News   Nov 18, 2024
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News   Nov 18, 2024
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News   Nov 18, 2024
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2022/24 Russian-Ukrainian War

One of three things is about to happen.

1) Putin is about to snap like a twig and nuke most of Europe.

2) He is about to resign (whether or not it is by choice)

3) He is about to recall all his troops from Ukraine and admit defeat.
You missed another ideal option - that he puts a bullet in his brain surrounded by the opulence of his ill-gotten gains.
 
This report says "Putin retreated to his Sochi mansion ". Not sure this is really correct as he is off to a summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) (22nd Meeting of the Council of Heads of State of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization) in the Uzbek city of Samarkand. Perhaps he popped into his Sochi palace to pack his overnight bag? It is being held on 15-16 September 2022.
 
While not wanting to get ahead of ourselves; there certainly seems to be potential for a positive end to this conflict in the near term.

That said, the shot above is a reminder, the clean-up is going to be enormous, wreckage, damaged/destroyed buildings, bridges and other infra, abandoned equipment, unexploded ordinance, pollution from fuel, litter/dumping on a grand scale........

And that's before you get to 'rebuilding'.

The west needs to have some sort of Marshall Plan for Ukraine.

I agree. This will be like Bosnia where the area was rife with Landmines and damage after the war.

I can see the EU bringing Ukraine into the fold at breakneck speed after the war so they can start rebuilding part of the EU family. I
 
Reinforcing the discussion of Russian surrenders in/near Kherson:

1663005853187.png


He did add this caveat:

1663005874762.png


 
Care to translate?

Aside from the collapse in Kharkiv, the Russians may have gotten another huge force at risk of encirclement west of Severodonetsk. If the Ukrainians succeed at this, pre-Feb occupied Donbas is wide open.

This is potentially as big as Kharkiv last week. We're potentially looking at the liberation of areas occupied since 2014.
 
Aside from the collapse in Kharkiv, the Russians may have gotten another huge force at risk of encirclement west of Severodonetsk. If the Ukrainians succeed at this, pre-Feb occupied Donbas is wide open.

This is potentially as big as Kharkiv last week.

Losing the Donbas would be bad for Putin.

If I recall, one of his reasons for his "special military operation" was to liberate the Donbas and Crimea. After everything else both he and the Russian people have lost during this failed war, it would be the living embodiment of failure.

The Donbas would be the turning point. If he loses that, this war is going to go in favor of Ukraine.
 
If he loses that, this war is going to go in favor of Ukraine.

At this point, almost guaranteed. There was concerns that they could fall back to pre Feb lines (that have well built up fortifications) and hold. But if the Ukrainians are knocking on the door of Severodonetsk, the Russian tactical withdrawal clearly ain't going well.
 
I have no military experience so my take should be taken with a grain of salt. But it looks like Russia's entire invasion force is collapsing in spectacular fashion. Ukrainian forces are close to the main Russian force in the Donbas. Since the way east looks wide open, they might be able to flank the main Russian forces and attack them from behind. The Russians can't really pivot to meet them head on since they've been bogged down against Ukrainian troops to the west for months.
 
At this point, almost guaranteed. There was concerns that they could fall back to pre Feb lines (that have well built up fortifications) and hold. But if the Ukrainians are knocking on the door of Severodonetsk, the Russian tactical withdrawal clearly ain't going well.

As someone else said, the Russian lines are falling to pieces. This is turning into Putins Afghanistan, his Vietnam if you will.

Much like Afghanistan contributed to the fall of the Soviet Union, I can see the war in Ukraine contributing to the fall of Russia as we know it.
 
This is turning into Putins Afghanistan, his Vietnam if you will.

Way, way worse.

Neither of the conflicts mentioned had losses like this. Both in materiel or personnel. And neither Afghanistan for the USSR or Vietnam for the USA, saw a wholesale destruction of credibility of those countries as military powers. The Ukrainians have truly shown the world that the emperor is naked.
 
Way, way worse.
Neither of the conflicts mentioned had losses like this. Both in materiel or personnel. And neither Afghanistan for the USSR or Vietnam for the USA, saw a wholesale destruction of credibility of those countries as military powers. The Ukrainians have truly shown the world that the emperor is naked.

You have to wonder just how good their nukes are - sure you don't need that many to work, but you do wonder what conditions their nuclear arsenal is in.

AoD
 

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