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2022/24 Russian-Ukrainian War

Richard White said:
It is more likely that Russia plans to use nukes to prevent the retaking of Crimea and other occupied territories.
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I was also thinking about this. Would Russia go to the extent of creating a no-man's zone that has been radioactively contaminated; creating a permanent border.
 
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yrt+viva=1system said:
I was also thinking about this. Would Russia go to the extent of creating a no-man's zone that has been radioactively contaminated; creating a permanent border.
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It wouldn't be that much of an issue and is likely something the Ukrainians have experience with.

Keep in mind Pripyat is in Ukraine.
 
Richard White said:
It is more likely that Russia plans to use nukes to prevent the retaking of Crimea and other occupied territories.
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At this point, Russia using a dirty bomb is far more likely than nukes. They're clearly setting the conditions for such use, along with the destruction of the Nova Kakhova dam, to massively slow or stall the Ukrainian advances. That's not to say the nuclear threat doesnt still exist, but at present there's no indication of immediate nuclear usage. Russia does not bring up the issue of a dirty bomb in conversations with 3 separate western defence minsters unless the risks of them using such a weapon are considerably high. Its just the Russian M.O. at this point.
 
Russia is aggressively pushing the dirty bomb narrative. Gerasimov just held calls Mike Milley as well as the British military chief, reiterating the exact same claims. They're putting a full court press on this narrative unlike pervious narratives such as claims Ukraine was planning on using American developed bioweapons.

I find that somewhat concerning.
 
Bjays92 said:
Russia is aggressively pushing the dirty bomb narrative. Gerasimov just held calls Mike Milley as well as the British military chief, reiterating the exact same claims. They're putting a full court press on this narrative unlike pervious narratives such as claims Ukraine was planning on using American developed bioweapons.

I find that somewhat concerning.
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Here is the thing..

Even if Russia pretends that Ukraine let off a dirty bomb the rest of the world would know the truth fairly quickly. Any use of radiological weapons by Russia or its allies be it a dirty bomb or an ICBM would likely be an immediate red line for NATO.

Russia would likely utilize a dirty bomb to try and pin it on Ukraine. They will then try to say that Russia is under attack by Nuclear Weapons and launch tactical nukes in response therein completing the fabrication.

I can see NATO troops engaging Russia and its allies if any abnormal offensive radiation is detected on Ukrainian soil.
 
Richard White said:
Here is the thing..

Even if Russia pretends that Ukraine let off a dirty bomb the rest of the world would know the truth fairly quickly. Any use of radiological weapons by Russia or its allies be it a dirty bomb or an ICBM would likely be an immediate red line for NATO.

Russia would likely utilize a dirty bomb to try and pin it on Ukraine. They will then try to say that Russia is under attack by Nuclear Weapons and launch tactical nukes in response therein completing the fabrication.

I can see NATO troops engaging Russia and its allies if any abnormal offensive radiation is detected on Ukrainian soil.
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Russia doesn't care if the rest of the world knows its them and the radioactive fallout from such a weapon is not really substantial enough to cross NATO red lines I don't think.

Ukraine might get better air defenses or longer missiles but I doubt they'd get direct intervention.
 
Bjays92 said:
Russia doesn't care if the rest of the world knows its them and the radioactive fallout from such a weapon is not really substantial enough to cross NATO red lines I don't think.

Ukraine might get better air defenses or longer missiles but I doubt they'd get direct intervention.
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No BUT Radiological weapons have a lasting effect on the surrounding area. Look at what happened with Chernobyl when the radiation was released.

Dirty Bomb or ICBM, the end result is the same, it would be a hostile nation using a WMD on a foreign nation in an offensive manner. The reaction from the global community would be very much different from Russia firing off a SAM or Cruise Missile.
 
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