2019 Canadian Federal Election

[Admiral Beez]

One thing I notice in recent polls is that the NDP's polling best or near their best in Ontario--probably a bit of vestigial "Horwath honeymoon" effect, I suppose...

We have a very unpopular premier combined with a near invisible leader of the opposition. If Horvath can't smash Ford to bits now (as far as that's possible when facing a majority), then the voters will look to someone who can, in the Liberal camp.

 

[steveintoronto]

We have a very unpopular premier combined with a near invisible leader of the opposition. If Horvath can't smash Ford to bits now (as far as that's possible when facing a majority), then the voters will look to someone who can, in the Liberal camp.

That was expressed almost exactly that way by...Geez, who was it now, in today's press...I forgot where I put my memory...

Here you go! Still up on my taskbar:
After a decade of defeats, NDP’s Andrea Horwath still ‘just good enough’
https://www.thestar.com/politics/po...ps-andrea-horwath-still-just-good-enough.html

It contains a statement I was referencing earlier on Schreiner, and this has appeared as much as Elizabeth May's mention of late, Schreiner is on the ascent:

She has long enjoyed high favourability ratings compared to, say, Ford, Wynne and Hudak — largely because she had fewer negatives (or more precisely, because she was the least well known). Now, however, Ontario has a new Mr. Congeniality in Green Party Leader Mike Schreiner, whose folksy manner and passionate environmentalism are eclipsing Horwath’s persona.

Cohn nails it. It's painful to have to listen to Horwath natter on, she drones in the same speaking manner, it reminds me of my worst years at school, where looking out the window into an empty alleyway was vastly more dynamic.

But when Schreiner speaks, I'm compelled to listen. Schreiner's ability is almost lost on the pathetic Ford fistula that just oozes pus. Schreiner is needed in Parliament, along with the other Greens and in alliance with the Independents.

One wonders about the likes of Tom Mulcair running as an Independent too in his old riding. The day the Dippers dumped him is the day they died.

It's time for the Centrist Coalition! In a minority government, highly likely from what the polls indicate, it could be the tail that wags the wimps.

 

[Northern Light]

That was expressed almost exactly that way by...Geez, who was it now, in today's press...I forgot where I put my memory...

Here you go! Still up on my taskbar:
After a decade of defeats, NDP’s Andrea Horwath still ‘just good enough’
https://www.thestar.com/politics/po...ps-andrea-horwath-still-just-good-enough.html

It contains a statement I was referencing earlier on Schreiner, and this has appeared as much as Elizabeth May's mention of late, Schreiner is on the ascent:

Cohn nails it. It's painful to have to listen to Horwath natter on, she drones in the same speaking manner, it reminds me of my worst years at school, where looking out the window into an empty alleyway was vastly more dynamic.

But when Schreiner speaks, I'm compelled to listen. Schreiner's ability is almost lost on the pathetic Ford fistula that just oozes pus. Schreiner is needed in Parliament, along with the other Greens and in alliance with the Independents.

One wonders about the likes of Tom Mulcair running as an Independent too in his old riding. The day the Dippers dumped him is the day they died.

It's time for the Centrist Coalition! In a minority government, highly likely from what the polls indicate, it could be the tail that wags the wimps.

What Schreiner has is the ability to speak in complete, well-informed sentences but without coming off as the least bit patronizing or condescending.

Mulcair had that too, albeit his personality is a bit sharper around the edges, but not in a way that I found irksome.

Schreiner's greatest strength is his ability to read a room/audience and talk with them, not at them.

****

Side note on the idea of Mulcair as a Green............:

- He was a provincial Liberal in Quebec and resigned cabinet on principle over a land-use plan affecting a provincial park that he felt was harmful to the environment.

-He joined the NDP federally.

-He was turfed by an eco-minded extremist set within the NDP.

-If he finished his political career w/the Greens there would be rich irony in spades.

 

[Jasmine18]

Ford's cuts hurt more people then the SNC scandal. That will leave a lasting mark.

Conservatives are screwed in Ontario. They will win their usual seats that are full of hicks but will struggle in any urban area.

