Mainstreet will have Olivia Chow in first, Ana Bailao in second and Josh Matlow in third. If it shows Chow in first, I have doubts she'll be able to maintain the lead unless her campaign takes off in a massive way.
 
mjl08 said:
I believe Hunter has already resigned her MPP seat.

As to why Hunter is running? I suspect she knows she's an underdog, but sees a mayoral campaign as a decent springboard out of politics. If she stayed an MPP, she would probably sit in the opposition benches for another 7 years (barring a huge OLP resurgence in 2026). A mayoral campaign is a great way to make connections, bolster your resume and build your profile. Hunter has private sector experience and will probably make more money outside of the Ontario Legislature than inside it.
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I suspect she's running for leader of the Liberal Party, not Mayor. It just looks like she's running for mayor as that's a good way to increase her visibility across Ontario.

OLP leadership election is scheduled for December.
 
rbt said:
I suspect she's running for leader of the Liberal Party, not Mayor. It just looks like she's running for mayor as that's a good way to increase her visibility across Ontario.

OLP leadership election is scheduled for December.
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I'm starting to think she is looking for an exit out of politics. That, or I could see her running for a council seat in 2026.
 
StevieD said:
I'm starting to think she is looking for an exit out of politics. That, or I could see her running for a council seat in 2026.
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There's definitely possibilities. Next CEO of the Toronto Board of Trade?
I see Jan De Silva is now over eight years as CEO and that's the normal term. Her predecessor was there for just under eight.
It's a pretty prestigious and well paying position, and Mitzi has the Rotman MBA to back it up.
 
Jonny5 said:
There's definitely possibilities. Next CEO of the Toronto Board of Trade?
I see Jan De Silva is now over eight years as CEO and that's the normal term. Her predecessor was there for just under eight.
It's a pretty prestigious and well paying position, and Mitzi has the Rotman MBA to back it up.
Click to expand...
I can see her as the next CEO of the Toronto Board of Trade. I suspect that Mitzie knew that she couldn't win the Ontario Liberal Leadership so she may as well take a shot at the Toronto mayoral by-election. I also don't think she wants to just resign as a sitting MPP in a party that is barely hanging onto political relevance. And if she doesn't win the mayor's chair, she can say she gave it her all and she is now going to take on a new position outside of politics that just happens to pay really well.

Then if she wants to return to politics at some point down the road, she can look at a Toronto ward, returning to the Ontario Liberals or going for a federal seat.
 
rbt said:
I suspect she's running for leader of the Liberal Party, not Mayor. It just looks like she's running for mayor as that's a good way to increase her visibility across Ontario.

OLP leadership election is scheduled for December.
Click to expand...
Not quite sure this is a good tactic.
What is she going to say? "I came third (or probably worse) in the city in which I live. I am sure that I can capture the hearts and minds of the whole province now."
 
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