The only question here, for the PCs, is, who can deliver more seats in the GTA. That's really what they need to win. They don't need to win anywhere near even a majority of the seats in the GTA. But if they get a third of the seats between the GTA and Ottawa, they are like to form government. The Tories have to flip 15 seats for a minority, if they keep what they have. The rural parts of this province hate Wynne. So it comes to flipping 15 Liberal held seats (for a minority) out of the ~50 in the GTA and Ottawa. Tough. But definitely not impossible.
It's not that simple. There's also 17 new ridings - 15 from the new federal distribution, and the 2 new northern ridings. The PCs probably aren't getting the northern ridings.
And many of the new ridings are in urban centres where the Consevatives do poorly, or in parts of the 905 that the Liberals hold. The only PC riding in Toronto, Mississauga, Brampton is Raymond Cho's, and it's quite changed by redistribution. It could be at risk. Meanwhile one of the two NDP ridings in Toronto may well go Liberal, with DiNovo's resignation - she only held it by 500 votes, and now her name is gone. Perhaps only Toronto-Danforth is safe; though the NDP have a very strong candidate in local councillor Janet Davis in traditionally NDP Beaches-East York, which has been flip-flopping everywhere - so who knows.
I could see them getting at half a dozen seats in Scarborough and Etobicoke alone. I think people underestimate Ford at their peril.
I don't, if it get's that scary, the significant NDP support will run Liberal. Scarborough only picked up 1 riding (now 6) while Etobicoke/York stays at 5. North York(ish) picks ups one seat for 6 - and surely Liberal Shelley Carroll is a shoe-in here, it was all part of her ward.
Meanwhile Toronto itself (+ East York) rises from 6 to 8.
Maybe they pick up 2 or 3, but perhaps they lose their only one in Scarborough.
And the further you get away from Toronto, where many of the new ridings, and even existing Conservative ridings, are suburban, and not huge PC majorities either ... the likes of Doug Ford will push some traditionally Conservatives to Liberal ... and scare the NDP voters. I actually think that Wynne would hold, with at least a minority, and quite likely a majority, with NDP support collapsing (though the only post Ford/Fedili poll actually showed he NDP picking up 6% in 905 and Southwestern Onario. In 905 at the expense of the undecided, but in SW Ontario also at the expense of the Conservatives, where I expect Ford would play worst.
Was that really necessary? Come on.
Yes. Voting Doug Ford in the last city election? And Rob Ford before that.
That's pretty polite ... who does that? If you are conservative, vote Tory, sure. But Ford?!?