You underestimate how much people find Trudeau annoying..

A lot of liberal vote from 2015 will stay home... I am certain of it.

 

[steveintoronto]

If (Mulcair) finished his political career w/the Greens there would be rich irony in spades.

Former NDP leader predicts NDP voters might look to Green Party in 2019
Published Sunday, February 3, 2019 7:00AM EST
Amid record-breaking fundraising numbers from the Green Party and what leader Elizabeth May called “a rise in support overall,” former NDP leader Thomas Mulcair says the Green Party might woo progressive voters in the 2019 election.
“Progressives are looking for a home on environmental issues,” Mulcair said on an episode of CTV Question Period airing Sunday.

“Now people are seeing the Liberals, who talked a good game on environment, buying a pipeline for $4.5 billion, wanting more production in the oilsands. Mr. Singh has now decided he’s going to support a liquefied natural gas pipeline, so people who believe that environmental issues should be top of mind are…going to start paying attention to Elizabeth May’s Green Party,” he said.

It’s a theory that has teeth when confronted with fundraising figures.

The Green Party posted its best fourth-quarter fundraising numbers ever, raking in just shy of $1.5 million dollars. The party also had its strongest ever non-election year fundraising intake at a hefty $3.1 million. They're nipping at the heels of the NDP, who had their lowest fourth quarter fundraising result in eight years and took in just $5.2 million for the entire year.

May also attributes the fundraising number to her party’s consistency.

"We are not a party that flips around looking for what’s the flavour of the day. We're quite honest about what we believe, we've done our research, we talk to people," she said.

The Green Party leader has high hopes for the upcoming federal election. She said her goal is to win seats right across the country -- and May said her party might get a big break in one province in particular.

"We could get a break in Quebec. We're looking at rising support in Quebec that's really surprising people on the ground," she said.[...]

https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/for...s-might-look-to-green-party-in-2019-1.4279603

Power Play on CTV regularly features Mulcair, every time I see his appearances, I lament the loss of him in the House. He was brilliant as the leader of the Opposition, even if I didn't agree with his every point.

Haven't watched his yesterday appearance yet, just accessing now:
https://www.ctvnews.ca/video?binId=1.811563

 

[Videodrome]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1138979368993206273

The CPC thinks she is a good candidate.

 

[steveintoronto]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1138979368993206273

The CPC thinks she is a good candidate.

Hey, c'mon. She at least brighter than Ford. Or let's flip that over, he's not as bright as she is...

What fffing idiots:

Only in Canada such doofuses eh? They get to drive, vote and procreate. Oh yeah, and run for office. And other doofuses (doofii?) vote for them.

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https://www.biopak.com.au/products/takeaway-containers

How does the rest of the developed world do it, let alone have a higher standard of living, higher average income and better quality of life? Perhaps they also have a higher awareness?

Edit to Add: Thank God most if not all of the Twitter replies get it.

Here's one of the best:

 

[Videodrome]

Is that boxed water stuff good?

 

[narduch]

You underestimate how much people find Trudeau annoying..

A lot of liberal vote from 2015 will stay home... I am certain of it.

You underestimate how much people hate Ford. It's getting ugly out there for Conservative volunteers in Ontario.

 

[Jasmine18]

You underestimate how much people hate Ford. It's getting ugly out there for Conservative volunteers in Ontario.

The issue is not an increase of votes for the Tories in Ontario.

The issue is if Trudeau can keep all the votes from 2015 and I don't think he will as Trudeau is quite unlikeable compared to before. I think if people hate Ford and Trudeau, they will just sit home.

I do accept the only reason Trudeau has a chance is due to Ford but I think many here should realize The Liberals are still going to lose seats in Ontario, whether its 5 or 20 is where the Ford factor will play in.

 

[Hopkins123]

You underestimate how much people hate Ford. It's getting ugly out there for Conservative volunteers in Ontario.

