2018 Provincial Election Transit Promises

[Rainforest]

If the province owned the subway it would make fare integration a whole lot easier.

If you enter the system by dome bus service (GO, TTC, Miway, BT/Zum,York/Viva,Durham, whatever) a tap onto the subway is free.....and all the fare revenue goes to the originating agency.....a trip that starts with the subway, the province gets the revenue and any last mile bus connection/extension is free.

In theory that's right, but I assume the City will keep all revenues and will have to fund all operating costs (drivers, fare collectors, electricity, stations upkeep etc). The province will only pay for capital repairs, and will get to include the subway system as an "asset" on their books to offset part of the provincial debt (even though it can't be sold and therefore isn't really an "asset").

 

[Rainforest]

I haven't seen the details yet, so I'm not aware of the context. The current plan is about $42 billion. Government has already committed to about $8 billion for the 4 Transit City lines and has certainly made enough noise about the $11 billion for the DRL and Yonge North.

$5 billion sounds like a massive cut to me, if it's not in addition to what's already announced. But if it's somewhat vague - then that's probably what it is. A huge cut from the existing plan. Probably cancel everything except Yonge North. They have to finish Eglinton this time, but I expect they cancel Finch West, Sheppard East, the Scarborough RT replacement (whatever that be)/Danforth extension, DRL, Waterfront, etc.

I think they explicitly said that Finch West LRT will not be cancelled, and they explicitly want to take over the Danforth extension so it can't be cancelled either.

Sheppard East might get cancelled; it has been in limbo for several years, and the $300 million in federal money previously allocated to that project got recently transfered to Finch West.

Waterfront has no committed funding, and is very unlikely to be funded by a PC government with no MPPs elected in the downtown core. I would hope though that the City is capable of raising the funding for Waterfront East LRT on its own, given that the amount needed is very modest compared to all the subway projects.

DRL is a big question mark. It makes most sense out of all their subway promises, but is the most expensive piece as well.

 

[agoraflaneur]

My first thought is a more fundamental thought- how will they pay for their transit plans (or any of their plans)? When the numbers don't add up, which of these promises would be first to get shelved?

Otherwise, it is a startling (in a good way) change from previous conservative plans and, although not entirely great, much better than expected.

Still, it is - like the rest of the document - over-promising. Even if the $5B figure is net new, it would not be enough tot cover their 3 subway plans. Frankly, it wouldn't be enough to cover the DRL long:

DRL South: $6.8 Billion
DRL North: $5.6 Billion

At least that is according to this: https://www.insidetoronto.com/news-...close-to-7-billion-for-eight-stations-report/
Are we assuming the the DRL promise is just for the southern portion - and do we believe that the Yonge extension could be undertaken without the DRL north?

-What happens when the true cost of the Scarborough subway inches closer to $5B? Where will the money come from?

-At face value, uploading the subway while giving the fares back to the city is fine - great, even.

-Love the fare integration pledge. But again - who will pay the lost revenue to the TTC or other agencies? Where is the costing?

This plan throws a lot of money around, all while cutting taxes. I just fundamentally don't believe it will be implementable. Hopefully, some of these good ideas will make their way into a debate and get other politicians on board.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

imo the key promise is their promise to leave existing projects intact as it is. Ive witnessed way too many flip flops based on ideological reasons to the detriment of the public taxpayers.
If Brown actually lives up to this promise I will actually be very impressed and will get my support for relection .

You oughta ask yourself what exactly "existing projects" means.

They seem to define it as anything that is currently under construction, or that the province is contractually obligated to build. So if its not under construction, consider it canceled (with the exception of the SSE)

 

[TheTigerMaster]

My first thought is a more fundamental thought- how will they pay for their transit plans (or any of their plans)? When the numbers don't add up, which of these promises would be first to get shelved?

Otherwise, it is a startling (in a good way) change from previous conservative plans and, although not entirely great, much better than expected.

Still, it is - like the rest of the document - over-promising. Even if the $5B figure is net new, it would not be enough tot cover their 3 subway plans. Frankly, it wouldn't be enough to cover the DRL long:

DRL South: $6.8 Billion
DRL North: $5.6 Billion

At least that is according to this: https://www.insidetoronto.com/news-...close-to-7-billion-for-eight-stations-report/
Are we assuming the the DRL promise is just for the southern portion - and do we believe that the Yonge extension could be undertaken without the DRL north?

