2018 Provincial Election Transit Promises

[kEiThZ]

Because it's a cut in funding. The current transit plan very clearly differentiates between two-way all-day GO service, and RER.

This is a surprise. Really thought they go harder and faster with GO RER given the payoff on 905 votes.

Instead they are prioritizing subways in the 416. A place they don't stand much of a chance of substantial pick ups.

 

[innsertnamehere]

Because it's a cut in funding. The current transit plan very clearly differentiates between two-way all-day GO service, and RER.

Is it though? the document heavily discusses sticking with existing commitments - I would take that at more value than what is likely a mislabelling of the program. That same sentence also claims that the Hamilton LRT is currently under construction, which it clearly isn't.

Those sorts of details shouldn't be read into from a 3 page policy document. That is the sort of detail that will get questioned out of the PCs from the media in the coming months..

 

[rbt]

^the document makes it pretty clear its net new money.

It makes it clear it's above all tendered (or expected to be tendered shortly) work.

I see nothing to indicate it's above things which are hand-wavy promises at a currently unknown future year.

 

[rbt]

Is it though? the document heavily discusses sticking with existing commitments.

And everything they list off as examples, except HSR, will have an RFQ or better issued prior to the election. The exact meaning of commitment isn't specified.

I interpret commitment as a general contractor has invested some work on the project.

Also, promises rarely get larger after the election than they were during campaigning. They're typically tightened after staff have a whack at costing them.

 

[nfitz]

I would be very surprised if that $5B was entirely new money. If it is, the PCs need to make a bit of noise about that.

I haven't seen the details yet, so I'm not aware of the context. The current plan is about $42 billion. Government has already committed to about $8 billion for the 4 Transit City lines and has certainly made enough noise about the $11 billion for the DRL and Yonge North.

$5 billion sounds like a massive cut to me, if it's not in addition to what's already announced. But if it's somewhat vague - then that's probably what it is. A huge cut from the existing plan. Probably cancel everything except Yonge North. They have to finish Eglinton this time, but I expect they cancel Finch West, Sheppard East, the Scarborough RT replacement (whatever that be)/Danforth extension, DRL, Waterfront, etc.

 

[nfitz]

This is a surprise. Really thought they go harder and faster with GO RER given the payoff on 905 votes.

No one understands the difference between all-day 2-way - which we just about have now on 4 lines, and RER. In terms of votes, promising RER instead of all-way 2-day gives them very little. This is not about improving service - this is about cutting spending and still getting elected.

Instead they are prioritizing subways in the 416. A place they don't stand much of a chance of substantial pick ups.

I've got to read this. It really mentions 416? I'd have assumed it was mostly 905, or perhaps some bizarre underused Etobicrack line.

 

[DopeyFish]

One thing we are all forgetting about is the infrastructure bank. A lot of funding for transit is likely to come from the Bank.

A -lot- of subway funding is going to come from the bank. Potentially upwards of $50 billion, especially considering GTA Subways are going to be easily the most sought after projects due to their short and long term revenue generation potential.

Have to keep that in mind.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

So with this platform, we seem to be getting Eglinton East LRT (paid for by Toronto), two-way all-day GO, and one of the following three subways: DRL, YNSE, and Sheppard East (unless there is a substantial increase in funding). RER may or may not be canceled (it’s omission in the report is not inspiring

Hamilton, Hurontario and Finch might go ahead if the Liberals sign the contracts soon enough.

Especially if RER is cut, this PC proposal would be a massive cut in GTHA transit expansion.

 

[rbt]

A -lot- of subway funding is going to come from the bank. Potentially upwards of $50 billion, especially considering GTA Subways are going to be easily the most sought after projects due to their short and long term revenue generation potential.

Returns?

I wasn't aware the Infrastructure Bank model included a portion of income/corporate tax revenue. There are no direct returns from a subway.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

And everything they list off as examples, except HSR, will have an RFQ or better issued prior to the election. The exact meaning of commitment isn't specified.

I interpret commitment as a general contractor has invested some work on the project.

Also, promises rarely get larger after the election than they were during campaigning. They're typically tightened after staff have a whack at costing them.

Keep in mind that for RER there isn’t any single contract that will see it fully implemented. If electrification is underway by time the election rolls around, this does not mean that the PC government would have to sign contracts to see the other components of RER fall into place.

Yes, this is nitpicking, but this is necessary when they refuse to explicitly commit to RER.

 

[rbt]

Keep in mind that for RER there isn’t any single contract that will see it fully implemented. If electrification is underway by time the election rolls around, this does not mean that the PC government would have to sign contracts to see the other components of RER fall into place.

Agreed entirely. I expect the near-term (2025) result will be close to the McGuinty 2-way all day promise (hourly service on GO owned lines; diesel). The 401 tunnel, Barrie grade separation, Union East/West corridor enhancement projects, will be completed; they're all useful for peak period service.

SmartTrack, or rather what pieces Tory can keep alive, will be interesting.

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

del duca responds

https://twitter.com/LibPressSec/status/934450531891900416

 

[DopeyFish]

Returns?

I wasn't aware the Infrastructure Bank model included a portion of income/corporate tax revenue. There are no direct returns from a subway.

Property Tax incrementation and fare surcharges!

 

[cplchanb]

imo the key promise is their promise to leave existing projects intact as it is. Ive witnessed way too many flip flops based on ideological reasons to the detriment of the public taxpayers.
If Brown actually lives up to this promise I will actually be very impressed and will get my support for relection .

 

[Rainforest]

It's a bit ambiguous, in my opinion. Yours is the more optimistic situation. But even then, $6.2 Billion is not enough to fully fund the DRL, let alone the YNSE and the Sheppard Subway extension. So at least two of those three projects will be cancelled, unless the federal government is exceptionally generous.

I think Sheppard subway would be immediately left out, while DRL and YNSE would compete for the funding. Hard to say which of the two wins. DRL is more urgent, but YNSE gives more votes and isn't unreasonable (except for putting even more pressure on Yonge downstream).