You overestimate your own biased worldview and project it onto others. Look at the current seat projections: http://338canada.com/map.htm

Notice the many CPC pick-ups it's projecting as June 9, 2019, in spite of all this alleged and highly overblown Ford backlash. CPC may likely lose Oshawa to the NDP but sweep most of York Region and could pickup some seats in Peel Region. And the 3 most likely City of Toronto pickups are appearing more and more blue with every new projection forecast moving from toss-ups column to near safe.

 

[Hopkins123]

The issue is not an increase of votes for the Tories in Ontario.

The issue is if Trudeau can keep all the votes from 2015 and I don't think he will as Trudeau is quite unlikeable compared to before. I think if people hate Ford and Trudeau, they will just sit home.

I do accept the only reason Trudeau has a chance is due to Ford but I think many here should realize The Liberals are still going to lose seats in Ontario, whether its 5 or 20 is where the Ford factor will play in.

No way in Hades is Trudeau keeping everything he had. The CPC is leading now in Ontario still, although narrowly with 52 seat to the Libs 48 with the NDP at 19 and Greens at 1. But as my post above points out, vote splits could affect everything in ridings like Etobicoke Centre or Mississauga Lakeshore or the 3 Don Valleys where Lib support is very tepid. If I were a Lib supporter I wouldn't brag about it either. If their rallying cry is just to oppose Conservative Premiers without substance, then sitting this one out might be best for the country as a whole.

But I'm not worried... yet. CPC is leading everywhere in the country except Quebec, and even there CPC could wind up with 16-17 seats.

 

[steveintoronto]

Is that boxed water stuff good?

Depends if it tastes of the plastic pipe it comes through at the bottling plant. I'm told that it is habit forming...

 

[adma]

You overestimate your own biased worldview and project it onto others. Look at the current seat projections: http://338canada.com/map.htm

You're *really* fond of using "current seat projections" as the be-all and end-all. To repeat, that's like figuring oneself out to be a geographic and navigational expert simply because one knows how to use their talking GPS. Whereas those of us who're *truly* map-literate don't need to be martyr to such tools as a crutch, and know enough to allow for random chance and backroad diversions--from here to e-day is more than just a direct point-A-to-point-B.

Personally, I'd rather pore through past poll-by-poll, riding-by-riding stats to get a preliminary feel for the lay of the electoral land--plenty of maps where one can do so here

election-atlas.ca - Federal

It may be "past data"--but hey, just like maps vs talking GPS. Map literacy involves having and nurturing a preliminary grasp of preexisting conditions.

Talking GPS martyrdom denies such "preliminary grasp" is necessary, because, you know, Siri will take you there. It's not about the past, but strictly, bluntly, about the real-time present and future, you don't need to engage to anything other than where Siri is guiding you to.

Translation: Hopkins123 is overestimating his own stunted worldview and projecting it onto others--and my metaphorical example *literalizes* the "stunted worldview" concept...

 

[Jasmine18]

You're *really* fond of using "current seat projections" as the be-all and end-all. To repeat, that's like figuring oneself out to be a geographic and navigational expert simply because one knows how to use their talking GPS. Whereas those of us who're *truly* map-literate don't need to be martyr to such tools as a crutch, and know enough to allow for random chance and backroad diversions--from here to e-day is more than just a direct point-A-to-point-B.

Personally, I'd rather pore through past poll-by-poll, riding-by-riding stats to get a preliminary feel for the lay of the electoral land--plenty of maps where one can do so here

election-atlas.ca - Federal

It may be "past data"--but hey, just like maps vs talking GPS. Map literacy involves having and nurturing a preliminary grasp of preexisting conditions.

Talking GPS martyrdom denies such "preliminary grasp" is necessary, because, you know, Siri will take you there. It's not about the past, but strictly, bluntly, about the real-time present and future, you don't need to engage to anything other than where Siri is guiding you to.

Translation: Hopkins123 is overestimating his own stunted worldview and projecting it onto others--and my metaphorical example *literalizes* the "stunted worldview" concept...

But you think Trudeau is gonna keep all the votes from 2015 just because of Doug Ford and I dont think you realize how much of a shine Trudeau has lost.

Ford is not gonna destroy the Tories in Ontario, he would limit them..