2023 Toronto Mayoral by-election

[christiesplits]

Two more weeks until the election.

There is a lot of speculation that some of the lower polling candidates will drop out and endorse the bigger contenders. From what I've heard, Bradford and Matlow are still hosting fundraisers this week, which would seem to quash any chance of them dropping out until next week. As I noted in my last post about Hunter, candidates like Bradford and Matlow might be eyeing the long game, such as another political run in the future (MP perhaps?), so there's still opportunity in recruiting donors and allies.

My money (not based on any insider info) is on Tory endorsing a candidate, likely Bailao, next week. I'm less certain about Ford, as Saunders, his preferred candidate, appears neck-and-neck with Furey, who also has the support of much of Ford Nation.

The lack of a consensus "Anti-Chow" candidate makes me somewhat more confident in Chow winning on the 26th, barring flawed polling models.

 

[Northern Light]

Two more weeks until the election.

There is a lot of speculation that some of the lower polling candidates will drop out and endorse the bigger contenders. From what I've heard, Bradford and Matlow are still hosting fundraisers this week, which would seem to quash any chance of them dropping out until next week. As I noted in my last post about Hunter, candidates like Bradford and Matlow might be eyeing the long game, such as another political run in the future (MP perhaps?), so there's still opportunity in recruiting donors and allies.

My money (not based on any insider info) is on Tory endorsing a candidate, likely Bailao, next week. I'm less certain about Ford, as Saunders, his preferred candidate, appears neck-and-neck with Furey, who also has the support of much of Ford Nation.

The lack of a consensus "Anti-Chow" candidate makes me somewhat more confident in Chow winning on the 26th, barring flawed polling models.

Irrespective of the outcome, I am reminded that i would really prefer a ranked ballot system where the ultimate winner had to have 50%+ 1 of the vote.

 

[rbt]

I expect Ford will rescind/alter those strong mayor powers in order to dilute Chow. Those powers were intended for Tory to be able to do Ford's bidding, not so that Chow can now thwart him.

Strong Mayor powers to veto and adjust the agenda only apply items that work in favour of provincial priorities; and even then strong mayor powers cannot be used when it impacts the budget.

So, if those powers are used then either Ford is happy, or Ford is no longer premier and provincial priorities have changed.

This is the legal definition of provincial priorities:

​

1. The following are provincial priorities prescribed for the purposes of sections 284.10, 284.11 and 284.11.1 of the Act:​

1. Building 1.5 million new residential units by December 31, 2031.​

​

2. Constructing and maintaining infrastructure to support housing, including,​

i. transit,​

ii. roads,​

iii. utilities, and​

iv. servicing.​

​

2. Omitted (provides for coming into force of provisions of this Regulation).​

Law Document English View

Welcome to the new e-Laws. It’s now easier than ever to find Ontario laws. We welcome your feedback.

www.ontario.ca

 

[afransen]

Irrespective of the outcome, I am reminded that i would really prefer a ranked ballot system where the ultimate winner had to have 50%+ 1 of the vote.

It's too much to hope for, but maybe having a lefty getting elected on right-wing vote splitting (Saunders/Furey) might make Doug reconsider his opposition to ranked choice voting.

 

[afransen]

Strong Mayor powers to veto and adjust the agenda only apply items that work in favour of provincial priorities; and even then strong mayor powers cannot be used when it impacts the budget.

So, if those powers are used then either Ford is happy, or Ford is no longer premier and provincial priorities have changed.

This is the legal definition of provincial priorities:

​

1. The following are provincial priorities prescribed for the purposes of sections 284.10, 284.11 and 284.11.1 of the Act:​

1. Building 1.5 million new residential units by December 31, 2031.​

​

2. Constructing and maintaining infrastructure to support housing, including,​

i. transit,​

ii. roads,​

iii. utilities, and​

iv. servicing.​

​

2. Omitted (provides for coming into force of provisions of this Regulation).​

Law Document English View

Welcome to the new e-Laws. It’s now easier than ever to find Ontario laws. We welcome your feedback.

www.ontario.ca

Bringing the link forward:

Provincial priorities​

1. The following are provincial priorities prescribed for the purposes of sections 284.10, 284.11 and 284.11.1 of the Act:

1. Building 1.5 million new residential units by December 31, 2031.

2. Constructing and maintaining infrastructure to support housing, including,

i. transit,

ii. roads,

iii. utilities, and

iv. servicing.

Could we get creative with interpreting what supports #2? Raising taxes to support transit service increases and more bike infrastructure?

 

[adma]

Took my first real Scarborough venture (the Cliffside bus end to end). While I admittedly didn't go into her riding/ward, I was taken aback by the lack of Mitzie signage other than at major intersections (and even then drowned out by others, Gong/Tull/Sky included)--so even in her own turf, something's awry. It also seems that Bailao may or may not be getting lawn sign momentum (not relative to Chow, but relative to the others), so perhaps Quito Maggi's push polling's bearing *some* fruit...

Also, I'm not (yet?) seeing Furey lawn signs.

 

[picard102]

Could we get creative with interpreting what supports #2? Raising taxes to support transit service increases and more bike infrastructure?

Those are things we can already do. Nobody wants to loose the next election however.

 

[afransen]

Those are things we can already do. Nobody wants to loose the next election however.

But can a strong mayor do it against a <2/3 opposed council?

 

[TonyV]

I expect Ford will rescind/alter those strong mayor powers in order to dilute Chow. Those powers were intended for Tory to be able to do Ford's bidding, not so that Chow can now thwart him.

If his word is worth anything, then he will remember what he said. He said that the powers apply no matter the winner.

 

[picard102]

But can a strong mayor do it against a <2/3 opposed council?

Not if they want to win another election.

 

[facepalming_brooklynite]

If his word is worth anything, then he will remember what he said.

That's a good one!
https://ontariopc.ca/ontario-pc-leader-doug-ford-promises-not-to-touch-the-greenbelt/

 

[taal]

Slightly off topic question; But with so much focus on affordable housing; Does the province mandate the other communities build affordable housing, let's take Markham as an example ? Or is it completely on the city (because "all the services" are there, which strikes me as a self fulfilling prophecy type of statement).

 

[afransen]

Slightly off topic question; But with so much focus on affordable housing; Does the province mandate the other communities build affordable housing, let's take Markham as an example ? Or is it completely on the city (because "all the services" are there, which strikes me as a self fulfilling prophecy type of statement).

I don't think the province has any particular mandate about affordable housing. And I have my doubts that what the city does on affordable housing specifically helps on a macro scale (affordable housing taking the form of a tax that restricts supply of market housing). The province only mandates overall growth plans for all municipalities in the province.

 

[christiesplits]

New Liaison poll.

Chow: 34%
Saunders: 15%
Matlow: 12%
Bailão: 10%
Furey: 9%
Hunter: 9%
Bradford: 6%

https://twitter.com/x/status/1668566470459047937

 

[zang]

New Liaison poll.

Chow: 34%
Saunders: 15%
Matlow: 12%
Bailão: 10%
Furey: 9%
Hunter: 9%
Bradford: 6%

"And those polled who say the city needs to raise property taxes to address its financial crisis outnumber those who say cut spending."

Though I'm sure the idea may rankle some; as one of the only candidates talking about raising tax income for the city, this may mean Chow is picking up old-school fiscal conservatives (note: not modern social conservatives who just call themselves fiscal conservatives).