2023 Toronto Mayoral by-election

[animatronic]

Sort of worried about uploading the Gardiner to the province as that could mean it getting built in a way that is shittier/more quick-and-dirty than the current plan, a la Relief Line/Ontario Line.

Just call the Gardiner renovations SmartDrive and ignore the problem for 10 years.

 

[JacindaArdern]

Well, John Tory has retired himself but I can see Brad/Ford doing it.

 

[toaster29]

Actually, I think the way to get the province to upload the highway is to vote to tear it down. My guess is that causes Doug to come to the rescue. Or, we end up with no Gardiner, win win. Asking nicely is going to get us the same response. I'm sure Ana knows this, and will just shrug her shoulders, say, "I tried", but keep the renovation going until it's rebuilt and there is truly no going back.

I agree, I think it's quite a smart move for Toronto to say "Ok Province, either take it or we are tearing it down". Ford would never allow these highways to be torn down under his watch. And as much as this forum tries to paint Bailao as a right-leaning candidate, she is no friend of the Fords - take a look at some of the things Rob and Doug have said about her in the past (in addition to Sun Media claiming her to be one of the downtown Toronto elite), she was in that political rival show with Stephen Holyday in that TVO series Political Blind (where people from opposite sides of the political spectrum came together - she was representing the left part of the spectrum). This is the only place I hear people calling her 'centre-right'. Also, having Brad Bradford in the race makes her seem like the more moderate choice (this helped Ford when the New Blue party to his right made Ford look like a moderate). And if her name alone can convince people of Davenport to vote for her (the highest concentration of voters who would be more left learning), I think she'll do well.

 

[Amare]

At this point, any candidate who pledges to fire Rick Leary (with the exception of Mammo and Holyday) will likely have my vote. Not that we have a candidate bold enough to say that they'll do that, but if we did then that candidate would likely have a pretty good boost in the polls.

Regarding the Gardiner, Doug Ford is a crook and I highly doubt that if the city made such an ultimatum (ie: take it or we'll tear it down) will work. We're talking about a petty premier who uses the Notwithstanding Clause almost recklessly, changes legislation to make it extremely difficult to sue the province for various things, crafts legislation with the sole benefit of private sector interests, etc.

 

[afransen]

Sort of worried about uploading the Gardiner to the province as that could mean it getting built in a way that is shittier/more quick-and-dirty than the current plan, a la Relief Line/Ontario Line.

Given that the base of PCO support is the suburbs, I think you should be worried about it being gold-plated. I guess there could be some fear that a reconstruction would be more urban hostile, but I think they would not try to do this for the blowback they would get.

 

[afransen]

At this point, any candidate who pledges to fire Rick Leary (with the exception of Mammo and Holyday) will likely have my vote. Not that we have a candidate bold enough to say that they'll do that, but if we did then that candidate would likely have a pretty good boost in the polls.

Regarding the Gardiner, Doug Ford is a crook and I highly doubt that if the city made such an ultimatum (ie: take it or we'll tear it down) will work. We're talking about a petty premier who uses the Notwithstanding Clause almost recklessly, changes legislation to make it extremely difficult to sue the province for various things, crafts legislation with the sole benefit of private sector interests, etc.

I think Doug could and would legislate to prohibit a dismantling of the Gardiner without uploading it. This why I suggested to just stop paying for maintenance and close it for safety reasons (until it can later be dismantled). After all, tearing down the Gardiner would in itself be very expensive. I'm not sure the province could really force the city to maintain the Gardiner short of just completely taking over the city.

 

[rbt]

I think Doug could and would legislate to prohibit a dismantling of the Gardiner without uploading it. This why I suggested to just stop paying for maintenance and close it for safety reasons (until it can later be dismantled). After all, tearing down the Gardiner would in itself be very expensive. I'm not sure the province could really force the city to maintain the Gardiner short of just completely taking over the city.

