2018 Political Prognostications and Hopes

[Bayer]

With his waffling concerning the homeless, his insistence on having the East Gardiner rebuilt and keeping taxes stable, his ineffectual handling of the transit file and, well, just about everything, I hope Tory loses the next election; it might have been a relief to have a civilized mayor after Ford, but it's just not enough. We need a credible centre-left candidate.

A minority Liberal government is my prediction in Ontario. Regardless of how unpopular Wynne has become, the Conservatives don't offer anything constructive that won't be compensated by service cuts. I would normally vote NPD, but they are too timid.

I don't think changes in provincial governments will have a durable impact on the federal Liberals. Alberta is historically hostile to Ottawa, and nothing is yet certain in Québec. Ontario is rarely a source of conflict with the federal government. The Conservatives need the NDP to be strong so the left-leaning vote will be divided. The chances of Singh becoming very popular in Québec are slim and the NDP will continue to languish. The Conservatives will remain devoid of constructive ideas and mired in irrelevancies inspired by their far-right elements.

 

[Northern Light]

Looking back at my predictions, I didn't have a great crystal ball last year. May have to trade mine in.

Of course, my projections did not account for the Brown debacle, Ford as candidate for Premier never mind winning, nor did i foresee the change in the size of council.

 

[BurlOak]

Local : John Tory wins keeping the hard right and left out of office in Toronto
Provincal: Wynne is soundly defeated but I doubt it, so I hope for a minority government and Wynne replaced as leader
Federal: Will be a trying year for the Liberals if Ontario, Quebec and Alberta swing to the right.

Pretty accurate.