2022/24 Russian-Ukrainian War

[kEiThZ]

I don't see Ukraine taking any deal that involves Russian troops staying in the Donbas or Crimea.

I don't think Ukraine would or should either. But there's a lot of governments under pressure in Europe. Some might be willing to break ranks and pressure Ukraine. We still don't know how bad winter will be. And it's a La Niña year too.

If Ukraine wants Crimea they’ll need to land forces there before the Russians make any offers.

This is extremely difficult while they still have Russians in Southern Ukraine.

Start by cutting that bridge in the east (why hasn’t that been done yet?).

They don't have the range to do this from their current positions. If they take Mariupol or Melitopol or Berdyansk, they'll be able to reach the Kerch bridge.

Find some ro-ro ferries or other subterfuge to land a sizeable force that, now that the BSF has left the field, can be supplied oversea from Odessa.

Landing a force is one thing. Sustaining it, is another. Just look at the Russians in Kherson. The Ukrainians could easily find themselves in a similar position in Crimea if they aren't careful.

But also, the Russians can be made to abandon Crimea. The value of Crimea, to Russia, is the military infrastructure. Once all of southern Ukraine is retaken, Crimea will not be safe for the Russian military. There's no point having a military base if it's subject to ballistic and cruise missile strikes every week.

 

[Towered]

The real question is what happens when the Russians offer to withdraw to pre-Feb borders eventually. Lots of Western appeasers will want pressure on Ukraine to take that deal.

I say non starter to that. After what they’ve been put through this year, and really since 2014, not including Crimea is totally unacceptable. Keep hammering the Russians relentlessly until they are forced to vacate it.

 

[kEiThZ]

I say non starter to that. After what they’ve been put through this year, and really since 2014, not including Crimea is totally unacceptable. Keep hammering the Russians relentlessly until they are forced to vacate it.

I agree with you wholeheartedly. But, let's be honest, there's really not much cost to us holding these views. Total aid commitments to Ukraine are something like $25 per capita. The Ukraine war premium on energy has maybe cost the average driver $500 for year in higher gas prices in Canada. That's not huge compared to the energy bills Europeans are facing while their countries taking in hundreds of thousands refugees.

Would we have the same views if we were cafe owners facing €9000 electric bills before winter even hits? I don't know how it's going to work out. But I really hope Europe holds through the winter. And I'm genuinely worried that Putin is trying to craft a proposal that breaks Western unity and leaves Ukraine isolated, while also getting Russia back into the European energy market.

Maybe I'm just a worry wart. But I'm always suspicious. A lot of these folks never took the Russian threat seriously. Now the energy bills are threatening to deindustralize chunks of the economy as energy intensive operations shut down. I can see a lot of willingness to throw Ukraine under the proverbial bus to save themselves. The Germans will never sacrifice BMW so that Ukraine can get back Crimea if they are forced to choose.

 

[afransen]

I find that 'real country' terminology rather too much. I don't see why we can't keep policy debates to discussing factually what it is nations do or don't do, rather that adding embellished characterizations.'

Canada does still culturally have 'small country' thinking. Despite being top ten-ish in GDP.

 

[afransen]

The Germans will never sacrifice BMW so that Ukraine can get back Crimea if they are forced to choose.

They could just bail them out, no? Sort of like the supports to get the economy through COVID.

 

[kEiThZ]

They could just bail them out, no? Sort of like the supports to get the economy through COVID.

They are doing that to some extent. But there is a limit to how much can be done. Ultimately, it was never sustainable to build an industrialized economy on Russian energy. And they're paying the price for those decisions now.

Thinks like steel and glass making will eventually leave Europe. Hope it doesn't all end up in China.

 

[Admiral Beez]

Canada does still culturally have 'small country' thinking. Despite being top ten-ish in GDP.

I can‘t think of any other Western country of under 40 million people that is divided by more than a dozen regional provincial/territorial governments. If we were to add up all the MPs, MPPs, MLAs and the thousands of duplicated bureaucrats doing the same role at regional and national levels across the country, combined with regional public wants and demands, it’s a wonder we can get anything done.

 

[kEiThZ]

As predicted.....

https://twitter.com/x/status/1569246941074128900

https://twitter.com/x/status/1569247076403249154

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

As predicted.....

https://twitter.com/x/status/1569246941074128900

https://twitter.com/x/status/1569247076403249154

Those POWs would come in handy for any negotiations involving the repatriation of Ukrainians who were forcibly relocated to Russia - though the latter doesn't seem to put too much value in their soldiers at this point.

AoD

 

[DSC]

Finally a Downfall meme worthy of sharing....

The BBC has this photo on their website, I guess some of the tanks (almost) crossed the river!

 

[kEiThZ]

BBC has this photo on their website, I guess some of the tanks (almost) crossed the river!

Should get their air force in on the party too!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1569273008040333315

When you have so little stick time, you can't even follow your flight lead out on a climbing left turn without stalling the jet....

 

[Northern Light]

The BBC has this photo on their website, I guess some of the tanks (almost) crossed the river!

View attachment 426449

While not wanting to get ahead of ourselves; there certainly seems to be potential for a positive end to this conflict in the near term.

That said, the shot above is a reminder, the clean-up is going to be enormous, wreckage, damaged/destroyed buildings, bridges and other infra, abandoned equipment, unexploded ordinance, pollution from fuel, litter/dumping on a grand scale........

And that's before you get to 'rebuilding'.

The west needs to have some sort of Marshall Plan for Ukraine.

 

[kEiThZ]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1569334222242070536

 

[Richard White]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1569334222242070536

One of three things is about to happen.

1) Putin is about to snap like a twig and nuke most of Europe.

2) He is about to resign (whether or not it is by choice)

3) He is about to recall all his troops from Ukraine and admit defeat.

 

[Towered]

The BBC has this photo on their website, I guess some of the tanks (almost) crossed the river!

View attachment 426449

Hey, if they sink enough tanks in a row they'll eventually have a bridge to cross!