Yep. A single line entry to the Toronto Act would be sufficient to make the provinces position clear and enforceable:

Toronto shall maintain Gardiner expressway and Don Valley parkway to MTO standards using property tax revenue.​

 

[afransen]

Yep. A single line entry to the Toronto Act would be sufficient to make the provinces position clear and enforceable:

Toronto shall maintain Gardiner expressway and Don Valley parkway to MTO standards using property tax revenue.​

This could be a cat and mouse game. Schedule long maintenance closures that are effectively closing the Gardiner/DVP. Close ramps. Mess with signal timings.

 

[JacindaArdern]

Given that the base of PCO support is the suburbs, I think you should be worried about it being gold-plated. I guess there could be some fear that a reconstruction would be more urban hostile, but I think they would not try to do this for the blowback they would get.

Exactly that.

And they did get blowback for the many wonky aspects of Ontario Line design+alignment, they just didn't care.

 

[afransen]

Exactly that.

And they did get blowback for the many wonky aspects of Ontario Line design+alignment, they just didn't care.

I think much of the OL opposition was hyperlocal concern trolling (cutting down some trees next to a park here, demolishing a retail plaza there). I doubt even most people in the affected communities even heard about much less care about the changes. I think they took the most heat over the Osgoode trees, and what you're talking about is 100x worse than cutting some historically significant trees.

Doing something truly awful downtown will get a lot of attention beyond local activists.

 

[rbt]

This could be a cat and mouse game. Schedule long maintenance closures that are effectively closing the Gardiner/DVP. Close ramps. Mess with signal timings.

That game probably doesn't end well because abnormally long closures would not be to MTO standard. If Doug is still around the province would simply put MTO in charge of managing the highways and charge Toronto the maintenance bill directly. There's precedent for this with GO contributions in the past.

If criticized, they might request maintenance contributions for all highways the province maintains within GTA borders arguing they're largely used by local commuters. That would probably be popular outside the GTA.

 

[afransen]

That would probably be popular outside the GTA.

That doesn't help much when his government is built on the GTA's support. Pissing off his base in suburban Toronto is a non-starter.

 

[christiesplits]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1637493160766054404

This is an interesting endorsement. Chris Moise was NDP aligned as a TDSB trustee but was able to court a number of Liberal organizers and politicians to create an atypical NDP-Liberal coalition of support for his successful council campaign. KWT had a similar arrangement in her time on council.

The fact that Bailao received Moise’s endorsement suggests to me that Bailao sees an opening on the centre-left and might be trying to recruit progressives.

 

[SJD_Toronto]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1637493160766054404

This is an interesting endorsement. Chris Moise was NDP aligned as a TDSB trustee but was able to court a number of Liberal organizers and politicians to create an atypical NDP-Liberal coalition of support for his successful council campaign. KWT had a similar arrangement in her time on council.

The fact that Bailao received Moise’s endorsement suggests to me that Bailao sees an opening on the centre-left and might be trying to recruit progressives.

I think this is very smart. It seems that Ana is going to start showing herself as a candidate who can be appealing to everyone from most political stripes. This makes me think of a comparison to Jeff Lehman in Barrie, my home city. While Barrie and Toronto are completely different cities, in 2010, Lehman, a known card carrying Liberal, ran for mayor in a right leaning city. He ran as a person who can be appealing to everyone regardless of different political beliefs. He got elected with around 35% of the vote, played his cards correctly during his first term and then easily won re-election with 90%+ of the vote in 2014. Point being is he and his team knew how to appeal to everyone. I think Ana Bailao is going to do the same. She and her campaign team know Josh Matlow, Brad Bradford and Mark Saunders will be her biggest competition, so she wants to try to come across as the best middle road choice for every resident.

If she can out fundraise all other candidates, plus with an excellent ground game, great messaging and winning strategy, it would not shock me if she locks this race down.

 

[ShonTron]

I’m disappointed though, I’m not thrilled about Bailao, and I’m really surprised that someone who had Progress Toronto’s support would turn for such a mediocre pro-Tory centrist so quickly.

Bailao also has LIUNA’s support, which is no surprise, but that’s also a dirty union local.