-What happens when the true cost of the Scarborough subway inches closer to $5B? Where will the money come from?

-At face value, uploading the subway while giving the fares back to the city is fine - great, even.

-Love the fare integration pledge. But again - who will pay the lost revenue to the TTC or other agencies? Where is the costing?

This plan throws a lot of money around, all while cutting taxes. I just fundamentally don't believe it will be implementable. Hopefully, some of these good ideas will make their way into a debate and get other politicians on board.

Yes, it's just for the DRL south.

 

[kEiThZ]

No one understands the difference between all-day 2-way - which we just about have now on 4 lines, and RER. In terms of votes, promising RER instead of all-way 2-day gives them very little.

An excellent point. However, I am still surprised. RER would be a real vote getter on whoever's watch it happened. Might not help them this election. But would be killer if they executed on their watch. So that's I'm surprised they didn't go for it.

I've got to read this. It really mentions 416? I'd have assumed it was mostly 905, or perhaps some bizarre underused Etobicrack line.

I was referring to the subways they have proposed in their platform. DRL, YN, SSE.

One thing we are all forgetting about is the infrastructure bank. A lot of funding for transit is likely to come from the Bank.

Excellent point. I suspect, at least someone inside the party may have already approached the feds. That said, the CIB has a specific mandate. And a lot of it is about bringing in private sector capital. There's not much scope for that in subway construction.

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

I think Sheppard subway would be immediately left out, while DRL and YNSE would compete for the funding. Hard to say which of the two wins. DRL is more urgent, but YNSE gives more votes and isn't unreasonable (except for putting even more pressure on Yonge downstream).

I think they explicitly said that Finch West LRT will not be cancelled, and they explicitly want to take over the Danforth extension so it can't be cancelled either.

Sheppard East might get cancelled; it has been in limbo for several years, and the $300 million in federal money previously allocated to that project got recently transfered to Finch West.

Waterfront has no committed funding, and is very unlikely to be funded by a PC government with no MPPs elected in the downtown core. I would hope though that the City is capable of raising the funding for Waterfront East LRT on its own, given that the amount needed is very modest compared to all the subway projects.

DRL is a big question mark. It makes most sense out of all their subway promises, but is the most expensive piece as well.

My first thought is a more fundamental thought- how will they pay for their transit plans (or any of their plans)? When the numbers don't add up, which of these promises would be first to get shelved?

Otherwise, it is a startling (in a good way) change from previous conservative plans and, although not entirely great, much better than expected.

Still, it is - like the rest of the document - over-promising. Even if the $5B figure is net new, it would not be enough tot cover their 3 subway plans. Frankly, it wouldn't be enough to cover the DRL long:

DRL South: $6.8 Billion
DRL North: $5.6 Billion

At least that is according to this: https://www.insidetoronto.com/news-...close-to-7-billion-for-eight-stations-report/
Are we assuming the the DRL promise is just for the southern portion - and do we believe that the Yonge extension could be undertaken without the DRL north?

-What happens when the true cost of the Scarborough subway inches closer to $5B? Where will the money come from?

-At face value, uploading the subway while giving the fares back to the city is fine - great, even.

-Love the fare integration pledge. But again - who will pay the lost revenue to the TTC or other agencies? Where is the costing?

This plan throws a lot of money around, all while cutting taxes. I just fundamentally don't believe it will be implementable. Hopefully, some of these good ideas will make their way into a debate and get other politicians on board.

Yes, it's just for the DRL south.

I think the DRL might get put on hold again, and Sheppard Subway, Yonge North, Eglinton East gets built. I think the DRL should be built, but it should be DRL long. Let`s get it right the first time.

 

[UD2]

In this case, the reason to take over subway building is to build the Yonge North Extension. The PCs know that left to the city this project will not be built anytime within the next 30 years, so they have to take over in order to deliver this to their base.

Those of you folks dreaming of the DRL need to look at this realistically. The DRL does very little for anyone who live north of St Clair, which means this project is aimed squarely at a very strong Liberal base. Why would the PC government build a subway for Liberal voters unless they can win the votes. So if you want the DRL, downtown Toronto better start voting conservatives.

They mentioned Sheppard line because if the 4 ridings affected by the Shepard subway extension votes PC (and it’s likely this time around) that line will take the DRL funding and will get built first.

