News   Jul 15, 2024
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2022/24 Russian-Ukrainian War

There are reports that the Russian military might be purposefully sacrificing Wagner troops in Bakhmut in order to weaken Prighozin's influence. Factional infighting plaguing the Russian war effort? I love it.
 
I can see the US becoming isolated in the future if the GOP takes power and Ukraine is abandoned.

This is projection. The world's pre-eminent military and economic power is not about to lose influence and if it does, I'm guessing most of us in the West won't like the country that is likely to fill the vacuum: China.

The world as a whole supports Ukraine and I can see the US being looked upon negatively if they abandon them.

The world as a whole doesn't support Ukraine. The world is ambivalent at best. See the Global South and Russia's influence there. Even Ukraine's own foreign minister has made this point and argued that both Ukraine and the West have to do better at explaining to the Global South why helping Ukraine is in their interest. The reality is that if Ukraine falls, most of the world will not care. But the West, and Europe in particular, will definitely feel the impact.

Also, good feelings for Ukraine will not stop Russian bullets and bombs. So our "support" for Ukraine means very little if we can't help them actually defeat Russia.
 
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All the more reason for the EU to step up in a big way to offset such a potential scenario. That lesson should have already been learned by the awful Trump years.

The EU and Canada share a common belief that security matters should be left to the warmongering Americans, while they enjoy all the benefits of the American security umbrella that they (and us) chafe under. There's a reason we're out of AUKUS after all.....

Really, the only countries that are actually serious here (and their proportional contributions show it) are the Scandinavians, the Baltics and Poland. But if Ukraine starts faltering and an American President who is weak on NATO looks likely, they'll have to recalculate about their own defence.

Countries, like Canada, France, Spain, Italy, etc which aren't directly threatened by Russia should be doing a lot more to help Ukraine right now. To put this in context, just to approach the same percentage of GDP committed as aid to Ukraine as the US, Canada would have to commit another $6-8B more. I honestly wish we would send them all our tanks and armoured support vehicles, 155mm artillery, all retiring APCs and reconnaissance vehicles, and immediately launch a $5B program to replace these over the next 3-5 years. That kit is way more useful in Ukrainian hands right now and we will have to replace it all in 5-10 years anyway.
 
The EU and Canada share a common belief that security matters should be left to the warmongering Americans,

"The EU and Canada share a common belief that security matters should be left to the warmongering Americans,"

The EU has spent over $100 BILLION every single year on defence since 1987. It is now over $200 BILLION per year. That is not in any way shape form or measure "leaving it to the Americans".

SOURCE

Canada would have to commit another $6-8B more. I honestly wish we would send them all our tanks and armoured support vehicles, 155mm artillery, all retiring APCs and reconnaissance vehicles, and immediately launch a $5B program to replace these over the next 3-5 years. That kit is way more useful in Ukrainian hands right now and we will have to replace it all in 5-10 years anyway.

Who would use them? How would they use them? Tanks need people to run them. The Ukraine doesn't have men left to run them, unless they put them in with zero training and zero experience. This is a simple truth restricting military spending in Canada too.
 
The EU has spent over $100 BILLION every single year on defence since 1987. It is now over $200 BILLION per year. That is not in any way shape form or measure "leaving it to the Americans".

I know $100B can seem like a big number, but as a percentage of GDP it's miniscule. Even $200B is about 1.2% of EU nominal GDP. Given that the EU has an economy that is about 70% of the US economy, they should actually be closer to $300B annually at least. And if they had been at that level for the last 20 years, they'd have been able to provide Ukraine with a lot more. Heck, Putin might even have had second thoughts about invading.

The Ukraine doesn't have men left to run them....
LOL. What?

Where are you getting this from?
 
Next time make sure there is a proximity fuse to the drone.

AoD
They don't arm the drones over the Black Sea. Maybe they should start.

But also, the Americans are saying the Russian pilot damaged his own aircraft. Imagine damaging a fighter jet that cost tens of millions of dollars and risking your life, to take down a propeller drone that costs a few mil. Russian logic is ....
 
They don't arm the drones over the Black Sea. Maybe they should start.

But also, the Americans are saying the Russian pilot damaged his own aircraft. Imagine damaging a fighter jet that cost tens of millions of dollars and risking your life, to take down a propeller drone that costs a few mil. Russian logic is ....

Well, two can play that game - it's not really arming, but ensure complete rapid disassembly of nearby aeronautical hazards...

AoD
 
I doubt the Russians are making Kamikaze runs..

They are not stupid enough to shoot down an American military aircraft over international waters.
 
They don't arm the drones over the Black Sea. Maybe they should start.

But also, the Americans are saying the Russian pilot damaged his own aircraft. Imagine damaging a fighter jet that cost tens of millions of dollars and risking your life, to take down a propeller drone that costs a few mil. Russian logic is ....
Apparently the cost of the drone is 32m before surveillance equipment. So a touch more than a few million.
 
A fighter jet is over 10 times the price of an air force drone.
In this case no, an SU-27 costs roughly the same.

Something like an F-35 costs a lot more, but still nowhere 10 times as much. That would mean 300 million per airframe (which could be the lifetime cost idk, but definitely is not the unit cost)

These Reaper drones aren't like the tiny drones dropping grenades on the frontlines or even like the Shahed drones. These are sizable unmanned aircraft that can conduct significant reconnaissance and can also be armed with missiles.
 
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In the case no, an SU-27 costs roughly the same.

They cost the same because the drone is built in the US and the fighter jet is built in Russia. But the fighter jet is most assuredly worth a lot more to Russia than the drone is to the US. The USAF is about to start retiring Reapers. They'll be drawn down slowly over a decade to complete retirement by 2035. Not to mention the risk to the Russians of losing a pilot, which they don't exactly have many plenty of.


 

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