Northern Light
Superstar
I think Peñalosa could finish first if he just gets the same 17.8% he got last time
Honestly, we're looking at a raft of candidates who should all be able to grab 10% sitting on their hands.
Bradford, Bailao, Saunders, Hunter, Matlow......and others who could credibly get 10% or more as well, Penalosa and Brown for starters.
It becomes entirely plausible that a candidate with 15% + of the vote might take it.
Its a bit more likely the leader will break 20.........but still.
If we get 50% turnout, you could see a 'strong mayor' with 10% of the eligible vote.