So my ranking follows if PC wins

Yonge North Extension
Sheppard East
DRL Long (short version won’t make sense for the PC)

 

[44 North]

Not really an economics kinda guy so was wondering if the Prov is planning on owning the subway assets, just the assets for new builds, or neither (?). Seems a bit convoluted to take control of all TO's subways then contract out maintenance/operations back to Toronto. Sure the Prov has the lucrative larger capital for system expansion...but we own the subways. Four of a kind to their ace high. Can't fold that. How bout being a reliable funding partner, and if they genuinely care about inter-regionalness finally figuring out fare integration.

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

In this case, the reason to take over subway building is to build the Yonge North Extension. The PCs know that left to the city this project will not be built anytime within the next 30 years, so they have to take over in order to deliver this to their base.

Those of you folks dreaming of the DRL need to look at this realistically. The DRL does very little for anyone who live north of St Clair, which means this project is aimed squarely at a very strong Liberal base. Why would the PC government build a subway for Liberal voters unless they can win the votes. So if you want the DRL, downtown Toronto better start voting conservatives.

They mentioned Sheppard line because if the 4 ridings affected by the Shepard subway extension votes PC (and it’s likely this time around) that line will take the DRL funding and will get built first.

So my ranking follows if PC wins

Yonge North Extension
Sheppard East
DRL Long (short version won’t make sense for the PC)

Even just going to Pope will relive congestion. But it's true, DRL short is not great city planning.

 

[drum118]

In this case, the reason to take over subway building is to build the Yonge North Extension. The PCs know that left to the city this project will not be built anytime within the next 30 years, so they have to take over in order to deliver this to their base.

Those of you folks dreaming of the DRL need to look at this realistically. The DRL does very little for anyone who live north of St Clair, which means this project is aimed squarely at a very strong Liberal base. Why would the PC government build a subway for Liberal voters unless they can win the votes. So if you want the DRL, downtown Toronto better start voting conservatives.

They mentioned Sheppard line because if the 4 ridings affected by the Shepard subway extension votes PC (and it’s likely this time around) that line will take the DRL funding and will get built first.

So my ranking follows if PC wins

Yonge North Extension
Sheppard East
DRL Long (short version won’t make sense for the PC)

Any DRL short of Finch, though it should be Steeles, will do nothing for the Yonge Line.

Taking Yonge north of Steeles will crash the system before the DRL is built. It will help York money to help to pay its diet down, but will not do much for them in the long run.

Once Sheppard extension is built, the PC if in power will quickly realize it was a mistake once they see the huge subsidizes it will require and quickly either close it or convert it to LRT, but better to close it like the current section should be today.

 

[salsa]

Steve Del Duca has some thoughts on the PC platform. There might be some truth here, however he's the last person who should be accusing anybody for "saying anything" for votes.

 

[kEiThZ]

The public is past fear-mongering though. That's really going to be a tough sell for the Liberals, given the mood for change. They have to bring their A game on the platform.

Personally, I am somewhat ticked that the Liberals seemed to prioritized virtually everything over infrastructure. So I'll be taking that into account when I vote.

 

[kEiThZ]

Anybody know what the delta is to go from AD2W to RER? Is it a situation where if the PCs go ahead with AD2W, they still need to finish all the enabling works going on? Would it simply mean that electrification and conversion to RER gets delayed or a few years, with work after full AD2W? Or is it one of those situations where AD2W does not move the ball substantially on RER?

I am still surprised they aren't pushing for RER. Room for Liberals to differentiate and capture 905 votes....

 

[nfitz]

The public is past fear-mongering though. That's really going to be a tough sell for the Liberals, given the mood for change. They have to bring their A game on the platform.

Past fear-mongering? I doubt it. There are already a lot of ads playing up Brown's history of bigoted and misogynistic political activities when he was with the Conservatives. You don't think that the Liberals won't be fear mongering to push NDP support to Liberals.

And besides, Brown has already promised to reduce the minimum wage. Fear mongering not needed.

Personally, I am somewhat ticked that the Liberals seemed to prioritized virtually everything over infrastructure. So I'll be taking that into account when I vote.

Given the large cuts the Tories already promised to RER, only going for two-way all-day, and shelving around 80 transit projects, it's pretty clear that another Liberal mandate would bring us a lot more transit than a Brown government, who are clearly going to have to cut something to pay for some very large tax cuts.

Anyone thinking voting PC - particularly this brand of right-wing PC rather than the red Tory brand espoused by Tory and Davis - in order to increase transit infrastructure is kidding themselves.